Jump to content
Fireman049

CORONAVIRUS

Recommended Posts

I notice that my warning that the CORONAVIRUS had spread into north Wales has magically disappeared ~ Do we not count for anything??

Tom. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Fireman049 said:

I notice that my warning that the CORONAVIRUS had spread into north Wales has magically disappeared ~ Do we not count for anything??

Tom. 

You have a similar post in TR Motorsport Tom. Is this the one?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Fireman049 said:

I notice that my warning that the CORONAVIRUS had spread into north Wales has magically disappeared ~ Do we not count for anything??

Tom. 

As Kevin says, your post exists in the Cv-19 thread in the TR Motorsport section..... no conspiracy that I can see

 

 

8D65B03B-8728-400B-9A49-E5D9E53DE0BB.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tom,  It's at YGC, Maelor and Ruthin. It has been spreading before any symptoms appear. Roughly 5days of huge virus shedding ( compared with SARs-1, 1000-fold more) before a fever appears. So "containment" has failed. Time to pull up the drawbridge. More detail on Sideways. Peter  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Peter ~

I'm afraid that this incompetent Government have lost the plot. America have drawn up their drawbridges whilst our politicians are drinking tea and thinking about it!!

I could tell you a thing or two about the 'Home Office' and their inefficiency where the British fire services are concerned.

Tom. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought that the briefing following the most recent COBRA meeting was excellent, particularly the logical, fact based assessment given by the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer. Really clear message, good solid logic why we should not blindly follow the emotion based decisions of other countries. It is worth watching all of it, rather than the snippets chosen by the news services.

Mick

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Tom,

do not be too hard on the people trying to sort this out.  This is an unknown situation.

The news etc are talking about symptoms but the virus is contagious long before the symptoms show.

Stay indoors as best as you can. Wash your hands and don;t stick anything in your mouth (not before licking it clean)

The logic of Boris and co is to drag this early phase out so that the NHS is not over run.

The logic really is good.

 

Roger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Posted 23 minutes ago

Quote

 

 

Posted 23 minutes ago

I thought that the briefing following the most recent COBRA meeting was excellent, particularly the logical, fact based assessment given by the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer. Really clear message, good solid logic why we should not blindly follow the emotion based decisions of other countries. It is worth watching all of it, rather than the snippets chosen by the news services.

 

Mick, this is where Boris got it all from....... Timeless!!!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, RogerH said:

Hi Tom,

do not be too hard on the people trying to sort this out.  This is an unknown situation.

The news etc are talking about symptoms but the virus is contagious long before the symptoms show.

Stay indoors as best as you can. Wash your hands and don;t stick anything in your mouth (not before licking it clean)

The logic of Boris and co is to drag this early phase out so that the NHS is not over run.

The logic really is good.

 

Roger

Non-symptomatic transmission. That's where COBRA;'s plan, despite the logic, might come apart ( or has already). The CMO and CSO were not to know this until the past 3 or4 days, Until then telling people with any fluey symptoms to self isolate was a barrier to the virus spreading. But now German and Texas research shows symptomless transmissionm and huge amount of virus shedding, 1000 x SAR-1, before any fever. So the virus could be being released by anyone, even thos who seem healthy. Children dont seem to suffer but that does not mean thay are infection-free. Granny should keep her distance. How much difference to Boris; plan non-symptomatic transmission will make will we hope keep his teams very busy indeed. Peter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the BMJ: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/12/matt-morgan-a-letter-from-icu/?fbclid=IwAR3muC2lg9qRNc3K5Yb34UuRTHH5Zk1LZ_9r2kNsqawg-_f3wTMLEpAXekw

Matt Morgan: A letter from ICU    March 12, 2020

To those who are elderly, frail, vulnerable, or with serious underlying health conditions,

We have not forgotten about you. 

It must be so hard listening to endless news reports that end with “don’t worry, this illness mainly affects the elderly, frail, vulnerable, or those with serious underlying health conditions.” What if that is you?

Our passion as an intensive care community is fixing problems that can be fixed. Yet we often meet patients like you who have problems that cannot simply be fixed. As this virus continues to impact on the world, we will meet many more of you. Although we have fancy machines, powerful drugs, and talented staff, none of these things cure every disease. All they do is give us time – time to work out what is wrong, time to hopefully treat it, and time for people to get better. But sometimes we already know what is wrong, we already know that there is no effective treatment. And so sometimes the machines offer little, intensive care offers no fix. But hope is not lost. We have not forgotten about you. 

