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This could be the start of a major issue?


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Don’t let it worry you Rod

its press speculation 

stop reading the press. 
 

wait for the horses mouth to announce the facts next week. 
 

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I think there's a lot of potential merit in the Warwick rolling age-release model, in terms of limiting long term economic damage and minimising fatalities. However, I think it's a complete non starter politically.

Nigel

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4 minutes ago, Bleednipple said:

However, I think it's a complete non starter politically.

Absolutely.  Riots in the streets if they try that. Yet another example of a divorced-from-reality academic group. 

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Just now, RobH said:

Absolutely.  Riots in the streets if they try that. Yet another example of a divorced-from-reality academic group. 

What, rioting 50- and 60-somethings? Really??

And I'm actually quite happy if scientists and academics (eg those on SAGE) continue to do analysis objectively on the basis of the facts, and advise our elected representatives accordingly, without having to second-guess the political ramifications which is the job of the politicians.

Nigel

 

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Interestingly all these eminent centres of knowledge spout very fancy rhubarb but have any of them stated that all dead people should be tested for their VitD3 levels.

This simple task could put a totally different hue on the issue.

Research labs are working for profit. Where there is no profit there is no interest.

 

Roger

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1 hour ago, RogerH said:

Interestingly all these eminent centres of knowledge spout very fancy rhubarb but have any of them stated that all dead people should be tested for their VitD3 levels.

This simple task could put a totally different hue on the issue.

Research labs are working for profit. Where there is no profit there is no interest.

 

Roger

Roger

I fear its way more complex than a just a VitD3 deficiency. If it were that simple the CMO/CSA  would be on it. They have no vested interest or chance of pecuniary gain. In fact if they found such a simple solution they would be applauded by all. The fact is, if your immuno-compromised you are at risk. Unfortunately being male is also a risk. ( along with a whole list of other conditions) So are  males more likely to be  VitD3 deficient than age matched females?  

Iain

 

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Rod,

Just press speculation; but one day the country must come out of the bunker, what plan would you prefer, delaying until a vaccine is generally available would be too costly.

So what is wrong with letting the less vulnerable groups out to help build herd immunity? And if it proves to be too dangerous, as it will for some, the vulnerable will be protected.

Or in a great act of altruism would you rather walk the Coronavirus plank?

Alan

 

 

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40 minutes ago, iain said:

Roger

I fear its way more complex than a just a VitD3 deficiency. If it were that simple the CMO/CSA  would be on it. They have no vested interest or chance of pecuniary gain. In fact if they found such a simple solution they would be applauded by all. The fact is, if your immuno-compromised you are at risk. Unfortunately being male is also a risk. ( along with a whole list of other conditions) So are  males more likely to be  VitD3 deficient than age matched females?  

Iain

 

Dont kid yourslef that the CMO or CSA know anything beyond a day or two of undergrad study about D3 and are decades out of date. But they will soon, the journalists are waking up to D3:

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-ethnic-minorities-BAME-communities-risk-racism

The Staggers today, Times tomorrow....

Peter

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43 minutes ago, iain said:

So are  males more likely to be  VitD3 deficient than age matched females?  

Actually yes Iain. A goodly proportion of older women are on medication for osteoporosis and that includes vitamin D (400IU) in the calcium tablets taken twice daily. Not many men are on the same 

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If you have 90 min to spare here is a rapid-fire talk on D3 by one of the world's top D3 clinician-researchers.

Ready, steady, GO.........................

 

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47 minutes ago, JPL said:

Dear Peter,

I am a Physics professor, any chance I could talk to you about VitD Covid and other diseases?

Best Regards

JP

 

JPL, Yes of course. Send me a PM ( personal message) - I prefer not to put email in clear text. 

Peter

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1 hour ago, little jim said:

Pete,

Great that you are telling us that Vit D3 can help us resist Covid, but it certainly isn't a cure.

The situation in Singapore, where Vit D3 should be high in all the residents, still makes a vaccination the priority.

LJ,  I found this : 42%  of  Singapoerans are deficient: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4723156/  Reasons aren't described, but glass doesnt pass UVB, dress.behaviuor, use of sunblock ( slip, slap, slop) all lower D3 producito in urban dwellers.

The south Philippines with a rural population  and a mean 25(OH)D of 100 nmol/L (physiological) is the place providing areal test. But no-one is random testing both 25(OH) and sero-positivieitiy in the same individuals.

OZ and NZ are entering winter and 25(OH)D is declining. COVID will accelerate and lockdown beckons....

Peter

 

 

Edited by Peter Cobbold
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At risk of lowering the tone of this section of the forum, the office next to mine at Depair was occupied b y the RAAF's head nurse. One day she showed me a couple of coloured cardboard  file covers that had been overlapped over each other and in the same position on the desk for a month or two. (We had pretty good overhead fluorescent lighting.)

Under the overlap the dark original colour was there, the exposed bits were a very pale version of the original colour.

Looks like we were getting an unintentional suntan while sitting at our desks.

Edited by little jim
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UVB synthesises D3, UVA doesnt but does the tanning. So depending  upon the fluorescent tubes you may or may not be getting D3 along with a tan.

