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Peter Cobbold

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Peter Cobbold last won the day on July 4

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    North Wales
  • Cars Owned:
    Wade-blown TR6
    Supercharging.
    TR7 fhc - not blown, yet....
    Science. Microscopy
    Creative conservation
    Birding, Iceland, UFO science.

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  1. For brambles I use a pole hedgecutter. The strimmer wont touch 1/2 diameter stems. However I like dense bramble patches, the hedge sparrows nest in them, and the brown butterflies (meadow. ringlet and gatekeeper) rely upon the flowers for nectar. The petrol hedgecutter is better balanced than the battery version, but a b888er to start. Peter
  2. Another afternoon's work published: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2618/rr Peter
  3. John, I do not see a circuit once the battery has had its connection to the body (earth) disconnected. So it is as safe as a switch on the live side. Without a circuit through the battery no current can flow. Perhaps RobH will adjudicate ? Peter
  4. A switch in the earthy is as safe as switching the live. Once the battery earth terminal is no longer connected to the body you can touch anything 'live' to earth and nowt will happen. When disconnecting the battery terminals with a spanner you always do the earthy first. Work on the live first and the spanner may short several hundred of amps to anything earthed- body, battery clamp, cable whatever. Neil is right: for racers, live terminal switched, earth lead wrapped in yellow tape. Peter
  5. Never switch the engine off with the switch, it will blow the alternator diodes.
  6. The mantra the bigger the better is part of RCT dogma, as we see here: source; https://theconversation.com/vitamin-d-a-pseudo-vitamin-for-a-pseudo-disease-101907#comment_1827078 (he was demolished by a USA clinicians David B Karpf comments ) The fundamental problem with RCTs for D3 is they almost always use a single dose deemed safe by regulatory bodies with no dose-ranging and no reference to D3 physiology. Result: not enough D3 given > "no effect" > D3 not important. But abundant animal/cell/molec studies show D3 is intimately involved. The schism gets bigger by the month. There are now 400+ hiits on Goggle Scholar for: "COVID + 25(OH)D3 " this year. There is a new approach that combine causal reasoning with mathematically correct decision making, of whcih this is a relevant example: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965v3 That approach is much closer to how we understand the world. And it will allow data from animal/cell/molec/gene studies to be mathematically merged with exptl interventions on humans. When that is applied to D3 there will be a ginormous , cheap and safe boost to our health, and a corresponding lightening of load on NHS. At present an enormous body of D3 scince is being wasted on the supposed Gold Standard of RCTs. For D3, and our future health, that must change. I do approve of RCTs for drugs, I dont trust any pharma big or small. Peter
  7. Pete, Or the certainty parents cant go back to work if schools dont open. I'm not convinced that interrupted education is that serious when all are in the same boat. The effect of losing a parent or grandparent suddenly could be more damaging. Peter
  8. And if the live rounds were duds..................."there is no evidence " shooting people works. 100 is waaaay too small a number, NICE dont get out of bed for less than 10,000 or thereabouts. Peter
  9. Wales is not opening schools either. Many families are close knit and the risk of an infected but symptomless sprog returning from school to infect granny at home appears to be overlooked in England. For once Wales seems to be getting it right, although the impact upon the hospitality and ents businesses looks dire. The choice between health or wealth is not difficult at an individual level, but "my wealth vs your health" is a new conundrum for our politicians. Stay safe Peter Peter
  10. After 12000 page views there can only be a few TRers still on board this thread. This article is for you, especailly if nervous about over-doing the dose. The pdf is very readable. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202005.0265/v1 The first author has taken 60,000 IU pd for six years. In the context of COVID we see here that the virus-'killing' cathelicidn is secreted excatly where it is needed to intercept the first virus particles we breathe in or swallow: Peter
  11. Haven't listened to the wireless for many years, requires too much attention and too slow. Far prefer to read than listen, or watch come to that. Am I alone in that ? Peter
