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Do you have children/grandchildren who have not yet been vaccinated, and who you worry about?     My son was in that group, until a week ago, when he was included in the UK vaccination programme as it extended to 42 year olds.

There is another way for younger adults than waiting - volunteering for a new vaccine trial.    The French firm Valneva have another vaccine on the blocks, ready for a Phase 3 trial and are looking for volunteers, who will get either that or the OAZ one.  

See: https://www.ukcovid19study.com/

John

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On 5/6/2021 at 12:21 PM, john.r.davies said:

Do you have children/grandchildren who have not yet been vaccinated, and who you worry about?     My son was in that group, until a week ago, when he was included in the UK vaccination programme as it extended to 42 year olds.

There is another way for younger adults than waiting - volunteering for a new vaccine trial.    The French firm Valneva have another vaccine on the blocks, ready for a Phase 3 trial and are looking for volunteers, who will get either that or the OAZ one.  

See: https://www.ukcovid19study.com/

John

More on the Valneva vaccine: https://theconversation.com/whats-the-valneva-covid-19-vaccine-the-french-shot-thats-supposed-to-be-variant-proof-160345

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Best make hay while the sun shines. My latest concern:

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1203/rapid-responses

( the linked article URL has to be copied and pasted, its the AACE journal at fault)

Peter

 

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Peter, 
Covid variants.

Is it known where the virus mutates into new variants?

I thought of UV light damage whilst airborne or faulty replication by human cells or is there a different mechanism at work?

Alan
 

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3 hours ago, barkerwilliams said:

Peter, 
Covid variants.

Is it known where the virus mutates into new variants?

I thought of UV light damage whilst airborne or faulty replication by human cells or is there a different mechanism at work?

Alan
 

Alan,  Spontaneous mutations during replication are important but a few-fold less frequent than flu viruses. IIRC seven spike mutations were found in one patient who had been treated with immune serum and that variant was more infectious. Still a lot of uncertainty about new varianmts but stepping back from the details, we would  expect the virus to evolve new ways around both vax and anitbodies from earlier  infections. And the more people infected the sooner those "escape variants " will appear. India is suspected of having a new variant that has displaced Kent but thier genomic sequencing is chaotic, a tiny fraction of UKs and unreliable too. To me, thats the big problem we dont know what variants are evolving around the world  or if thet defeat our present  vax. Retweaking vax needs several  months and then a repeat mass-vax programme. Retweaking would have to embrace several ( as yet unknown) variants whereas our present vax was directed at the  "wild type" virus which had few varieties of spike protein. France is working on an inactivated whole-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine where induced antibodies attack all virus proteins not just the spike. But to me that raises the risk of side-effects.

In short I am pessimistic that re-vaccination can outpace the virus, and expect the pandemic to persist several years. Unless we are lucky, or attitudes to D3 change. but ther is no sign of that whatsoever.

Peter

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The appearance of variants is just evolution in action, and as usual , evolution selects the "fittest".    What is "fit" can be many things.

It occurs just as it does on other organisms, during the replication of DNA, when errors occur rarely over many generations, so that evolution is normally slow.   But viral generations are a factor of the infection rate, so that the more humans get it the more variants will occur.

That's why "no one is safe until we are all safe"!  IMHO, we can expect annual Covid vaccinations, just like flu already.

Edited by john.r.davies
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40 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

The appearance of variants is just evolution in action, and as usual , evolution selects the "fittest".    What is "fit" can be many things.

It occurs just as it does on other organisms, during the replication of DNA, when errors occur rarely over many generations, so that evolution is normally slow.   But viral generations are a factor of the infection rate, so that the more humans get it the more variants will occur.

That's why "no one is safe until we are all safe"!  IMHO, we can expect annual Covid vaccinations, just like flu already.

I agree John, one virus amplfies itself ca 10,000 fold wehn it infects a cell; lots of potential mis-reading. Unlike flu that must have almost exhausted its repertoire of novel varinta coronavirus has only just started its evolution. so we might well face several new variants at once. One discovered by random mutaution and expression in yeast showed a 60fold tighter binding to ACE--2 receptor than the original SARS=COV-2. If that evolves in the wild.......................I really dont like to think.