As difficult as this is, we will be honest. We will continue to use all of the treatments that may work and may get you back to being you again. We will use oxygen, fluid into your veins, antibiotics, all of the things that may work. But we won’t use the things that won’t work. We won’t use machines that can cause harm. We won’t press on your chest should your heart stop beating. Because these things won’t work. They won’t get you back to being you. 

And If these things are still not enough, we will sit with you and with your family. We will be honest, we will hold your hand, we will be there. We will change our focus from cure but most importantly we will continue to care. We have not forgotten about you. 

Signed,

The Intensive Care Unit

Matt Morgan, honorary senior research fellow at Cardiff University, consultant in intensive care medicine, research and development lead in critical care at University Hospital of Wales, and an editor of BMJ OnExamination. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Non-symptomatic transmission. That's where COBRA;'s plan, despite the logic, might come apart ( or has already). The CMO and CSO were not to know this until the past 3 or4 days, Until then telling people with any fluey symptoms to self isolate was a barrier to the virus spreading. But now German and Texas research shows symptomless transmissionm and huge amount of virus shedding, 1000 x SAR-1, before any fever. So the virus could be being released by anyone, even thos who seem healthy. Children dont seem to suffer but that does not mean thay are infection-free. Granny should keep her distance. How much difference to Boris; plan non-symptomatic transmission will make will we hope keep his teams very busy indeed. Peter

Peter this is all very interesting, but what would be the outcome of a total shut down?

Massive economic distress?

No herd immunity and the potential for a much more severe and later out break towards year end, where  a very high percentage of the population would still be a risk on top of the normal seasonal stress the NHS struggles with?

It easy for us to criticise, much harder to come up with a workable strategy to protect the bulk of the population and the economy, as much as is practical

Perhaps there is some logic in the phased actions, to ensure the population does not go into a frenzy of irrational stock piling, creating unnecessary strain on our infrastructure, whilst ensuring that we all get the message.? ( subject to our media not being complete @#£” s which they appear very adept at being.)

Iain

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for posting John........I’m in awe of our NHS folks, they are overworked at best of times and are now putting an incredible shift in... Dr Matt Morgan embodies all that is so very special overall across the NHS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, iain said:

Peter this is all very interesting, but what would be the outcome of a total shut down?

Massive economic distress?

No herd immunity and the potential for a much more severe and later out break towards year end, where  a very high percentage of the population would still be a risk on top of the normal seasonal stress the NHS struggles with?

It easy for us to criticise, much harder to come up with a workable strategy to protect the bulk of the population and the economy, as much as is practical

Perhaps there is some logic in the phased actions, to ensure the population does not go into a frenzy of irrational stock piling, creating unnecessary strain on our infrastructure, whilst ensuring that we all get the message.? ( subject to our media not being complete @#£” s which they appear very adept at being.)

Iain

 

Iain.

If I  were Boris ( perish the thought):  Isolate evryone over say 65, the most at risk of death and who would block ICUs in the process. Isolate all of any age with seriously impaired health.

Let the rest, young healthy go about business as usual, and be infected, its most;y mild for them. While using the ICU capacity of NHS for those who are badly infected. They will provide herd immunity.

It will take until autumn, and by then there miight be a new vaccine or drug.

Pete

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But Peter, this virus is going to become endemic, just like the other corona viruses that plague us, the common cold.    YOu could put everyone over 65 in their own luxury bunker, and keep them from getting it, but they wll have to come out one day, unless they - we! - die of something else.    UThere may be a vaccine by then, but a vaccine against those other coronas is signally absent!

I'm dropping a letter into the letter boxes of my immediate neighbours tomorrow.    Just enclosing my phone numbers and email adddress, and volunteering my assistance if required, for shopping or whatever, in exchange for theirs.  We're going to have to pull together on this.  And I've registered with Sainsbury's online. so I can get my shopping without  a visit to the supermarket, if that need arises.

My sister tells me that in Germany, this supermarker delivery system doesn't exist!    A friend's mother is already ill, not Covid-19,, so they have delivered a load of non-perishables to her garage, where they will be undisturbed for a week, which is supposed to exceed the survival of the virus on surfaces, when Granny can take them in and use them.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back in the 1950s, when I was born, parents put all the kids together when one had mumps, measles, whooping cough, etc. It wasn't called "herd immunity" back then. I think it was called common sense. The strategy was to get it over with and build up the immunity. This appears to be what the UK government are doing. It is a valid strategy and yes people will die. But they would anyway.