  12. Waldi, Not in Wales. Only outdoor attractions are allowed to open here.It is tough on the ale-house landlords and cafe owners but a big help to those putting their lives at risk in hospitals treating those who think a drink in the pub is worth risking a trip to the ICU, possible one-way. Peter
  13. I'm expecting the orange POTUS to beat the UK offer. For the wrong reasons as ever, but as a way of weakening Beijing.
  14. Iain, The rickets dose was approved by RCTs and then that dose applied to RCTs for other diseases, whereas a science-based approach would use a range of doses. But that then reduces the numbers at each dose, impairing the stats. If cash was not limitng - there are no profits in D3 - big RCTs with a range of doses i/c physiological would come up with outcomes that meet NICE RCT criteria. Only rickets and colon cancer have passed. For COVID and future pandemics the RCT approach is far too slow. Martineau's RCT is to run for 5 years. If there are too few in his sample with physiological 25(OH)D3 it will be another failure. Safety with D3 is well established. Physiological production from sun is 10 to 20 thousand IU daily. Yet RCTs are typically only 400 to 800- because the prior rickets RCT defined that as safe. NICE COVID advice likewise is based upon rickets: dangerous to health, not neutral. D3 works life-long and has a preventive, defensive role, not so much a therapeutic role. D3 deficincy is implicated in PD and demnetias, that develop over many years. RCTs lasting a decade or two would be hugely expensive not to mention slow to give benefit. Observational studies on existing . long-term, high-D3 cohorts vs D3-deficnt cohorts are needed, but under-resourced. Such is the overwhelming influence of NICE I do not expect UK to be in the lead in using D3 supplements to address COVID. It will be another nation that follows the science and acts. D3 is certainly getting a lot of attention by scientists and a smart CSO/CMO somewhere will get poltical support to dose their nation. I calculate that around 3000IU pd pp will cost UK £30M per month retail. Peanuts. But NICE says NO, so it wont happen here. And no-one referees NICE edicts: the oracle speaks and the entire medical profession obeys - bar a very few who speak out. Sad, and deadly. Peter
  15. John, The entire basis of science is based upon observation, measurement, hyopthesis,deduction and causal inference.It is how we all understand the world. For some peculiar reason medicine has ditched all-embracing causal inference and put all its belief in RCTs. That may be the only way to be sure a drug is "safe" but to apply RCTs to a hormone is dangerous. The so called Gold Standard is advising levels of hormone that are around one fifth of physiological, and that hormone promotes several hundred genes, In the context of COVID the genes turned on ny the hormone in peripheral blood monocytes and macrophages ( immune cells) have been discovered: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/4/1140 Such knowledge along with many thousands of other papers on D3 are utterly ignored by NICE D3 panel....utterly. There were no RCTs for tobacco and the inability of medics to take up causal inference - as any true scientist would- allowed the risks of smoking to health to be obfuscated by tobacco companies for decades. The same is heppening now with COVID, the profession has been blinded by its ignornace of the scientific method. Blinded by a dependence and misplaced trust on RCTs. For drugs there is no alternative to RCTs as data is guarded by pharmas with commercial imperatives and they cannot be trusted. But to loose sight of causal inference and apply RCTs to a hormone where there are tens of thousnads of refereed papers is INSANE. This paper uses causal inference to establish the role of D3 in COVID. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965v3 reading the appendices first. The vast majority of RCTs for D3 , in a long list of diseases (hypertension, T2DM, a range of cancers...) have been rejected by NICE on grounds of insufficient numbers. And most failed to show beefit because the D3 dose was far too low, well below physiological, and decided by a panel using doses effective against rickets, ( 25 nmol/L vs physiological 100 -125 nmol/L) But there is light on the horizon. COVID and D3 deficiency are both global so in the fullness of time ( after hunderds of thousnad have died) the link between low D3 and severity of COVID will be unmistakable and irrefutable. The prospects then for improving the nation's health will be enormous, vastly greater than any drugs can provide. Check out the diseases on vitamindwiki. The science is there, it is the NICE D3 panel and the blind acceptance of its un-refereed edicts by the medical profession that is blocking the way to a longer-lived, healthier and happier nation. Peter
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