Peter Cobbold Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ian, an hour ago I told John, it remains the same: 100 to 150 nmol/L Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) ooops!!! Edited January 25, 2021 by RogerH Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 New Scientist reports that in Brazil, hospitals in the Manaus region on the Amazon are "collapsing" with no beds, oxygen supplies exhausted, and the public queueing to buy cylinders from commercial suppliers. Manaus is the poorest region of Brazil with poverty, poor housing and few clean water supplies, and in the first wave of Covid, 76% of inhabitants were thought to have caught the virus, leading to government thinking that "herd immunity" had been acheived. The second wave has blown that theory apart. See: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2265696-covid-19-outbreak-in-manaus-suggests-herd-immunity-may-not-be-possible/ John PS Manaus region straddles the Equator. It must get as much sunshine as any non-desert area on Earth. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, john.r.davies said: John PS Manaus region straddles the Equator. It must get as much sunshine as any non-desert area on Earth. But John, you know full well that the locals in sunny places stay out of the sun. They stay covered up and indoors until the evening (in many places) I can imagine that if they had their blood tested for Vit D it would be low - as shown in SE Asia in the first outbreak last March. Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 But also Brazilians. This is Ponta Negra beach on the Amazon shore at Manaus. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SuzanneH Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, john.r.davies said: But also Brazilians. This is Ponta Negra beach on the Amazon shore at Manaus. John Just how long is that beach and why are all those people crowded into one small area of said beach. One is holding up a banner/ notice as if he is protesting about something, probably why there is a photographer there and why they are all crowded together. Don’t try pulling the wool over our eyes as it doesn’t work, ignorant we are not! Edited January 26, 2021 by SuzanneH Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, john.r.davies said: But also Brazilians. This is Ponta Negra beach on the Amazon shore at Manaus. Hi John, you still haven't got it. Are the folk in your beach picture really the very poor that potentially catch the virus. I think not. They are probably tourists or the rich of Manaus. A silly picture trying to be clever will not prove anything - they need their blood testing. Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lebro Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like a "where's Larry" picture to be. (Havn't found him yet) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 This makes an interesting read for the scientifically orientated. Demonstrating an inverse correlation between serum VitD 3 and its active metabolites with circannual variation in levels in a large UK Study. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-43462-6 Iain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 26, 2021 Report Share Posted January 26, 2021 Manaus is at 3degrees South. Viet Nam is between 10 and 20 degrees North., Both well within the zone where sunlight is plentiful. Viet Nam, as a whole, 5 has had 1500 deaths from Covid. Yes, one thousand, five hundred. Do the Viet Namese go out in it but the Manauans don't? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, john.r.davies said: Manaus is at 3degrees South. Viet Nam is between 10 and 20 degrees North., Both well within the zone where sunlight is plentiful. Viet Nam, as a whole, 5 has had 1500 deaths from Covid. Yes, one thousand, five hundred. Do the Viet Namese go out in it but the Manauans don't? It is quite possible, behaviuor and clothing habits influence incidental D3 production. Arab states are a prime example, especailly for women. Without 25(OH)D measurements we cannot judge D3 status on latitude alone. Manaus is very wet, implying cloud cover, and maybe Vietnam has more sun. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 hours ago, iain said: This makes an interesting read for the scientifically orientated. Demonstrating an inverse correlation between serum VitD 3 and its active metabolites with circannual variation in levels in a large UK Study. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-43462-6 Iain This is the classical bone-directed hormonal action of D3. The data indicate 24-hydroxylation is maximal at serum 25(OH)D above ca 25-50 nmol/L This is accepted widely as being adequate for bone health. The autocrine actions of D3, in whcih 1,25(OH)D functions within most cells is not embraced by this study. Seasonality of serum 25(OH)D is well known in northern latitudes, and may be deleteriosu to health. In most cells the 24-hydroxylase is induced by 1,25(OH)D cytoplasmic level, which itself follows serum 25(OH)D rapidly. When 25(OH)D falls at winter onset 1,25 produciton slows accordingy. But the 24-hydroxylase remains active. Result: an undershoot of 1,25 that is faster than the fall in seryum 25(OH)D. This process may contribute to the surge in C-19 in early winter. