CORONAVIRUS

[Hamish]

Workplace outbreak no social distancing or work place bubbles to reduce the outbreak numbers and close contacts. Lack of workplace lft testing.
kids in families affected prob taken it to school too. 

Needs to shut down for a deep clean and test to return program. 

[john.r.davies]

6 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Probably very few vaccianted, workers in the factory looked on TV report to be mostly in 20s to 40s.  Peter

There you are, Peter.  Spector was referring to the vaccinated, either once, or twice.    For them, his figures are reassuring, but of course not at al for tbhose who haven't had their jab yet.

Clinic this am contained several students from our Uni (where the clinic is sited), and others from Town in their 40s and less.    Also reassuring, but no help for my anxiety for Son, 42 yo, in London, for whom there is no sign as yet of even a first vaccination.      The NHS's Vaccination programme is most successful, but patchy.

John

[Bleednipple]

Worth re-stating Spector's risk figures ie chance of catching symptomatic covid in next 24 hrs: 1 in 46,000 for an unvaccinated person, falling to 1 in 114,000 for someone 12+ days past second dose. So risk of transmission at present is pretty negligible at an individual level.

At the same time, we are not going to reach zero incidence at population level, there will continue to be localised outbreaks in workplaces or communities with high proportions of non-immune people. So if some folks are waiting for a completely covid-free Britain until they resume normal daily activities then they're going to be waiting an extremely long time I'm afraid.

I think now is the right time to re-invoke the seasonal flu comparison. In people over 50, who have now all been vaccinated (unless they've chosen not to be), the risk of serious illness or death in the now extremely unlikely event that they do contract covid is now substantially lower than in it would be for seasonal flu (CFR about 0.8% in over-65s - US 2018/19 season). I don't know anyone, pre-covid, who stayed at home through the winter due to the flu risk.

Obviously the possible emergence, and importation into the UK, of a serious vaccine-evading variant of covid is a distinct possibility. But we live with a similar possibility of a highly virulent seasonal strain of flu popping up every single year. But of course until that happens we don't all stay at home just in case, or less still keep laws in place forbidding us on pain of criminal prosecution to see our families. If it does happen, we will need to react appropriately and quickly of course but the risk of that happening is not in any meaningful way contingent on the maintenance of strict UK restrictions meanwhile.

I was personally frustrated at the beginning of the covid pandemic by some spurious comparisons with flu. However at this point I think the comparison is a useful one. The situation is now completely different than it was last year, due to the substantially complete vaccination of the significantly at-risk population. I now believe all mandatory restrictions should be lifted as they are not justified as necessary to avoid overwhelming the health system, which was the original justification (and the right one, last March and again last autumn). Individuals who for whatever reason wish to remain hyper vigilant can of course continue to behave as they wish.

Nigel

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Bleednipple

[Peter Cobbold]

India.

Dr John Campbell has unearthed an Indian paper, pre-covid, describing high percentage of Indian population is D3-deficient. Havent checked out paper myself.But suspect it explains much of the current catastrophe, after lack of political guidance on social distnacing etc. Air pollution eg Delhi absorbes UVB .

The level of deficiency is worse than UK's especially in our summer. And Caucasians are mostly more responsive in thier immune cells to 25(OH)D than SE Asians. Terrible.

Peter

 

 

 

[SuzanneH]

 

 

 

[john.r.davies]

"A study has shown that sunnier areas have fewer Coronavirus deaths."

Ahem!  One word. India.

[Peter Cobbold]

1 minute ago, john.r.davies said:

"A study has shown that sunnier areas have fewer Coronavirus deaths."

Ahem!  One word. India.

Wrong. watch Campbell's talk above. Deficiency there is worse than UK.

 

[Peter Cobbold]

3 hours ago, SuzanneH said:

 

 

 

Unlikely to be D3 as sun too low iin sky in UK Jan-April to allow UVB to act to make D3 in skin.  UVA has too little energy todo the job. The  NO idea might be right, but it has a v erry short half-life so I doubt it will get beyond the skin. There may be unknown , yet to be discovered, actions of sunlight.

Peter

[SuzanneH]

35 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

"A study has shown that sunnier areas have fewer Coronavirus deaths."