Narrow-band UVB tubes are made for treating psoriasis, and works via D3.

Peter

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Peter if the data is so robust why are the medical press not picking up on the D3 story? Coverage in the daily’s is all well and good, but without robust clinical evidence it’s just story making. Also to be so blunt in your criticism of the most influential individuals in this crisis is not exactly good PR. Perhaps a better strategy would be to try to influence them with compelling data? Alternatively register for the public questions on the daily C -19 update and get someone to ask the question? Again it’s an emotive subject which is why the questions get selected.

Rob whilst you are absolutely correct that women suffer more from osteoporosis at an earlier age, men have much greater risk from hypertension, CAD, COPD etc Women have the benefit of the cardio protective effects of oestrogen, an effect which only declines which after the menopause. So is the greater male susceptibility related to a compromised cardiopulmonary system at the same age? That certainly is the inference in the second reference below.

As regards the mortality rates seen for ethnic groups working in the NHS clinical arena, the following makes interesting reading. Showing that nearly 35% of all clinical roles are from ethnic groups.

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/workforce-and-business/workforce-diversity/nhs-workforce/latest#by-ethnicity-and-grade-medical-staff

The distribution of deaths from C-19 of healthcare professionals  is here and reinforces the vulnerability of BAME across all specialities and for both sexes.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article

Iain

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Iain, How will the press get to know?  Most hide contact details, and few have any science/medical background to knwo that D is not just another vitamin. The guy put in charge of the BAME-Covid panel is  yet anothet epidemiologist. If he doesnt pick up on D3 the elephant in the room will pass him by.

However, the correct science will always rise to the surface because it is based upon understanding and a broad knowledge base, D3 has been missed by NICE because it bases its decisions on avery narrow protocol  designed for evaluaitng drugs not hormones. That is one almighty cock-up and I suspect that will become evident in the aftermath analysis. The evidence for D3  adequacy prtecting from COVID wont come from UK but from sunny equatorial countires eg Phillipinnes where the populatiton ahve physiollogicla 25(OH)D3 prtecting them naturally.  But that will be too late for many.

Peter

apolgies all fot the typos, one hand works faster than the other and I blame NICE for that too.

I am pressing all the right keys...but not necessarily in the right order.

Edited by Peter Cobbold
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22 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

JPL, Yes of course. Send me a PM ( personal message) - I prefer not to put email in clear text. 

Peter

Hi Peter, 

 

I tried to send you a message from the message icon on the top of the page, but is says that you cannot receive messages like that 

 

JP

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8 minutes ago, JPL said:

Hi Peter, 

 

I tried to send you a message from the message icon on the top of the page, but is says that you cannot receive messages like that 

 

JP

Not sure what device you are using but if you hover over Peters's name in any of his posts you will get a pop up that includes the option to send Peter a message.

Stan

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Peter, this does make unsavoury reading. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/review-into-uk-minority-covid-19-deaths-sparks-controversy/1821361
I share your frustration, getting the message through is difficult and requires a coordinated strategy of communication. How you will achieve this I don’t know unless you can find a philanthropic organisation to rise to the challenge? It’s a long shot but what about the “Gates Foundation” . Only yesterday Mrs G was on radio 4 highlighting that it’s was the worlds ethnic and socially disadvantaged that they were hoping to help with their cross industry and charity work. However you are still avoiding the issue, where is the robust clinical data? All the pre clinical stuff is very encouraging but........perhaps this would be the angle to present to the Gates Foundation.? A chance to make a radical change with some well thought through basic science turned into meaningful clinical data via a trial?

Iain

 

Edited by iain
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3 hours ago, iain said:

Peter, this does make unsavoury reading. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/review-into-uk-minority-covid-19-deaths-sparks-controversy/1821361
I share your frustration, getting the message through is difficult and requires a coordinated strategy of communication. How you will achieve this I don’t know unless you can find a philanthropic organisation to rise to the challenge? It’s a long shot but what about the “Gates Foundation” . Only yesterday Mrs G was on radio 4 highlighting that it’s was the worlds ethnic and socially disadvantaged that they were hoping to help with their cross industry and charity work. However you are still avoiding the issue, where is the robust clinical data? All the pre clinical stuff is very encouraging but........perhaps this would be the angle to present to the Gates Foundation.? A chance to make a radical change with some well thought through basic science turned into meaningful clinical data via a trial?

Iain

 

Iain,  Understanding the role of D3 in covid requires that the entire body of information is embraced and the rquirement of huge numbers of pts in trials relaxed. The data relating 25OH to covid severity in Philippines, Indonesia and Luisiana are convincing enough to embrace D3 deficiency as amjor factor. Sadly I get the impression that BAME activists are using covid deaths as a stcik to beat HMG over social issues, But the covic deaths of highly educated well paid BAME consultants indicates that another facotr is at play: proobably D3.  I apporoached Welsome whi are working with Gates to trial existing drugs, but the proogramme was up and running and they are not interested in D3.

Tks for that link. The author is not contactable, but I'll try the Runnymede trust

Peter

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