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said: It is quite possible, behaviuor and clothing habits influence incidental D3 production. Arab states are a prime example, especailly for women. Without 25(OH)D measurements we cannot judge D3 status on latitude alone. Manaus is very wet, implying cloud cover, and maybe Vietnam has more sun. There is no excuse for discounting an objection to your argument, Peter, by merely producing a personal observation. There is plenty of online evidence, in particular of local sunshine levels, Viz: In Viet Nam, annual hours of sunshine vary from 1200 to 2600 across a range of locations: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1089265/vietnam-annual-sunshine-duration-in-by-city/ This is a histogram of the totals, and I can't find one like that for Manaus, only (!) a month by month graph: https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshine,Manaus,Brazil But that allows the annual total to be calculated, which comes 1760. So, as I said above, annual sunshine in Manaus and Viet Nam are very similar, yet in Amazonia, 75% of the inhabitants acquired Covid in the first wave and its health service is now collapsing (New Scientist's word, not mine) in the second wave, yet in Viet Nam the impact has been dramatically less.. Even more dramatic than I previously stated - My disbelieving brain translated what is in fact 1500 CASES into deaths from Covid. There have been 35 - THIRTY FIVE - deaths from Covid in Viet Nam. What special pleading for VitD will you employ against that extraordinary fact? JOhn Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Schnippel Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hi there, I think you shouldn't just refer to the hours of sunshine. As soon as there is only a thin layer of haze in front of the sun, the UVB radiation drops drastically towards zero. Unfortunately, this layer of haze is too often formed by air pollution. We know the problem from industrial cities. Ralf Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) Schippel, Again unfounded opinion is used to discount arguments against the prejudice in favour of VitD! This is the WHO map of world air pollution: There are two sites, in north and south Viet Nam, where there is severe air pollution, but in Brazil just one, nothing like so severe and not in Amazonia. So the people of Manaus have the benefit of as much sunshine as the Vietnamese, but without any air pollution. Yet they have a Covid eopidemic many orders of magnitude worse than the Far Eastern country. As to UVB levels in those countries, today, in Ho Chi Minh City in South Viet Nam (a pollution hotspot), the UV Index today is 8 , predicted to be 9 by Saturday. (The UV index ranges from 1 to11, and indicates the intensity and burning risk. It never goes above 8 in the UK.) Vietnam, of course, in in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. In Manaus it is 9 all this week. See: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ which will tell you the weather anywhere in the world. Please, if you want to argue in favour of VitD, or lack of it, as a significant factor in Covid infection use facts, not opinion. John Edited January 27, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hi John, you are also using unfounded information to support your criticism of the hormone VitD3. Indeed there is sunshine in the places you mention but have the locals received a VitD benefit from it. They need to be tested to see if they have sufficient (or not) D3 to help. Clearly if they are dropping like flies (as in the UK) it may be that they do not have sufficient (as in the UK) In the first wave there were in excess of 900 deaths in SE Asia - all but one death had a significant low D3 level - but it is sunny !!!!! It is easy to be critical and spout rubbish with no facts. You are a retired doctor, open your mind and look at all the evidence, Don't just go along the NICE script. Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, john.r.davies said: There is no excuse for discounting an objection to your argument, Peter, by merely producing a personal observation. There is plenty of online evidence, in particular of local sunshine levels, Viz: In Viet Nam, annual hours of sunshine vary from 1200 to 2600 across a range of locations: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1089265/vietnam-annual-sunshine-duration-in-by-city/ This is a histogram of the totals, and I can't find one like that for Manaus, only (!) a month by month graph: https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshine,Manaus,Brazil But that allows the annual total to be calculated, which comes 1760. So, as I said above, annual sunshine in Manaus and Viet Nam are very similar, yet in Amazonia, 75% of the inhabitants acquired Covid in the first wave and its health service is now collapsing (New Scientist's word, not mine) in the second wave, yet in Viet Nam the impact has been dramatically less.. Even more dramatic than I previously stated - My disbelieving brain translated what is in fact 1500 CASES into deaths from Covid. There have been 35 - THIRTY FIVE - deaths from Covid in Viet Nam. What special pleading for VitD will you employ against that extraordinary fact? JOhn John, Behaviuors and dress codes ? And diet: VN may eat a lot of fish. Virus variants differ? Social/heallth organisation may be better in VN. If you seek to discredit D3 for C-19, go ahead. But do not exepct me to arguue the toss for every objection you raise. The perspective you take re latitude is very narrow compared with the references listed in the Open Letter. