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6 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Distinctly sniffy!

 

And any agent that cause Alzheimers or PD (premature dementia?) are very putative (theoretical) indeed!  Let alone their route of entry.     The logistic challenge in the Third World of nasal administration would be an enormous advantage, and many in the developed world would welcome a vaccine that doesn't need an injection!    The oral polio vaccine is safer than the injected type by a factor of about a thousand.

John

John,

Au contraire there is great recent interest in viral infections inducing sporadic PD. For instance  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7516057/

Synuclein the supposed pathogenic protein implicated in PD (Lewy bodies) may in actuality be a defnsive protein in the brain's innate immune system, cathelicidins and synuclein are similar structurally:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7412598/

It follows that persitent brain inflammatio > persistent synuclein defense > accumulation of syn inot aggregates toxic to mitos> oxidative stress> Lewy  bodies> neuronal death.

And the etiology of sporadic PD is in upheaval, is unknown:  Brain Fables ( Alberto Espay)

My expectaion now is that my PD arose from a combination of chronic low D3, leading to persistent viral infections in winter, viral infection of brain via nose (or spike proteins), brain inflammation with poor on-off regulation due to...low D3. 

Peter

 

 

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8 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

J

My expectaion now is that my PD arose from a combination of chronic low D3, leading to persistent viral infections in winter, viral infection of brain via nose (or spike proteins), brain inflammation with poor on-off regulation due to...low D3. 

Peter

 

 

If I have it (or get it) I'll be blaming the light ale.

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"Levelling up", or down?

A while ago here, I told of the failure of the Gov to supply my local project with vaccine, so that despite its early and impressive success in vaccinating 80% of the over 80s and 'vulnerable' in the area, the clinics had to close down completely.      I was scolded by Suzeanne for a selfish attitude, when my wish was not to deprive others of the vaccine, but to enable all to continue to the best of the NHS's ability.      It has always had a limited budget, and now has a limited supply of vaccine - the NHS has always been about rationed healthcare.  

But I'm not the only one complaining.   The NorthEast has been told that the whole region will receive half as much vaccine as expected.    Civic leaders have described this as "a disgrace" (K.McGuinness, Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner), "an outrage" (Nick Forbes, Leader, Newcastle City Council), "I'm furious" (Gannon, Leader, Gateshead Council).   More calmly, Ian Lavery, MP for Wansbeck, said: "It seems somewhat counterintuitive to essentially punish the region for being more efficient than other regions in dealing out the vaccine so far. Instead of slowing us down here in the North East and in Yorkshire it would be better to learn from what has made the vaccine rollout so successful here and try and replicate that in other areas across the country."  A point that I wish I had made more clearly before.  

In my own town, the clinic today received it's first supply  for two weeks, 400 doses which will go to housebound vulnerable people.  It hopes - that is all they can say - for another 800 next Thursday.  All vaccination has ceased, until next Friday, which will use up all that is available, so the weekend clinics are cancelled too.

Meanwhile Matt Hancock has said that "Some areas of the country are starting to vaccinate over 70s and clincially extremely vulnerable people."    How  ill-informed is our Minister for Health, when in the North East and West, we were vaccinating those  groups two weeeks ago, thanks to the enterprise and hard work of our NHS employees.  Hancock told the Commons that while the north-east and Yorkshire region “have gone really fast early on” that “we have to make sure that the vaccination programme is fair everywhere so that everyone in the top four groups can receive that offer of a vaccine by the 15 February”.   We may note his reasons for this rationing are as much to do with fulfilling a  political promise as 'fairness'.

John

 

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6 hours ago, little jim said:

Hey!! I'm doing everything right!

Thanks Pete!

LJ,  its not the result of nicotine. Possibly lithium in the smoke. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04273932#contacts

Peter

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3 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

"Levelling up", or down?

A while ago here, I told of the failure of the Gov to supply my local project with vaccine, so that despite its early and impressive success in vaccinating 80% of the over 80s and 'vulnerable' in the area, the clinics had to close down completely.      I was scolded by Suzeanne for a selfish attitude, when my wish was not to deprive others of the vaccine, but to enable all to continue to the best of the NHS's ability.      It has always had a limited budget, and now has a limited supply of vaccine - the NHS has always been about rationed healthcare.  

