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Are we heading for another war ??

With Biden saying a “little incursion “ would be fine ( with a sudden  change of mind ) …..sound familiar ??

China flexing its muscles with Taiwan …

The world seems rather unsettled . Mind you I don’t ever think there’s ever been a  time when the world has not been in any sort of conflict ….but Putin seems to be pushing for a conflict .

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A rather dangerous time I agree -and one where a common front is needed against potential aggression. Unfortunately Germany is in hock to Russia because it desperately needs Russian gas, and the West collectively 'needs' Chinese manufacturing having dismantled our own, so there is no common opposition to either.  

Putin is a calculating opportunist but as yet he has got away with everything - literally including murder.  Biden appears to be weak and confused, just when a strong and confident leader is required. It does not bode well.

 I don't think an invasion of Ukraine would trigger a wider war just yet.  There would probably be a lot of howling and economic sanctions but nothing more. The problem will come when an emboldened Putin invades a NATO country - maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. A land corridor to Kaliningrad could be an obvious casus belli

 

 

 

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“The problem will come when an emboldened Putin invades a NATO country - maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia.”

Yeah, then they’ll be sorry they voted for a demented violinist or prancing toothless Russian grandmothers in the Eurovision Song Contest. It’s been so obvious for the last couple of decades as highlighted by Terry Wogan.

Mick Richards

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Perhaps Churchill, Patton and the remains of the German army in 1945 should have continued on East and we may not have had the Cold War and the resulting situation we now face. Opportunity lost? We will never know. 

The Germans the natural bulwark to Russia have following WWII never felt able to have a truly effective force and we pulled out along the Rhine more or less completely with the USA post German unification so Putin isn't in fear of war on two fronts and I'm not sure economic or a proxy war is in his or our best interest either.

Just a shame we burnt all our own North Sea gas for cheap electricity rather than long term domestic heating with a failure here and in Europe to build more nuclear capacity rather than been in hoc to Russia for gas. All in all I suspect Putin is trying to play to his domestic audience to take the ordinary Russian's mind off the fact their std of living is still relatively low due to a state controlled corrupt economy. Mind you our economy isn't looking good given the current levels of inflation! 

Let's hope they sort it by talking.

Andy 

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It could end up like East/ West Germany. There is a lot of Russian influence in the Eastern Donbas region, but as in Germany the further west you go, the more the the western influence.

In WW2 the Russians were actually members of an alliance formed in 1941 formally known as The United Nations, comprising the United States, The United Kingdom, Russia and China. The Russians helped us win WW2 and at one time overpowered around 200,000 German soldiers, which helped the allies to victory. Then they had common objectives to defeat fascism and nazism, but our political aims still differ greatly.

Kevin

 

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26 minutes ago, boxofbits said:

The Russians helped us win WW2

They and some historians would have it the other way around Kevin.  Certainly the Russians had by far the highest casualty rate (but they didn't enter the war until June 1941 and Barbarossa - until then they had a pact with Germany). 

As Stalin is reputed to have said - the war was won by British brains, American brawn, and Russian blood.

I have an excellent book called "Prisoners of Geography" which goes some way to explain the Russian fear of encirclement which apparently still drives much of their thinking. 

Edited by RobH
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It was an alliance of necessity against a common enemy with a complete political divide, I suspect better Russian and German deaths than British. Once the outcome was known post Stalingrad Stalin was already making it known what he thought post Europe was to look like as did Churchill who as Britians influence was spent failed to convince the USA to take Communist Russia out. The atomic bomb would have guaranteed the outcome, not that there would have being much left to argue over. 

Left to their own the Germans would have continued to encircle, isolate and destroy the many Russians armies they put into the field 200,000 was small beer in terms of the numbers of Russians prisoners the Germans took. Only the combined industrial might and artic convoys of the USA and Britain bought enough time for D Day to become a viable proposition as Russia chewed through the German reserves at a massive cost. 

Stalin was always an opportunist he thought the weakened post WWI European and Britain would cave to the German Wehrmacht and he could buy time for a war with Germany at a later date which he knew would be coming as their ideologies were total opposites. On being told the Germans had launched Barbarossa he retired to his dacha expecting to be arrested and shot as it was he was amazed to be asked what should be done.

Unfortunately history has a strange way of repeating itself and as humans we seldom seem to lean from it only this time if the Ukraine turn hot the weapons available now could result in Armageddon. Hope not I want to finish my car!

The vested parties need locking in a room until agreement is reached there are bigger planetary issues to address like climate and population growth. 

Edited by PodOne
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Putin may have been emboldened by west's ineffective retaliation to Crimea land-grab. I dont see NATO or EU nations entering a shooting war should Putin invade eastern Ukraine. Sanctions that hit all Russians hard will merely win Putin support at home. So my guess is Ukraine ends up divided with russian-speaking east joining Crimea.

Or US could supply Ukraine army artillery with battle-field nuke shells..........

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The main problem …as I see it …. Is that you cannot predict what the nutter / psychopath in Russia is going to do or what he wants to achieve . 

History has seen plenty of his kind . 
 

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