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3 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

IC's study is not one of vaccine effectiveness, nor age related infectiveness, but a dosing finding study, to illuminate epidemiology.     Given the far greater lethality of Covid on the aged, it would be unethical to include us.

And if there is a "non-drug" cure for TB I'm sure that India would love to know about it.   

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960076017301929?via%3Dihub

Peter

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https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

This article is worrying reading. SAGE has ensured all our eggs are in one vaccination basket. And we wont know if any of them work. The Rapid Responses include an analysis of flu vaccines, that previously I had assumed was a good thing. Now I am not convinced the annual  jab works.

Peter

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Thank you, Peter!     I was surprised by an article in yesterday's Guardian, OK, possibly stimulated by the same concerns as the BMJ piece,   Both are respectable journalism, not peer reviewed.

Their Health Editor, Sarah Boseley, wrote that trials for the six vaccines that the UK has contracted to buy if effective have recruited 50,000 people.    And they are all double blinded, well designed trials.    Great stuff, what medical science is made of, but then you look at the numbers that must be acheived to allow unblinding.   

Once a certain number of the trial participants have been shown to have Covid, then their dose code, telling if they had a vaccine or salty water, can be revealed.    For the Pfizer trial that number is 32!    32 people, with Covid, to decide if that vaccine is fit to be given to millions of people!     And they will 'look again' when there are 62, 92 and 120 infections.   This is not just that trial - the others expect to look at similarly low numbers, in only two digits.

I know that I don't know enough statistics to criticise this.    I know that in the world, only 0.6% of the whole population has caught Covid yet, so few on the trials will do so,  but surely this isn't to allow exceptions to be made, data-mining to occur, to boost the case for a particular vaccine?     There has to be a point at which they 'break the code', but so early?    We desperately hope that a vaccine will let us get back to something like normal, and even an "emergency licence" for a vaccine will not come until the middle of next year - and then it will only be available in small amounts despite global arrangements to produce it evetually in vast quantities.

We are far from the edge of the woods.

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3 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Thank you, Peter!     I was surprised by an article in yesterday's Guardian, OK, possibly stimulated by the same concerns as the BMJ piece,   Both are respectable journalism, not peer reviewed.

Their Health Editor, Sarah Boseley, wrote that trials for the six vaccines that the UK has contracted to buy if effective have recruited 50,000 people.    And they are all double blinded, well designed trials.    Great stuff, what medical science is made of, but then you look at the numbers that must be acheived to allow unblinding.   

Once a certain number of the trial participants have been shown to have Covid, then their dose code, telling if they had a vaccine or salty water, can be revealed.    For the Pfizer trial that number is 32!    32 people, with Covid, to decide if that vaccine is fit to be given to millions of people!     And they will 'look again' when there are 62, 92 and 120 infections.   This is not just that trial - the others expect to look at similarly low numbers, in only two digits.

I know that I don't know enough statistics to criticise this.    I know that in the world, only 0.6% of the whole population has caught Covid yet, so few on the trials will do so,  but surely this isn't to allow exceptions to be made, data-mining to occur, to boost the case for a particular vaccine?     There has to be a point at which they 'break the code', but so early?    We desperately hope that a vaccine will let us get back to something like normal, and even an "emergency licence" for a vaccine will not come until the middle of next year - and then it will only be available in small amounts despite global arrangements to produce it evetually in vast quantities.

We are far from the edge of the woods.

John,

I suppose numbers could be ramped up with vaccination followed by deliberate virus challenge. But theyd surely test only young people not the oldies or others most at risk.

Its not looking good for 2021.

Peter 

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New review of D3-C19 including Bradford-Hill crtiteria of causality ( as used to elucidate beyond reasonable doubt smoking risks)

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/11/3361/htm

Peter

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Well done Prof Peter and all here and all who have campaigned the D3 cause, they are at long last talking about it in Parliament today and Scotland have taken the lead by giving vulnerable Scots D3.

Hooray Hooray Hooray

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4 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Don't know when this petition started but it definitely needs more support: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/334109

Mick

Thanks Mick, I’ve just signed it and only 161 people have signed it so far.

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+ 1 for signing.