But I'm not the only one complaining.   The NorthEast has been told that the whole region will receive half as much vaccine as expected.    Civic leaders have described this as "a disgrace" (K.McGuinness, Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner), "an outrage" (Nick Forbes, Leader, Newcastle City Council), "I'm furious" (Gannon, Leader, Gateshead Council).   More calmly, Ian Lavery, MP for Wansbeck, said: "It seems somewhat counterintuitive to essentially punish the region for being more efficient than other regions in dealing out the vaccine so far. Instead of slowing us down here in the North East and in Yorkshire it would be better to learn from what has made the vaccine rollout so successful here and try and replicate that in other areas across the country."  A point that I wish I had made more clearly before.  

In my own town, the clinic today received it's first supply  for two weeks, 400 doses which will go to housebound vulnerable people.  It hopes - that is all they can say - for another 800 next Thursday.  All vaccination has ceased, until next Friday, which will use up all that is available, so the weekend clinics are cancelled too.

Meanwhile Matt Hancock has said that "Some areas of the country are starting to vaccinate over 70s and clincially extremely vulnerable people."    How  ill-informed is our Minister for Health, when in the North East and West, we were vaccinating those  groups two weeeks ago, thanks to the enterprise and hard work of our NHS employees.  Hancock told the Commons that while the north-east and Yorkshire region “have gone really fast early on” that “we have to make sure that the vaccination programme is fair everywhere so that everyone in the top four groups can receive that offer of a vaccine by the 15 February”.   We may note his reasons for this rationing are as much to do with fulfilling a  political promise as 'fairness'.

John

 

John we have still not heard anything here about being vaccinated one of us is in the extremely vulnerable category......!!! I read a couple of days ago that we have two designated centres one the Compass Centre at LHR and the Winston Churchill hall in Ickenham, the third will be in Hayes but as yet undecided where. It appears that no one locally has had the vaccination yet.

My point previously, when I said you were being selfish was that the vaccine should be allocated in proportion to the size of the population of each area where possible. London has by far the largest population per square meter of land/ per household/ per National Health Authority...........etc .......... take your pick.....!!!!

Perhaps the new variant of CoV is expected to move up the country from London ( as it did last year 2020) and overwhelm you again ( as it did last year 2020) whilst us in West London ( who always get nasties first as in 2020) are just left to get on with it because it’s too late to vaccinate us......  or is it?

Today’s graph for Hillingdon 22/1/21.

 

BCA33759-AE0B-426A-8569-E8BEEFA39238.jpeg

Edited by SuzanneH
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2 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

"Levelling up", or down?

A while ago here, I told of the failure of the Gov to supply my local project with vaccine, so that despite its early and impressive success in vaccinating 80% of the over 80s and 'vulnerable' in the area, the clinics had to close down completely.      I was scolded by Suzeanne for a selfish attitude, when my wish was not to deprive others of the vaccine, but to enable all to continue to the best of the NHS's ability.      It has always had a limited budget, and now has a limited supply of vaccine - the NHS has always been about rationed healthcare.  

But I'm not the only one complaining.   The NorthEast has been told that the whole region will receive half as much vaccine as expected.    Civic leaders have described this as "a disgrace" (K.McGuinness, Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner), "an outrage" (Nick Forbes, Leader, Newcastle City Council), "I'm furious" (Gannon, Leader, Gateshead Council).   More calmly, Ian Lavery, MP for Wansbeck, said: "It seems somewhat counterintuitive to essentially punish the region for being more efficient than other regions in dealing out the vaccine so far. Instead of slowing us down here in the North East and in Yorkshire it would be better to learn from what has made the vaccine rollout so successful here and try and replicate that in other areas across the country."  A point that I wish I had made more clearly before.  

In my own town, the clinic today received it's first supply  for two weeks, 400 doses which will go to housebound vulnerable people.  It hopes - that is all they can say - for another 800 next Thursday.  All vaccination has ceased, until next Friday, which will use up all that is available, so the weekend clinics are cancelled too.

Meanwhile Matt Hancock has said that "Some areas of the country are starting to vaccinate over 70s and clincially extremely vulnerable people."    How  ill-informed is our Minister for Health, when in the North East and West, we were vaccinating those  groups two weeeks ago, thanks to the enterprise and hard work of our NHS employees.  Hancock told the Commons that while the north-east and Yorkshire region “have gone really fast early on” that “we have to make sure that the vaccination programme is fair everywhere so that everyone in the top four groups can receive that offer of a vaccine by the 15 February”.   We may note his reasons for this rationing are as much to do with fulfilling a  political promise as 'fairness'.

