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How soon should we sell our cars?


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Hello All,

With the news today that internal combustion engine cars will not be manufactured in the UK after 2030 it MUST mean that by 2040-50 petrol stations will be a thing of the past.

Seems a long way away?

For me, at least, the last 20 years seems to have zoomed past.
Just think about all the people on this site alone who have spent several years rebuilding their cars.

2040 will be here before you know it.

(OK, many of us will be in our 90s, but our cars will still exsist.)

So who will be able to use any classic car when there is no petrol to run it on?
Convert it to electric? Hellishly expensive.

Sell it to a museum?
I think the number of classics on the road compared to the number of museums must be over 10,000 to 1.
You would probably have to pay a museum to take it.

Our cars are relatively inexpensive compared to some classics, but even paying, say,£25,000 today for an average TR4 it is a lot to just have to throw away in 20 years time.
What is the scrap metal value of a TR4?
£100?
That’s all you’ll get.

What was the final price of that stolen TR5 that went to auction a few days ago?
£100,000 ?

Who will want it in 20 years time.

It’s totally different to bricks and mortar. All the houses will not suddenly be useless in 20 years time

Classic cars will.

Comments?

Charlie.

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I heard that and thought shall I get my engine up to 170bhp while I can still use it. 
 

 

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Ditto, I shall enjoy it while I can and let someone else worry about it when I’m gone. It’s a valid question though but I suspect that there will be a considerable delay in implementation..............

if I’m still up to it nearer the time I might install a solar panel on the boot lid............

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Hi Charlie

you paint a frightening picture. Sadly one day it will be true.

However you must look at the broader picture. Where does our petrol come from - a small % part of crude oil

Where is the remainder of the crude used and will that disappear in time.

There are many exotic chemicals taken from crude that can only be found there.

So if you crack the crude for the exotic stuff where do you put the other stuff that isn't being used. And back down the hole it came from isn;t the answer.

 

Also the oil producing nations will still want to be rich and the supply will still be there. 

I can visualise many many classic cars in Saudi.

 

Roger

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In the very early days of motoring, the automobilist  bought 'motor spirit' at the chemists. Perhaps we shall go back to that......?   Barring legislation I doubt the stuff will disappear overnight - it will just become rarer and expensive.   It will be a brave (foolish?) government that tells poorer people they can't use their old cars any more and must buy a new one.   

I didn't buy my TR as an investment - I bought it to drive and to enjoy working on.  If it gets scrapped at the same time as I do, it would be fine by me. 
 

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Hi Charlie,

Yes, the world keeps spinning and evolving as does our club... However, further Rob’s note above, this club was formed by enthusiasts, we bought our cars because we enjoyed driving and bodging (translates to ‘fettling’ for the folks who just came involved when other investment cycles took a turn) them... If I only get £100 scrap then yes, I’ll be £25 down on initial purchase price but still so much ‘wealthier’ in so many other ways...

 

It is "totally different to bricks and mortar "........ on that we can all surely agree?.......... In twenty years, when your bungalow is on a flood plain, you won’t be able to drive - or, even push it - up some exciting winding mountain pass:rolleyes:

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When will all the agricultural equipment (often out in the fields, miles from an external power source) and heavy goods vehicles (which drive non-stop for hundreds of miles with 38 ton loads) be capable of running on electricity?  A full tank of diesel keeps such equipment running for a great many hours (Mick could tell us how many).

As long as diesel is required for such applications, there will be petrol (the more volatile component of the crude oil), too.

Ian Cornish

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Don't sell - keep them on the road - get more on the road (read somewhere recently that there are 50% more E Types on the road than 10 years ago) - create the demand for petrol - someone will ensure the supply so long as the cars are not outlawed - it may not be a cheap or widely available, but I personally think doomsday is further away than I need worry about.

Miles

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15 minutes ago, MilesA said:

Don't sell - keep them on the road - get more on the road (read somewhere recently that there are 50% more E Types on the road than 10 years ago) - create the demand for petrol - someone will ensure the supply so long as the cars are not outlawed - it may not be a cheap or widely available, but I personally think doomsday is further away than I need worry about.

Miles

Well said Miles. +1

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As EVs kick in for everyday use (which is a very good thing IMO) I am prepared to bet that interest in owning both classic ICE-powered cars and classic EV-retrofits like the lovely yellow TR6 in TRA issue 324 will grow and indeed their values will too. I say that because I think there is growing interest in all aspects of 'heritage', and as the world gets richer and people have more disposable income, the value of 'heritage assets' tends to increase.

It may be confirmation bias on my part but in the last few years I've noticed growing interest in, and spending on, classic cars. Prices of iconic classic cars (as shown by eg the HAGI indices) seems to be steadily upwards in the long run even it's been on a flat phase since about 2017 after a seven year 'bull market' and there's always a lot of short-term jockeying between individual marques. Classic motorsport seems to be getting bigger audiences and more aspirant participants. The new glossy magazine 'Magneto' typifies the trend (I've just been sent a sample copy and am still drooling).

