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Water is a weird substance! The product of two gases, it's a liquid at room temp, has the greatest heat of vaporisation of any substance, and expands when it freezes!  Nothing else does this, and unless it did, life on this Earth, and probably any other, could not exist.    But as Rob says, there ain't no such thing as 'dead' water!

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One thing no ones mentioned in the debate & a major factor why the ICE will shortly come to the end of its evolutionary life is hard economics. The major cost of electric cars is the battery or fuel cell (take your pick). This will be resolved by manufacturing development, technology & mass production. At that point cars will be much cheaper for manufacturers to produce (the consumer will ultimately pick up the cost of recharge/refuel infrastructure). No complex mechanicals, fewer ancillary components, low cost electronics & motors mean the ICE is dead technology I'm afraid. The only debate is how electric vehicles will be powered.

Tin hat on :huh:

Alan

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Does anyone believe that the in the future in the UK there will be cars available for almost everyone? Is the legislative noose not tightening around cities for parking, traffic jams etc. Are we not heading for a personal-transport free country?

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Super6al, no tin hat required!   But I'll add that the ICE is a very inefficient technology.      Even the latest engines, with Direct Injection, Swirl, Tumble and Stratified Charge, so able to run extremely lean, are very inefficient, struggling to lose less than 50% of the fuel burnt on heat, noise and vibration losses.      In contrast, electric motors are 70-98% efficient, depending on the way they are used,  in converting the power supplied into motion.   This is supplemented by their very wide torque band, so that a gear box with its own losses is not needed.   

Barker, if you have visited London, you may have seen the future!      There, public transport is so readily available, buses, trains, the Tube and taxis, that there is no need to own a car.      Yes, it costs a lot in subsidies (not taxis!), and doesn't offer a solution to the caravan owner or racer who tows his car to meetings, but that is the way we will go!

At home, I volunteer for a local charity, that offers to 'taxi' mainly old people who don't drive, to go shopping or visit clinics etc.     This is similar to the Uber model, which I could sign up for too, but don't.    That's another way that personal car ownership may diminish.

John

 

Edited by john.r.davies
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There is a problem with electickery. There may not be enough rare earth elements on the planet needed for magnets in electric motors and generators. If that proves to be insuperable, personal transport may be limited in capacity and performance: e-bikes or scooters.

Peter

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You mean that we will all be scooting, not driving about, Peter?

Will we hear the commentator at Charlie's Coronation, which cannot be far away, Godbless'Er, say  "And the King, smiling graciously, arrives at the Abbey and hands his scooter to an equerry"?

Edited by john.r.davies
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Yes we are seeing the beginning of a shift away from easy, cheap personal transport for everyone.  It was a passing phase which lasted about 60 years or less, for the common folk.  

It goes further than that too.  Energy for heating and cooking will become very much more expensive as will food, and the increased demand for public transport will make that more expensive too so there will be rather less spare cash available to most. The out-of-town shopping malls are doomed long term as that business model just won't work, but it might be better news for the high-street and white (electric) delivery van-man.  

 I'm afraid the future will involve long waits at damp bus-stops for most people in towns, while country folk will just have to walk until rural public transport revives.  

Whoopee - can't wait.

 

 

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Rob, You leave out the Uber model.      Taxi from your doorstep, to your doorstep, even in the countryside.     More expensive of course, but could be robotic by then.   

I'm unsure that it will be quite like Arnie's Johnnycab, but this was made 30 years ago!

 

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Scarce reources for batteries and magnets may mean all vehicles have to be used maximally, not left parked for 23 out of 24 hours. So: e-vans for home deliveries, e-taxis with shared driivers, public transport in cities, limited rural public transport. Slow, stopping trains to max track capacity. The daily commute or weekly shopping trip by private car may  be impossible. Perhaps  rural travel can be facilitated for short distances with cruder, limited range lead-acid batteries and soft iron magnets. Life in general will become much more local, slower, and hopefully more community-based. Keeping the rural economy moving is essential, 40% of UK food is imported. Diets will return to what is in  season. No flying-in beans or flowers from Africa. etc. Energy for heating in winter ( banned in summer: use the sun) can be minmised by heating only one room. No-one my age grew up with central heating, bedrooms ran cold, we had eiderdowns, blankets and often frost on the inside of windows. Monty Python's Yorkshiremen saw the future " I grew up in a paper bag". 

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Cant disagree with anyone on here saying just stick with the current ICE. The costs of electric engines and batteries will come down massively over the next 5-10 years. But right now you are looking at £25K minimum for someone to do it for you, and you'll lose the engine notes. I would wait and wait and wait some more. As that economist man said “Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”

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38 minutes ago, OWEN WB said:

Cant disagree with anyone on here saying just stick with the current ICE. The costs of electric engines and batteries will come down massively over the next 5-10 years. But right now you are looking at £25K minimum for someone to do it for you, and you'll lose the engine notes. I would wait and wait and wait some more. As that economist man said “Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”

no one is doing conversion for you for £25K. You're looking at that for parts only

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1 hour ago, OWEN WB said:

... I would wait and wait and wait some more.

The problem I said at the top is I very soon have to choose to either spend at least £7+k now on petrol only to scrap it in not very many years.

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3 minutes ago, Richard Pope said:

The problem I said at the top is I very soon have to choose to either spend at least £7+k now on petrol only to scrap it in not very many years.

likely electric conversion costs will reduce so you may well save 7k by converting later anyway. batteries are major cost and after market inverter control, charge control etc. battery prices will be lower as more donor cars will be around etc

i wouldn't look at it as a financial question at the moment. do you want an electric TR? That is the question....

