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A Sobering Thought


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Hold on hold on hold on. The table posted above was the aggregate for all modes. 25% <1 mile looked wrong for cars, and indeed they are. Here is the 2020 survey data broken down by mode. As you can see, only 6% of car journeys were less than 1 mile.

(It does show however that, as Mick said, 99% of car trips were less than 100 miles and that does illustrate well the potential for EVs.)

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I'll throw this one in the snug and run.....

The present Mrs Cluley and I went down to Cornwall for a break a couple of weeks ago. We stayed in a little NT cabin on the side of the Helford river, only access, a very steep, slippery track that my old diesel estate just about managed.

We came and went at all times of the day/night in the car and also averaged 15,000 steps a day (the pub was about 200 of those thankfully!). Then we moved up to stay with friends in Looe and then came back to the midlands late at night.

750 miles, Total cost in fuel £100 and we did it all just when we wanted too. No waiting on stations/ bus stops in the rain and nothing turning up. We were dry and warm and the dog could sleep all he wanted. I know there's all the other running costs to take in to account and they are spread over the year......but.....

My point is....ITS CHEAP! try getting public transport to Helford village, I've just googled it; 13 hours by train and to frightened to look at costs.

 

I'll get me coat.......

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15 hours ago, Nigel C said:

I'll throw this one in the snug and run.....

The present Mrs Cluley and I went down to Cornwall for a break a couple of weeks ago. We stayed in a little NT cabin on the side of the Helford river, only access, a very steep, slippery track that my old diesel estate just about managed.

We came and went at all times of the day/night in the car and also averaged 15,000 steps a day (the pub was about 200 of those thankfully!). Then we moved up to stay with friends in Looe and then came back to the midlands late at night.

750 miles, Total cost in fuel £100 and we did it all just when we wanted too. No waiting on stations/ bus stops in the rain and nothing turning up. We were dry and warm and the dog could sleep all he wanted. I know there's all the other running costs to take in to account and they are spread over the year......but.....

My point is....ITS CHEAP! try getting public transport to Helford village, I've just googled it; 13 hours by train and to frightened to look at costs.

 

I'll get me coat.......

Should have stopped by to say hello while you were down.

Stuart.

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On 11/29/2021 at 7:57 PM, Nigel C said:

I'll throw this one in the snug and run.....

The present Mrs Cluley and I went down to Cornwall for a break a couple of weeks ago. We stayed in a little NT cabin on the side of the Helford river, only access, a very steep, slippery track that my old diesel estate just about managed.

We came and went at all times of the day/night in the car and also averaged 15,000 steps a day (the pub was about 200 of those thankfully!). Then we moved up to stay with friends in Looe and then came back to the midlands late at night.

750 miles, Total cost in fuel £100 and we did it all just when we wanted too. No waiting on stations/ bus stops in the rain and nothing turning up. We were dry and warm and the dog could sleep all he wanted. I know there's all the other running costs to take in to account and they are spread over the year......but.....

My point is....ITS CHEAP! try getting public transport to Helford village, I've just googled it; 13 hours by train and to frightened to look at costs.

 

I'll get me coat.......

That illustrates one problem very well. Even if 300+ days of the year an EV could meet all commuting and local leisure needs quite happily, it's the 'edge use-cases' that can create barriers, at least in the short term.

Petrol is indeed cheap. Most of us (including me, we are still an all-ICE household at this point) are hooked on it. The reason for that, as the eco-warriors or any economist actually will tell us, is that the full real cost of oil in terms both of its local harms (including congestion) and of its future global harm (CC) isn't priced in. If those externalities were accounted for, petrol or diesel would need to be considerably higher per litre than they are even under the current UK fuel taxes.

Back to the 'edge cases' - actually I suspect the market will respond to that by offering more innovative and flexible 'personal travel packages' available. After all, increasing numbers of city dwellers don't own a car at all but rent the most suitable vehicle when they want to go out of town to visit their granny in Upper Snoring or head to the hills. For certain types of travel an ICE will presumably remain the most popular rental option for a while.

Nigel

 

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4 minutes ago, Bleednipple said:

the full real cost of oil in terms both of its local harms (including congestion) and of its future global harm (CC) isn't priced in. 

And neither is it for batteries Nigel - the environmental costs are still mainly invisible at the moment.  

The fuel taxes for battery cars are ultimately paid for through increasingly expensive electricity bills - and those are paid whether or not you run a car at all.   At least petrol tax is only paid by those who use it. 

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8 minutes ago, RobH said:

And neither is it for batteries Nigel - the environmental costs are still mainly invisible at the moment.  

The fuel taxes for battery cars are ultimately paid for through increasingly expensive electricity bills - and those are paid whether or not you run a car at all.   At least petrol tax is only paid by those who use it. 

Both points entirely correct of course. Re second point I think however that electricity pricing is going to be a challenge because to incentivise shift to electric home heating (mainly heat pumps) will require increasing differentials.

The relative env. costs of batteries is hard to nail down, and at the moment I think rather obscured by a lot of shrieking by the anti-EV lobby. Yes there is damage done by rare metals mining, but how much and to what extent is that likely to be moderated by pressure from buyers not to source from the worst-case mining ops? I don't know if any good econometric analysis has actually been done on all that, while it certainly has been done for fossil fuels.

Nigel

Edited by Bleednipple
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