Mick Richards

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19 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Don't know when this petition started 

They all have a duration of 6 months, so it has been active since the first-half of August

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21 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Don't know when this petition started but it definitely needs more support: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/334109

Mick

Anne Thomas is in the campaign group. She started the  petition in Feb, so we can see the scale of the problem in getting the message out,

Peter

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1 minute ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Anne Thomas is in the campaign group. She started the  petition in Feb, so we can see the scale of the problem in getting the message out,

Peter

doh, brain  fade, August. I think I was fourth to sign. Its been a loooong slog.

Today's work just posted on BMJ:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3944/rr-0

Peter

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59 minutes ago, SuzanneH said:

Well done Prof Peter and all here and all who have campaigned the D3 cause, they are at long last talking about it in Parliament today and Scotland have taken the lead by giving vulnerable Scots D3.

Hooray Hooray Hooray

Tks Sue, I was not aware MPs are raising D3 in the House. The campaign group has its roots in Scotland and is making better progress there. but I am uncertain what dose is being advised.

Peter

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1 hour ago, barkerwilliams said:

Probably not applicable to most TR owners but many of us have offspring it may affect.

https://neurosciencenews.com/iq-pregnancy-vitamin-d-17240/

Alan

Alan, We see D3 deficicncy as a risk factor for a whole host of diseaseases, but this must be one of the worst, a life-long disadvantage.  Another aspect of brain development under influence of D3 in utero is autism, and a UK chairity is aware:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-4

Sun-soaked Somalia has very little incidence of autism but when Somali women who have emgrated to Canada and get pregnant there the incidence rockets. They call it the "western disease".

For  far too long - and it continues today -  medicine has ignored D3, and the widespread deficiency is the norm in most western societies. Eventually this will be recognised. In the meantime I tell the younger family members that a  daily capsule of 2000 IU ,taken for life, should deliver them many health benefits. I point them ot the list of diseases on vitamindwiki as an idea of what they might avoid.

Peter

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20 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Alan, We see D3 deficicncy as a risk factor for a whole host of diseaseases, but this must be one of the worst, a life-long disadvantage.  Another aspect of brain development under influence of D3 in utero is autism, and a UK chairity is aware:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-4

Sun-soaked Somalia has very little incidence of autism but when Somali women who have emgrated to Canada and get pregnant there the incidence rockets. They call it the "western disease".

For  far too long - and it continues today -  medicine has ignored D3, and the widespread deficiency is the norm in most western societies. Eventually this will be recognised. In the meantime I tell the younger family members that a  daily capsule of 2000 IU ,taken for life, should deliver them many health benefits. I point them ot the list of diseases on vitamindwiki as an idea of what they might avoid.

Peter

Peter,

Being as they are members of the BAME community how do the Somalians in Somalia manage to acquire enough D3 when their skin colour is stripping the D3 out ? or is it a case of they have that much sun it just batters it's way through ?

I think Sweden has a largish Somali or other African community and they have suffered in a mirror image to your suggestion.  

Mick Richards

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56 minutes ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

Peter,

Being as they are members of the BAME community how do the Somalians in Somalia manage to acquire enough D3 when their skin colour is stripping the D3 out ? or is it a case of they have that much sun it just batters it's way through ?

I think Sweden has a largish Somali or other African community and they have suffered in a mirror image to your suggestion.  

Mick Richards

Very dark skin is apparently not of itself a barrier to high Vit D uptake by people living in equatorial zones, given that Vit D studies frequently reference reports that Hadza and Maasai people living traditional lifestyles in Kenya tend to exhibit high serum levels. The emphasis here though is the lifestyle bit.

(Kenya of course is on the same latitude as southern Somalia. And I can tell you from personal experience that the sun intensity in NE Kenya is, well... intense.)

I saw another study in the Kenyan population that showed a substantial minority (15%+) as being D-deficient at <20 ng/ml. The presumption being that these studies included a high proportion of people living 'modern' lifestyles and livelihoods with much less opportunity for substantial daily sun exposure. They also suggested that higher body fat among the 'modern lifestyle' study subjects, especially the females, seriously affected their D take-up.

Nigel

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