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7 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Super6al, no tin hat required!   But I'll add that the ICE is a very inefficient technology.      Even the latest engines, with Direct Injection, Swirl, Tumble and Stratified Charge, so able to run extremely lean, are very inefficient, struggling to lose less than 50% of the fuel burnt on heat, noise and vibration losses.      In contrast, electric motors are 70-98% efficient, depending on the way they are used,  in converting the power supplied into motion.   This is supplemented by their very wide torque band, so that a gear box with its own losses is not needed.   

Barker, if you have visited London, you may have seen the future!      There, public transport is so readily available, buses, trains, the Tube and taxis, that there is no need to own a car.      Yes, it costs a lot in subsidies (not taxis!), and doesn't offer a solution to the caravan owner or racer who tows his car to meetings, but that is the way we will go!

At home, I volunteer for a local charity, that offers to 'taxi' mainly old people who don't drive, to go shopping or visit clinics etc.     This is similar to the Uber model, which I could sign up for too, but don't.    That's another way that personal car ownership may diminish.

John

 

Public transport may be readily available in central London, but try getting to or from work in the outer London area early on a Sunday morning  as I have to do and you will soon realise why people are attached to personal transport.

Mike.

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Mike, I was staying at my son's in Sarf Lunnon, attending the Crystal Palace Sprints.    I needed to be back in the paddock early on Sunday morning.    I asked, should I get a taxi?  No, Dad, there's a bus every 20 minutes!   And the bus stop is a few hundred yards away.

There was a bus, at 0715 on a Sunday morning.  Two other people on it, can't recall the fare but it had to a fraction of a taxi.     

Maybe this is a special example, but travelling with him and his family around London, at weekends, we never need to book, look up timetables, just turn up and the next bus/train/Underground will be along ina few minutes.     That's what "levelling up" should mean for the rest of the country!

John

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20 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Super6al, no tin hat required!   But I'll add that the ICE is a very inefficient technology.      Even the latest engines, with Direct Injection, Swirl, Tumble and Stratified Charge, so able to run extremely lean, are very inefficient, struggling to lose less than 50% of the fuel burnt on heat, noise and vibration losses.      In contrast, electric motors are 70-98% efficient, depending on the way they are used,  in converting the power supplied into motion.   This is supplemented by their very wide torque band, so that a gear box with its own losses is not needed.   

Barker, if you have visited London, you may have seen the future!      There, public transport is so readily available, buses, trains, the Tube and taxis, that there is no need to own a car.      Yes, it costs a lot in subsidies (not taxis!), and doesn't offer a solution to the caravan owner or racer who tows his car to meetings, but that is the way we will go!

At home, I volunteer for a local charity, that offers to 'taxi' mainly old people who don't drive, to go shopping or visit clinics etc.     This is similar to the Uber model, which I could sign up for too, but don't.    That's another way that personal car ownership may diminish.

John

 

John,

You have to be really careful with efficiency levels.. The inefficiency of the electricity generation and power grid also have to be rolled into the figures. In the end the real number needed (which is exceptionally hard to calculate by the way) is CO2 equivalents for each including production and recycling at end of life.. This is a real minefield..

Cheers

Tim

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Hi John,

indeed public transport inside the M25 is a marvel.

Most services during the week are 5 or 10 minutes apart.

Week-ends are also very good. Nothing worst than 30 minutes.

I think part of the problem is that they have so many buses for the week days that they need to keep a good few n the roads at week ends as they have nowhere to park them.

Having said that Governor Khan is having trouble with his TRansport budget. Keeps having to offer the begging bowl for Boris to top up.

 

Roger

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It sounds good John but they can't make a go of it even in London with their huge population. TfL is bankrupt and needs  bail-outs from the taxpayer to stay alive.  Effectively the rest of the country is paying so that Londoners can have cheap and frequent public transport. 

No chance of anything like that working anywhere else. 

 

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Quite humorous discussion. A group of amateurs guessing the future. I learnt years ago that when guessing the future you know you will be wrong, it is just in which direction and by how much you will be wrong that is the question.

Edited by John McCormack
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10 minutes ago, RogerH said:

Nobody has mentioned their own personal Donkey/horse for short A to B transport.

 

Roger

Shanks’s Pony.

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1 hour ago, RobH said:

It sounds good John but they can't make a go of it even in London with their huge population. TfL is bankrupt and needs  bail-outs from the taxpayer to stay alive.  Effectively the rest of the country is paying so that Londoners can have cheap and frequent public transport. 

No chance of anything like that working anywhere else. 

 

Don’t forget that TFL is also catering for all those tourists that stop locals being able to use the tube and buses comfortably or even get anywhere on time.

It’s not that many years ago that I used to wait over an hour sometimes for a bus from South Harrow to Hayes and the same from Hayes to Uxbridge.

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1 hour ago, RogerH said:

Nobody has mentioned their own personal Donkey/horse for short A to B transport.

 

Roger

Methane generation 24/7 rules them out. Dog-carts might work but we are supposed to stop eating meat, so dogs are out. Pigs dont release methane. Pigup trucks.

Peter

 

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1 hour ago, John McCormack said:

Quite humorous discussion. A group of amateurs guessing the future. I learnt years ago that when guessing the future you know you will be wrong, it is just in which direction and by how much you will be wrong that is the question.

Yes, who would think that Oz while its forests combust would still rely upon coal for much of its electricity and a large section of its economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_Australia     No guessing who will build the first TR to run on powdered coal.

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