Will that apply to 'everyday' and mid-priced classic marques like TRs? I see no reason why not, after all they're not making any more TRs than they are Series One E-Types or Ferrari GTOs, the supply of restorable barn finds etc has now more or less ended so the on-the-road population is static. And if some of them get converted to EV powertrains - and surely some people will want that and more companies will spring up to do the retrofits - then that increases the rarity value of those that keep their petrol engines.

How will the eventual closing down of the majority of roadside fuel stations affect all that? Well I'd fully expect the market to respond and innovate. There are lots of ways it could be done, eg at-home bulk petrol tanks (say a couple of hundred litres) for people who have space next to their garage; mobile meet-and-fill or 'pop-up' fuelling locations bookable online; farms setting up small filling stations as a side-hustle revenue generator; and so on.

For lower and mid-value classics though, I think demographics and skills may be an issue. The next generation of owners will be mostly completely unfamiliar with ICE technology and beyond basic servicing will be unable to do serious maintenance on the classics they own, while those skills will also gradually die out in the general motor trade. Classic car maintenance and repair by professionals is bound to drift into expensive territory with the specialist businesses migrating to sites like Bicester Heritage with higher overheads, and having to spend money to train apprentices from scratch which some are already doing (eg through the StarterMotor scheme). For pre-war cars it's already happening and some trades like ash frame repairs and coachbuilding becoming hard to find outside the very high-end specialists who are kept fully busy on £500k Bentleys and Fraser Nashes.

It's a fascinating crystal ball to peer into though.

Nigel

Edited by Bleednipple
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1 hour ago, ianc said:

When will all the agricultural equipment (often out in the fields, miles from an external power source) and heavy goods vehicles (which drive non-stop for hundreds of miles with 38 ton loads) be capable of running on electricity?  A full tank of diesel keeps such equipment running for a great many hours (Mick could tell us how many).

As long as diesel is required for such applications, there will be petrol (the more volatile component of the crude oil), too.

Ian Cornish

and at the other end of the oil distillation spectrum from diesel, is aviation spirit/jet fuel - it will be in demand for quite some time. Petrol is the middle fraction in the distillation process.

Mick Forey posted a link to a battery powered aeroplane on another post, (race between an aeroplane and a TR2) two seater and a range of 200 miles is at the cutting edge of that aviation technology, quite some way from hundreds of passengers and tons of trans continent cargo.

Rather than battery/electric vehicles, bring on the fuel cell, Hydrogen has some life as a future fuel, and has zero emissions other than water, no batteries or significant mining of rare minerals, relatively easily stored................

Ian

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I'm not sure that I would want a 200 litre fuel tank outside and alongside my garage - it's a very volatile fuel.  Vandals could not only steal, they could create an almighty fire.

Diesel is different because it is less volatile and not easy to ignite, but a diesel tank requires a bund large enough to catch the whole contents of the tank in case the tank develops a leak  And the bund needs to be protected so that rain cannot get in and cause spilled diesel to flood and contaminate the surroundings.  When I was a Bursar at a school and we wanted to install a tank to store red diesel for our groundsman's tractor, we had to satisfy a number of agencies that it would not only be secure, but that the installation met all the legislation and regulations (not just fire). 

Ian Cornish

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Anyone who purchased their TR as an investment will be interested in the view which Charlie has described..... and probably thinking of moving their money into another ‘commodity’.

Anyone who purchased their TR as a car, to use and enjoy will carry one enjoying it in its current form for as long as fuel is available, when the outlook for petrol stocks makes running in current form unviable a power-transplant could be arranged - the options for they power-plant may be somewhat different in 30 years than most folk would consider based on the practical constraints in place today.

in the meantime, I will get more grey hair from ageing with my car rather than worrying about fuel supplies or the value of my car (in my mind it is a car, not an investment) .... although i do like Mad Max films so plenty of examples of fuel-scavenging come to mind :) 

....... Andy 

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I am curious to know what the police will use to chase the criminals!, Being that they probably change vehicles on a three yearly basis then by 2033 they will have to have electric vehicles like everyone else. Now we know that electric vehicles can attain very high speeds but how long can they sustain them speeds?. A fast petrol  vehicle with a full tank can probably achieve 250-300 miles at speeds of over 100mph, I have never seen the figures for an equivalent electric vehicle as to sustained high speeds. Perhaps after 2033 crime will be a growth industry so older sporty cars will be in demand.

I hope I am sill around (doubtful) to see the outcome.

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1 hour ago, ntc said:

That is a bold statement, evidence? just saying.

Not sure what “Bold statement” actually means.

I read a thread on here recently that implied that there was an auction of cars and parts that were stolen from their rightful owners.