I also remember, back in the day, that you didn't panic buy toilet paper. Mainly because the IZAL stuff was bloody horrible. Most people saw it as a bonus when it ran out.

"We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give. Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

France has just closed down all shops except foot and chemists, all bars, restaurants,night clubs etc. this after announcing on Thursday the closure of all schools, colleges and universities! Thank god for Netflix cause there will be not a lot else to do for a few weeks :( 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Iain.

If I  were Boris ( perish the thought):  Isolate evryone over say 65, the most at risk of death and who would block ICUs in the process. Isolate all of any age with seriously impaired health.

Let the rest, young healthy go about business as usual, and be infected, its most;y mild for them. While using the ICU capacity of NHS for those who are badly infected. They will provide herd immunity.

It will take until autumn, and by then there miight be a new vaccine or drug.

Pete

 

I understand your thinking,but when you release the vulnerable population which is a large cohort, they unfortunately will still be defenceless, this just moves the problem further down the line. A vaccine to a RNA virus in a matter of months is ambitious to put it mildly a year or more is more likely.

Some very difficult decisions are being made to protect as many as possible. It’s very uncomfortable for all, especially those on the front line.

Iain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, iain said:

I understand your thinking,but when you release the vulnerable population which is a large cohort, they unfortunately will still be defenceless, this just moves the problem further down the line. A vaccine to a RNA virus in a matter of months is ambitious to put it mildly a year or more is more likely.

Some very difficult decisions are being made to protect as many as possible. It’s very uncomfortable for all, especially those on the front line.

Iain

The elderly will be released when herd immunity has diluted the virus and icu s are freed up again to help them survive. Peter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 200 signatories letter:  http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf

if they are right, and 200 academics agreeing is rather spectacular, Italy here we come.

Peter

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting......very few are clinicians, few are epidemiologist but they could be right based on their modelling data and I really shouldn’t contend with my Alumni. 
Certainly the rate of growth of cases is very similar. But back to your original contention,

16 % of the UK population are over 65 add to that those of lower age with diabetes, heart disease and others with suppressed immune response, we must be close to 25 % of the population.........

We have just lost our UK measles free status due to dropping below the 95% immunisation target ( currently 86% https://www.newscientist.com/article/2213764-the-uk-has-lost-its-world-health-organization-measles-free-status/)..........so even if you isolate 25% of the vulnerable population, the 75%  herd immunity will not be sufficient to protect the 25%. 

Perhaps it is time to tighten the restrictions on movement.........but I think that has always been in the phased plan.

Iain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Restriction on movement primarily slows the speed of the virus. The positive being that it relieves pressure on the health services by flattening the peak. It also moves many countries into the warmer summer months. Which is good be because warm, humid weather is thought to make it harder for respiratory droplets to spread viruses.

The problem is that when the period of mass isolation comes to an end the vulnerable are still vulnerable. So the isolation plan only works if it is followed by a mass vaccination programme.

China is gradually freeing up the movement of its citizens, but is now importing Coronavirus. Today many new cases in China are coming from visitors to the country. To fix this problem the whole world would need to be in lockdown. That would be fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have today decided to not impose myself in our local group meeting at the pub. Both my wife and I are very well but anyone could be in the pre-symptoms phase.

I recognise that a number of the attendees are in various vulnerable groups. And an enclosed pub room environment with food and drink for a couple of hours may be just too attractive to Coronavirus sharing.

in my previous profession EHO, we are familiar with virus and pathogen transmission.

we as a family also have ill and elderly to keep an eye on. 
 

I just hope fellow members do not take umbrage, it’s nothing personal.
 

I'm happy to visit open air activities     And look after personal hygiene so I hope my sprints can continue but I’m not convinced MSUK will support events as things move forward. 
 

stay safe everyone. 

the forum will come into its own as an ideal route for sharing TR fun and frolics during this period of isolation. 
so encourage others to join up. 

I will be using the TR for fresh air fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

The elderly will be released when herd immunity has diluted the virus and icu s are freed up again to help them survive. Peter

Quis custodiet?     All healthcare workers who are still helathy will be caring for theyoung sick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Please familiarise yourself with our Terms and Conditions. By using this site, you agree to the following: Terms of Use.