Peter

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Have just sent this to elderly family and friends. Take it or leave it !  Peter

 

https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-covid-vaccines-more-effective-give-people-vitamin-and-mineral-supplements-154974

I take a Centrum Silver multivit with minerals daily, but it does not have Se

So I take 50 mcg selenium as Sodium selenite once per week.

D3 is by far the most important but the Centrum pill only has 1000 IU. For optimum fucntion we need 4000-6000IU pd

Recnt review by Holick, the grandee of D3 clinical and lab research
 

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/7/2097


Selenium is needed to ensure function of an enzyme that utilises Glutathione (GSH) GSH is made from glycine in our diet but elderly may not get enough.
 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ctm2.372


I take six 1 g glycine capsules daily ( between meals, 2 at a time) Normal diet has 2g glycine. I dont take the NAC as a normal diet has 6g cysteine.

As new variants evolve the vaccine will lose efficacy, so belt and braces seems to me to make sense

Peter
 

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One for the D3 for C-19 enthusiast ( I might be talking to myself but never mind). This paper shows cathelicidin ( aka LL37) binds to the virus spike protein in its  receptor biinding domain. It also binds to the ACE2 receptors on the cell surface.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8056948/

We have to wait to the tail end of the Discussion to find mention of D3.  Looks to me that a  referee required that adding in.

So, another peice of basic research giving hope that vaccines are not the sole player in our  defences.

Peter

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Nearly 40 per cent of recently registered Covid deaths in England and Wales were people who died primarily from another condition, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

Out of 107 Covid deaths registered in the week ending May 21, just 66 had the virus recorded as the underlying cause of death – 61.7 per cent. 

For the rest of the cases, although coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate it was not a major cause.

It is the lowest number of deaths with Covid as the underlying cause since the week ending March 13 2020 – the first week that deaths involving Covid were registered in England and Wales, when just five registrations were listed.

The ONS continues to include those who did not primarily die of Covid in its official statistics, even though the World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued guidance warning they should not be classified as Covid deaths in official figures.

The data lends support to claims that although cases have been rising in Britain in recent weeks, due largely to the Indian variant, that is not so far translating into a significant increase in deaths.

On Tuesday, the Government announced the first day without any Covid deaths since before the first lockdown in March last year.

Indian variant hotspots such as Bolton, North Tyneside, Rossendale, Hyndburn and Bedford are showing declines in cases or hospital admissions, while increases in Blackburn appear to be slowing.

Sir John Bell, a leading member of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team, urged the Government to stick to the unlocking roadmap and ensure that we "move on" rather than delay reopening due to new variants. 

The weekly ONS data show that Covid is now mentioned in only around one in 90 death registrations in England and Wales – the equivalent of just 1.1 per cent of all deaths registered in the week.

...Which is very positive but hidden amongst the above information is this paragraph...

The ONS continues to include those who did not primarily die of Covid in its official statistics, even though the World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued guidance warning they should not be classified as Covid deaths in official figures.

I thought we had resolved this "double counting" nearly 12 months ago ? when we realised that EVERYBODY with Covid was being counted as having died from it...even if they were on holiday and drowned !

The fact we cannot trust the ONS is not a surprise, as an organisation it is poorly lead and often presents data in a curious fashion. If the recent nearly 40% of deaths being miscounted has been in place since early 2020, our death total from actual Covid could be many thousand deaths different from that published.  

Mick Richards

 

Edited by Motorsport Mickey
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34 minutes ago, barkerwilliams said:

Tks Alan, really fascinating. The UVB>endorphin story makes sense evolutionarily, by giving us an "appetite" for sunshine. Peter

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This from Canada, dirty tricks to target scientists and physicians who speak out about Emergency Use Authorisation , D3 ( of course) and ivermectin. Governments and medical institutions threaten careers of those who raise quesitons;

https://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/covid-19-canada-responds/episodes/66396178/#

Peter

 

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Interesting article today, about how AstraZeneca's extraordinary, altruistic way of marketing their Covid vaccine, to offer it at cost price to the world, was undermined by petty nitpicking from American and European drug regulators, and by abusive Russian and Chinese campaigns on social media.