One of the items was a TR5 that went for about £100,000

From reading that thread I think it reasonable to deduce that the TR5 was one of the stolen items.

If you have a problem with the statement please take it up with the person who made the suggestion.

Hmmm…

Are you the bloke who bought it?

 

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On 11/14/2020 at 9:24 AM, Charlie D said:

 

With the news today that internal combustion engine cars will not be manufactured in the UK after 2030 it MUST mean that by 2040-50 petrol stations will be a thing of the past.

 

I'm sure that around 2035 people will realise the environmental damage done by the manufacture of EVs and insist we all change to some other form of transport energy - maybe hydrogen?

Pete

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  • 1 month later...

Oh no not Hydrogen again! Did you know it costs more in electricity- which comes from coal, wind and nuclear energy at the moment - to produce one kg than it costs for one gallon of diesel sold at the pumps? That is a like for like comparison based on mileage achieved by both fuels- hard to compare any other way. Hydrogen as a fuel is extremely volatile- Hindenburg, and a hydrogen fueling station also that blew up couple of years ago just to name a couple of issues! Also there's the problem of being able to get propulsion energy from the ignition of hydrogen- it's not very energetic! Aeroplane engine manufacturers tried hydrogen years ago and gave it up as a bad job useless - I could go in and on. The problem is huge to save the planet powering vehicles without polluting the atmosphere and poison people- electric looks good but in UK we don't have enough power to charge the cars if everyone changed to electric, hydrogen is bonkers, our govt are trying to be number one in the world to stop vehicles using fossil fuels but have no real roadmap for the way forward it's just all spin on bits of paper for now.

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15 hours ago, michaeldavis39 said:

UK we don't have enough power to charge the cars if everyone changed to electric

That is another myth. To quote from the National Grid website: 

1. Can the UK energy grid really cope with a huge increase in the number of electric vehicles being plugged in for charging?

There are two aspects to whether we have the capacity to manage lots of EVs being plugged in at once – whether we have enough energy and then whether we have sufficient capacity on the wires that carry that energy to where it’s needed.

Enough capacity exists   

With the first of these, the energy element, the most demand for electricity we’ve had in recent years in the UK was for 62GW in 2002. Since then, due to improved energy efficiency such as the installation of solar panels, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16 per cent. Even if the impossible happened and we all switched to EVs overnight, we think demand would only increase by around 10 per cent. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002 and this is well within the range of manageable load fluctuation.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted

Mick

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It's not difficult to convert a classic to run on bioethanol, infact its ideal for supercharging (> 100 RON) . However in the absence of petrol to make E85 the vapour space above the pure ethanol fuel is highly inflammable, the slightest spark... so a method of purging the air in the tank would need to be invented eg washed, cooled exhaust gas.

 

Peter

 

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Mick the statement from the national Grid does not make sense- they say they think demand would only increase by around 10 percent if we all switched overnight to battery powered cars! Come on you don't believe that do you??? They will never admit they can't cope because that would be embarrassing and they are also hoping that new power stations will be built in the future to be able to cope with future demand for electricity- don't forget that besides electric cars the govt are also pushing house builders to install heat pumps too- what do they run on- electricity, mmm so take a 4 bed house 3 people living in it- demand from an air source for heating and hot water is around 10,000kwh per year, most households only use around average 4,000kwh of electric for lighting TV etc from online guesstimates so Mick where's the extra 6000kwh per house and who knows how much per year for the electric car going to come from cos it ain't going to work with the grid we have today that's for sure is it??There's no mention from National Grid on the impact of heat pumps for heating but it will have an impact plus if companies want to use hydrogen that's going to have an impact because you need electricity to make hydrogen- I fear for the future of this countries energy supply I really do because we have not invested in our infrastructure properly for many years.

Edited by michaeldavis39
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29 minutes ago, michaeldavis39 said:

where's the extra 6000kwh per house and who knows how much per year for the electric car going to come from cos it ain't going to work with the grid we have today that's for sure is it??

That's where those 'smart' meters come in handy Michael  -  your supply can be turned off by remote control if the demand gets too high. :ph34r:

 

Edited by RobH
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I think the biggest factor that will reduce the future value of our cars will be demographics. Once the boomers are gone or just get too old to drive there will be far fewer people interested in owning them. That same factor will lead to a decline in many of the current classic car clubs and lead to club mergers.

Stan

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In other news

Will synthetic fuels ride to the rescue of classic cars?

''Those hurdles are being evaluated in multi-million pound research and development programmes, with the most high-profile being run by Porsche, Siemens and the German government. The trio recently announced the Haru Oni project in southern Chile, betting that synthetic fuels could be a viable, ultra-low carbon alternative to fossil fuels. At the same time, Bill Gates, the Microsoft founder, is partially funding Carbon Engineering in Canada.''

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