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, john.r.davies said: Schippel, Again unfounded opinion is used to discount arguments against the prejudice in favour of VitD! This is the WHO map of world air pollution: There are two sites, in north and south Viet Nam, where there is severe air pollution, but in Brazil just one, nothing like so severe and not in Amazonia. So the people of Manaus have the benefit of as much sunshine as the Vietnamese, but without any air pollution. Yet they have a Covid eopidemic many orders of magnitude worse than the Far Eastern country. As to UVB levels in those countries, today, in Ho Chi Minh City in South Viet Nam (a pollution hotspot), the UV Index today is 8 , predicted to be 9 by Saturday. (The UV index ranges from 1 to11, and indicates the intensity and burning risk. It never goes above 8 in the UK.) Vietnam, of course, in in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. In Manaus it is 9 all this week. See: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ which will tell you the weather anywhere in the world. Please, if you want to argue in favour of VitD, or lack of it, as a significant factor in Covid infection use facts, not opinion. John The art of doing science is to see all sides of an argument for and against. I take D3 for C19 because the weight of evidence is convincing, from all the angles outliined in the list in the Open Letter. As you are attmepting to swim against the tide of science,it is up to you to put your hypothesis to the test, find 25(OH)D data for VN and Manaus. It is up to you. As far as I am concerned there are so many other variables (behaviour,dress, diet, variants,soocial and health structures) that deny your stance. For me, the OL is a fair statement of the state of knowledge. I see 20-30 emails daily re D3-C19 and if anythiing pops up that convincingly disagrees with the OL i will post it. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 I found this to be a comprehensive review https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/ijms/ijms-21-06573/article_deploy/ijms-21-06573-v2.pdf Their conclusion is that more work is needed. Iain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Schnippel Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hi there maybe already known? Ralf https://www.lungenaerzte-im-netz.de/news-archiv/meldung/article/vitamin-d-versorgung-kann-sterberisiko-bei-covid-19-mitbestimmen/ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352364620300067?via%3Dihub Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, iain said: I found this to be a comprehensive review https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/ijms/ijms-21-06573/article_deploy/ijms-21-06573-v2.pdf Their conclusion is that more work is needed. Iain Yes they do need to do more work ! Most of the paper is padding: textbook stuff. It was submitted in July the knowledge base has exploded since then re D3-C19. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 Wow, nice to know that a review that might help some to understand the complexity of the arguments can be brushed aside so derisively. I am out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 27, 2021 Report Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 hours ago, iain said: Wow, nice to know that a review that might help some to understand the complexity of the arguments can be brushed aside so derisively. I am out. Iain. My reply was not intended to be a personal rebuke. I get 2 to 3 substantial papers on D3 -C19 a week that the group discusses. I was judign the paper by that criterion. The refs in the OL remain the best to date. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 A little while ago, I told of my concern that the very successful Lancaster vaccination project had been halted by lack of vaccine supplies. Later, I reported the shared concern or Civic leaders across the North of England, as "Mass vaccination centres" were opened three weeks late and the Gov wanted to trumpet their success. Now I can share this from Lancaster local government members: From Lancaster Councillors Erica Lewis, Lizzi Collinge, Ruth Colbridge and Lisa Corkerry. Dear Mr Johnson and Mr Hancock, This is an open letter from concerned residents and county councillors in Lancaster. We are writing with deep concern at reports that COVID-19 vaccine supplies will be cut by up to a third for the north west of England. In Lancashire, different public sector organisations and scores of volunteers have worked hand-in-hand to deliver the vaccine programme at scale and at pace. "It is our understanding that, so far, vaccine doses have been available to all areas nationally as they have been able to deliver them. Of course, the Government needs to ensure a fair distribution of vaccines based on population size and health. This should not mean though that areas like Lancashire, which has been so successful in scaling up vaccine delivery, should have their supply disproportionately reduced so slower areas can catch up. I had three days booked for this week, vaccinating people. That has been cut to one half day. It's easy to see why. The NHS figures for vaccinations (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/) show that up to the 21st January, while in the whole of the London Area 185,000 people had received ther first dose, in Cumbria and the North East 130,000 had been 'done'. Can't let the North get ahead, can they?! John Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Utter Borrocks. They are sharing a finite resource. I am in the extremely vulnerable and over 70 group in West London and have only just received a text to book a jab. Mind you I am genetically Lancanshire so that is probably why it is late. Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.