Ahem!  One word. India.

Have you not noticed that many Indian people, I see them every day, have extremely dark circles under their eyes. I also suffer from this especially during the winter and when at school and when working full time in an office. I feel so much better when I am able to get outside into the sunshine. This also probably accounts for why I have always, from 1973, enjoyed open top motoring when the majority of females do not.

I am not sure but I am given to understand that a lot of the Indian climate is similar to ours and often much colder.

[Peter Cobbold]

Sunlight is good for us, We evolved in Africa with sunshine all year round. Around 20,000 years ago migrations out of Africa northwards sufffered from poor winter sunshine but are thought to have eaten fish,so topping up D3 (unkowingly). The inventioon of famring 8000 years ago removed fish from the diet and population exploded. Rickets will have become a huge evolutionary driver to overcome low D3 levels because the pelvic birth canal narrows in richetic females leading the death in childbirth. The result is bones evovled very rapidly indeed to work well even in low D3. However the selection pressure to work at low D3 has been too slow to correct the many older-age diseases  we see in vitamindwiki. Worse the criteria used ot define defiiciency in UK etc is   based upon bone and rickets.   In immune cell studies some evidence exitst that aa bout one third of caucasians have evolved greater responsivity to D3 (n tall, fair skinned, northern scandinavians).

People tend to enjoy lving in houses with big windows, and this affinity for sun may be part of our evolution. But UVB needed to make D3 does not pass glass!

If any newbies have recntly joined this thread here is a recent review by Michael Holick who discovered the active hormone ca 1970.

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/7/2097/htm

the figure is a neat summary of  D3;s importnace:

 

Peter

[john.r.davies]

Suzanne said "A study has shown that sunnier areas have fewer Coronavirus deaths."

I said Ahem!  One word. India.

Peter C replied: Wrong. watch Campbell's talk above. Deficiency there is worse than UK.

 

Something is wrong then.  The BBC says "India Covid: Delhi builds makeshift funeral pyres as deaths climb..... India has recorded more than a million Covid-19 cases in just a few days ...The rising number of deaths - 380 were recorded in Delhi alone on Monday - has left crematoriums in urgent need of space. "   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56897970

You can't have it both ways - "fewer Coronaviirous deaths" and "deficiency worse than UK"

Edited April 28, 2021 by john.r.davies

[stillp]

John, I think that Suzanne's and Peter's comments, and the appalling statistics from India just show that sunnier areas do not necessarily ensure adequate D3 levels.

Pete

[Motorsport Mickey]

37 minutes ago, stillp said:

John, I think that Suzanne's and Peter's comments, and the appalling statistics from India just show that sunnier areas do not necessarily ensure adequate D3 levels.

Pete

Ahem...one word Florida,

exactly the same problem...from memory 40% insufficiency. Put people where there is a strong sun and they avoid it...and co incidentally the D3 they would gain from it.

Mick Richards

[SuzanneH]

7 minutes ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

Ahem...one word Florida,

exactly the same problem...from memory 40% insufficiency. Put people where there is a strong sun and they avoid it...and co incidentally the D3 they would gain from it.

Mick Richards

 

Quite so Mick.

The Indian population that surrounds us here in Hayes, Middlesex can be seen Summer and Winter and all days in between swathed in Robes , head coverings of all sorts and always wearing a “ Hoody”  with their ears and eyes covered.

They or their children are rarely seen out in their gardens, preferring to stay inside.

[RogerH]

Ahem - two syllabales   

 

as an India reported stated on TV yesterday - 'do not believe the stats that are coming out of India'

 

Roger

[john.r.davies]

2 hours ago, SuzanneH said:

 

Quite so Mick.

The Indian population that surrounds us here in Hayes, Middlesex can be seen Summer and Winter and all days in between swathed in Robes , head coverings of all sorts and always wearing a “ Hoody”  with their ears and eyes covered.

They or their children are rarely seen out in their gardens, preferring to stay inside.

Suzanne, you were referring to "Sunnier areas", not Middlesex.    Sure, Southall probably gets more sun than Smethick or Southport, but compared to India....