John

 

The mistake that Hancock has made was to talk about "fairness". That should not be a factor, but neither should a region should be 'rewarded' in some way for being efficient. Instead, protection should be provided, and its delivery prioritised, on the basis of need alone (applying the humanitarian principles of impartiality and universality).

As it's obviously not feasible to assess the vulnerability of the population at an individual level, it seems quite reasonable to have split the population into age bands (age being by far the biggest risk factor for covid), plus the group for people with certain very high risk health conditions, and then simply do the best to evenly deliver and deploy vaccinations nation-wide in those banded priorities, shifting resource as far as possible between regions until each band is done (pragmatically, this will be an imperfect process of course).

Nigel

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Its not elderlies dying in ICUs at present as they are in fear of thier lives and shielding. So vaccianting them is not going to hlep much in reducing spread or even saving thier lives as long as they shield. Oldies in care homes cannot shield so should be a priority. To me it seems more logical to target vulnerable and elderly whose share dwellings with younger family mmebers particularly children.Especailly BAME extended families.

If I get jabbed and continue to shield it helps no-one.

Peter

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36 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Its not elderlies dying in ICUs at present as they are in fear of thier lives and shielding. So vaccianting them is not going to hlep much in reducing spread or even saving thier lives as long as they shield. Oldies in care homes cannot shield so should be a priority. To me it seems more logical to target vulnerable and elderly whose share dwellings with younger family mmebers particularly children.Especailly BAME extended families.

If I get jabbed and continue to shield it helps no-one.

Peter

That may be a good approach, your argument about older people living independently not being highest risk due to their limited exposure makes sense to me. However the train has left the station and rolling through the first four cohorts as currently classified is going pretty well overall as far as I can see. The progress across the regions seems reasonably balanced, although presumably there is an argument for shifting resource between regions (as far as possible) based on shifts in the geography of infection.

The bun fight is coming next, ie whether to prioritise certain groups based on occupation.

Nigel

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Peter,

"Elderlies" - The Elders, Our Elders? - don't die in ICUs because critical care admission protocols have been and have always 'triaged' potential patients on the basis of how they are likely to benefit from this scarce resource.    Scarce, regionally and nationally, as this map shows

image.thumb.png.f718954714a07c8e851fbeb1c18e0d40.png

(Ref: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7472675/#:~:text=Previous research identified substantial differences,%3A 11.5) [8].)

That very poor access exists in northern Sweden, the French Alps, Pyranees and other mountainous regions, and is good around conurbations is not unexpected, but compare the coverage in Germany and Austria with ours!   Germany has four times as many ICU beds as the UK, per 100,000 population!

'Triage' is a military term for sorting patients according to their need and likely benefit from treatment.    Someone over 80 years of age, usually not always, with 'comorbidities', is less likely to survive a period of artificial ventilation, and so may not be accepted into an ICU.   If they die, will do so elsewhere.     The median age for those who have died in ICU recently is 56.   So the abscence of our elders from the list of ICU deaths means only that there are very many younger patients who are admitted, but still die.

 

Thank you, Suzeanne and Nigel, for your thoughtful replies.   Suzeanne, I fully understand your anguish and concern at still not getting at least a first dose of vaccine!   I won't repeat my views on why that is so, but sincerely hope that you will have it soon.    Nigel, I hope you recognise that I would not want 'reward' for our local, efficent and effective project but for it to be allowed to continue.

I hear this evening that another batch of vaccine has been 'obtained'!   Pfizer this time - we're not fussy! - Chief Nurse is hot-footting it down South as I write to bring it back, and it will all be used up tomorrow, Saturday, with a short clinic arranged (pre-arranged, cancelled and re-arranged) on Monday to  make sure it's all used.     That's another 900 patients - Hooray!   We still hope for more by next Friday, but I'm not holding my breath.

John

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This topic has gone to far imho when we have people saying vaccinations or not is over the top and like the some others here this is my opinion and sod you without saying what they would do if you want to be in politics stand put up or shut up 

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?

Has anyone else noticed that all the latest government briefings etc refer to "the" vaccine as if there is only one?

In my naivety I expected that after a few weeks some individual characteristics of the different vaccines would have been noted with perhaps one having fewer adverse reactions in older people or similar so that the type of vaccine could be targeted to the patient. Has anyone one seen any information, presumably from the Yellow Card reporting on vaccine characteristics?

Alan

 

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I think it may be an individual response to immunisation, Alan.