For instance, it quotes Sir John Bell, Regius Prof of Medicine at Oxford, on the European response, "throughout Europe we had lots of these little so-called expert committees saying: ‘Oh God, you can’t use it in the over-50s, oh God, you can’t use it in the under-50s. You can’t use it at all. Well, maybe you could use it if you’re upside down, drinking a milkshake'"   while an eminent Russian, Kirill Dimetriev who heads the Russina Direct Development Fund that financed the Sputnik-V vaccine, called AZ "the monkey vaccine".

See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/26/the-oxford-vaccine-the-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-world-saving-jab

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext?

letter warning of risks to young people of relaxing pandemic rules on July 19

The Beeb mentioned it this morning, now seems to have been buried.

Peter

 

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The letter ignores important ethical points, consent and the benefit to the child.

A child cannot give consent.  A decison on treatment must be taken for them.     In taking that decision by  a parent, an appointed substitute or a government, the paramount importance must be the benefit/risk balance to the child.      Benefits to others, or the community are secondary, and may not be included.   

 A group based on Great Ormond Street Hospital has just submitted a paper to the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation on the effect on children of Covid in the first year.  Of children up to 17 years old, 5830 were admitted to hospital, 241 (4%) needed ICU and 25 (0.4%) died.     That is from 14 million children under 18 in the UK, whose risk of death was 0.02%.   

This must be contrasted with, in 2020, 70,000 deaths in adults who had Covid on the death certificate, from a population of 53 million.  That is a death risk of 13%, overall, and that risk was much greater for older people for whom the risk/benefit ratio clearly favours vaccination.      The Gov decided that as younger people had a lower death risk, those under 40 years should not receive the AZ vaccine, because of the risk with that of a rare blood clotting syndrome, which has occurred after 0.0025% of AZ doses.    This sets a precedent for such risk/benefit analysis, albeit modified by alternative vaccines.

Thus, the arguement that all children should be vaccinated is flawed.   The risk of Covid to the child is tiny, so the benefit of vaccination is also tiny.  However, just as in adults, those with other conditions will have a greater risk from Covid, so children with diabetes, asthma and cardiovascular disease should be vaccinated.      Children from 'ethnic communities' were also more at risk, and vaccinating them as well must be considered.

I can't estimate how many such children there are.     But even if a quarter did need vaccination, this would mean that the UK would not need 21 million doses of vaccine.   This leads to another argument, which contradicts my first, but only if the first is not allowed.    "None of us are safe, until we are all safe" said  UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and he is so right, as shown by the appearance of Covid mutations, variants.   In the UK, 80% of adults have had at least one vaccine dose, 60% two doses.  Soon, it will approach 90%.   In the World, less than 25% have had one dose, a very long way from us being "all safe"!     Twenty million doses would only be a small step towards a fully vaccinated world, but a real one, and one that reflects the real needs of the world.

JOhn

   

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The letter also expects the July19 th relaxation, to quote https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1751

"" The letter said that, with only half of the UK population fully vaccinated and infections still growing exponentially, it “will likely continue until millions more are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands with long term illness and disability.” Unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children, young people, and people in deprived communities, it said. ""

100,000s with Long Covid does not look wise, to me.

And millions more infections is millions more opportunities for new variants to evolve, with the risk that the vaccines become less effective.

Peter

 

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  • 4 months later...

The D3 for C-19 story has not gone away despite my radio silence. However a recent Nature paper shows convincingly how a synthetic, activated form of  D3 works on immune cells to reduce the pro-inflammatory cytokines that induce the often lethal cytokine storm that destroys lung tissues. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01080-3#Sec9 

- the details dont matter, its  terribly complicated, but it is good to know in-depth research is going on.

Another paper reviews D3 immune actions, the final section briefly covers C-19: https://asbmr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/jbm4.10405

Lots of research on D3 is underway globally. Eventually D3 will come good for  C-19 and a host of other diseases. I just sent off a blood-test to City Assays and have been told a 10day waiting list. Maybe D3 is proving popular.

Peter

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