[Peter Cobbold]

Watching street scenes form India we often we sky that is heavily polluted eg Delhi - UVB doesnt get to ground level. In Calcutta there was blue sky, short shadows so UVB index excellent, but clothing habits negate that: long-sleeved shirts, shawls etc.  Face masks ( essentail of course) reduce sun-exposed skin eliminaitng a  proportion of D3 production.

One of the first videos I posted early last year was by a D3-aware doctor in India, so we can at least hope many medical professionals are using D3 to protect themselves.

Peter

 

[Peter Cobbold]

2 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

Suzanne, you were referring to "Sunnier areas", not Middlesex.    Sure, Southall probably gets more sun than Smethick or Southport, but compared to India....

JOhn. Both the Asian and black populations in UK have lower 25(OH)D than caucasians. Asians are the lower than Afro-Caribbeans, I am told through a preference of avodiong skin darkening thorugh sun-avoidance. Maybe a relict behaviour of the raj?  ( Muslim female dress code ensures that population is lowest of all).  To compund their problems they are all low responders to D3 compared with most Caucasians interms of demethylation of DNA of peripehral blood monocytes-macrophages.   The relationship between sunlight and the immune system is not thereffore a simple matter of "its a sunny place".

Peter

[Motorsport Mickey]

1 hour ago, john.r.davies said:

Suzanne, you were referring to "Sunnier areas", not Middlesex.    Sure, Southall probably gets more sun than Smethick or Southport, but compared to India....

I think Suzanne was referring to the "learned " behaviour of keeping out of the sun (although markedly weaker in the south of England) being a contributory point John. Just as in our more ancient days having a lighter complexion meant you were a richer individual of a higher social order and therefore didn't spend time working in fields outdoor.

  Mick Richards

[Peter Cobbold]

India, prevalence of D3 deficiency. They define deficiency as < 20 ng.ml = 50 nmol/L. For comparison with UK, our winter mean is 50 nmol/L. Despite thier sunshine India is worse on D3 than UK.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6060930/

Peter

[Peter Cobbold]

Angola virus with 31 amino acid changes - "escape mutations" -that are predictd too allow it to avoid antibodies to ealier infections and vaccines

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/04/04/2021.03.30.21254323.full.pdf

Angola and Tanzania in Feb....here soon ?

Peter

[SuzanneH]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:21 PM, Motorsport Mickey said:

I think Suzanne was referring to the "learned " behaviour of keeping out of the sun (although markedly weaker in the south of England) being a contributory point John. Just as in our more ancient days having a lighter complexion meant you were a richer individual of a higher social order and therefore didn't spend time working in fields outdoor.

  Mick Richards

Yes that is correct and I forgot to add that they also live in darkness during the daytime. Those living around us keep their curtains and windows coverings closed day and night , I could not live in a gloom like that not even if you paid me.

[Peter Cobbold]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56944739

I can see how multigenerational living leads to a greater proportion of S Asian cases. But I do not see why that should also explain their greater proportion of ICU admissions and fatalities, adjusted for age etc.  A greater "case fatality rate" points to a biological cause rather than social. Have yet to read Lancet paper, but doubt GPs submitted 25(OH)D measurements.....

Peter

 

[Peter Cobbold]

Calcifediol available otc in Oz and now USA, Canada.  This is "preactivated D3" ( 25(OH)D) that is used in Spain ( Cordoba trail) immediately a pt is admitted with suspected C-19. https://vitamindstopscovid.info/04-calcifediol/

Rather belt and braces for anyone taking 4000-6000 IU pd D3. But could be useful inlieu of Schwalfenberg's hammer.

Peter

[Peter Cobbold]

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1124/rr

a year ago we watched on TV thousands of Indian poor migrating on foot out of Delhi during its lockdown, rasisng concerns that they would spread the virus. But that did not happen. They had no protection from the sun and that may well via a surge in D3 have protected them. But not this time, the sky over Delhi is thick wiht pollution, D3 levels will have sunk again. But with  luck the poor will still have effective antibodies, 'cause they will be bottom of the peck order for oxygen and vaccines.

It is natural experiments like this that will -eventually- bring epidemiologists towards including the importance of D3 in their deliberations.

Peter