I've had many such in my life, including some foreign travel ones that have a bad name, and I have never, ever had any reaction at all!     Somewhat worrying is that on the one occasion that my response was measured, against Hepatitis B vaccine, I did not 'seroconvert', develop antibodies, even after two more inoculations!      Either my immune system is cr*p and doesn't even notice - seems unlikely as I heal well to the usual minor trauma - or it overwhelms any foreign invader with so little difficulty it just brushes off its coat and walks on.

John

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10 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

"Levelling up", or down?

A while ago here, I told of the failure of the Gov to supply my local project with vaccine, so that despite its early and impressive success in vaccinating 80% of the over 80s and 'vulnerable' in the area, the clinics had to close down completely.      I was scolded by Suzeanne for a selfish attitude, when my wish was not to deprive others of the vaccine, but to enable all to continue to the best of the NHS's ability.      It has always had a limited budget, and now has a limited supply of vaccine - the NHS has always been about rationed healthcare.  

 

John

 

Is the problem lack of supply or lack of enough purchases? Either way it is rather sad.

Our mob have arranged to buy more than enough but are waiting for all the i's to be dotted and t's to be crossed on the test trials.

With the rigid outbreak control system this isn.t causing problems. The tennis players are currently our main source.

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"The Race for a Vaccine - Are vaccines the answer?"  a symposium at the Royal Society (Britain's premier science organsiation) is to be streamed online, chaired by Prof. Brian Cox, Thursday 28th Jan, 1800.  Join and watch at:

https://royalsociety.org/science-events-and-lectures/2021/01/vaccine-race/?fbclid=IwAR20l7hhdVgsPbrWj4sg4yf_MHnLhYVSlPmaXpHsVUFlBNE3k2pAZ9mQzRU

John

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Only a press release but possibly worth watching - possible application of anti-inflammatory colchicine to reduce covid hospital admissions:

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-researchers-say-they-have-found-an-effective-drug-to-fight-covid-19-1.5279310?fbclid=IwAR3991LY4pto9UjBioBBWUOa6oPyT8Sn6vUJf-H9cu3U_MikPUZ9R86cyBs

Nigel

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"Only 800-1000 IU/day"

But, according to Mustapha and Hegerty, "A whole body exposure to UVB radiation inducing the light pink color of the minimal erythema dose for 15–20 min is able to induce the production of up to 250 μg vitamin D (10,000 IU)"  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4642156/#:~:text=Vitamin D synthesis in the skin&text=A whole body exposure to,13]%2C [14]

But "minimal erythema dose" is highly variable, so that the Fitzpatrick classiciation has six groups, from I, who burn but don't tan, to VI who never burn and tan darkly.    But Fitzpatrick is about white people - it doesn't apply to people with anythin g other than a North European ancestry.      Even among them, there is so much variation that Hecknman et al produced a complex and detailed protocol for patients about to undergo UV light treatment, to determine a safe dose: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734971/

So what is a 'physiological' level??

 

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4 hours ago, Mick Forey said:

 Rose Kennedy signed the Open Letter but fails to mention most on there take 4000.................

 

 

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2 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

"Only 800-1000 IU/day"

But, according to Mustapha and Hegerty, "A whole body exposure to UVB radiation inducing the light pink color of the minimal erythema dose for 15–20 min is able to induce the production of up to 250 μg vitamin D (10,000 IU)"  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4642156/#:~:text=Vitamin D synthesis in the skin&text=A whole body exposure to,13]%2C [14]

But "minimal erythema dose" is highly variable, so that the Fitzpatrick classiciation has six groups, from I, who burn but don't tan, to VI who never burn and tan darkly.    But Fitzpatrick is about white people - it doesn't apply to people with anythin g other than a North European ancestry.      Even among them, there is so much variation that Hecknman et al produced a complex and detailed protocol for patients about to undergo UV light treatment, to determine a safe dose: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734971/

So what is a 'physiological' level??

 

UVB action on dehydrochollesterol is not enzyme mediated. It is a chemical reaction that  ends when all the dehydrocholesteol is used up. Its enough to deliver 10 to20,000 iU daily wnetever skin coloure, it jsut takes longer in dark skins, up to 5 fold IIRC. Dehydrocholesterol is replensihed so the produciton of D3 at thhat rate can continue indefinitely. Resultannt serum 25(OH)D can be up to 350 nmol/L, as recorded in CA beach lifeguards.

However physiologicla 25(OH)D is between 100 --150 nmol/L

Peter

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44 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

 

So what is a 'physiological' level??

 

I have asked this question too John, but it is side stepped with the grace of Phil Bennett in his pomp:D

Iain

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