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Professor Adrian Martineau was on Radio 4 (25:05 for 3:30) this morning publicising his CORONAVIT study giving 5000 people 400, 800 or 3200IU of vitamin D for 6 months. They want volunteers who aren't currently taking vitamin D - which rules out many of us - to contact them by 10pm Sunday evening. Shame they weren't doing this 6 months ago!

Cheers, Richard

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12 minutes ago, Spit_2.5PI said:

Professor Adrian Martineau was on Radio 4 (25:05 for 3:30) this morning publicising his CORONAVIT study giving 5000 people 400, 800 or 3200IU of vitamin D for 6 months. They want volunteers who aren't currently taking vitamin D - which rules out many of us - to contact them by 10pm Sunday evening. Shame they weren't doing this 6 months ago!

Cheers, Richard

He would have started earlier but the Wellcome-Gates "Accelerator" banned funding of vitamins.

Interesting to see 3200 IU  being used, it must have passed safety scrutiny !!

Peter

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Southall (Ealing) has the third most ethnically doverse population in the UK, but also a high incidence of low pay, deprivation and single parent families (https://www.ealing.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/7402/private_stock_housing_strategy-evidence_base)    

John

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There are relatively more immigrants  in our hospitals due to Covid, but are not careful or even ignorant?
They also work in lower paid “contact jobs” so are exposed to higher risk and additionally have less health. So are they to blame?

I feel it would be to easy to say that, but one of our politicians did.

Waldi

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No doubt the special benefits of VitD will be confirmed shortly, but those of several remedies (for we can now no longer call them cures) for Covid have been shown to be non-existant.   WHO have released the results of the Solidarity Trial, that tested Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquinine, Lopinovir and Interferon.  This trial is a 'gold standard' randomised, controlled trial, with 3000 people in each arm, matched to another 3000 controls in 30 countries, that will be difficult to contradict.   None of the remedies showed any benefit at all in terms of survival.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/solidarity-clinical-trial-for-covid-19-treatments

This is a tad embarassing for the EU Commission that has contracted with Gilead, the makers of Remdesivir, to buy 850 million Euros worth of the drug, at a cost of $2000 a shot.

 

 

Edited by john.r.davies
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.......and still they ignore 'the old wives tale'  D3.

 

It''s a bit like dock leaves relieving stinging nettle stings. 

It does work even without an RCT

And thanks to the endorphins it does it well.

 

Roger

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I have never found dock leaves to be of any use to relieve a sting from a nettle.

Just saying.

Bob.

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6 minutes ago, Lebro said:

I have never found dock leaves to be of any use to relieve a sting from a nettle.

Just saying.

Bob.

That's the point. It is the rubbing that does it, but it must be vigourous

 

Roger

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40 minutes ago, RogerH said:

That's the point. It is the rubbing that does it, but it must be vigourous

 

Roger

You don't mean that the VitD is a mere association, do you, Roger?    Sugar pills would do as well, if the right colour?

This is the problem with associative studies.    Only properly constructed trials can have any evidential leverage.

Edited by john.r.davies
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Roger,

......and still they ignore 'the old wives tale'  D3.

That's because there is no money in it to grease the role of government.

The Wellcome-Gates-Accelerator excludes funding of Vitamin D.

Alan

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13 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

You don't mean that the VitD is a mere association, do you, Roger?    Sugar pills would do as well, if the right colour?

This is the problem with associative studies.    Only properly constructed trials can have any evidential leverage.

Hi John,

I am suggesting that they, the Gov't and researchers, are treating it as an old wives tale.

 

Roger

 

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18 hours ago, barkerwilliams said:

The author is a member of our D3 campaign group. The reference to parachute studies is thanks to Stan who posted it earlier in this thread !

He was limited to 1000 words hence the brevity of style.

Peter

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1 hour ago, john.r.davies said:

You don't mean that the VitD is a mere association, do you, Roger?    Sugar pills would do as well, if the right colour?

This is the problem with associative studies.    Only properly constructed trials can have any evidential leverage.

Show me the trial that smoking is dangerous.

Sir Austin Bradford Hill's criteria eventually nailed the causative role of smoking in lung cancer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_Hill_criteria

When his nine criteria are applied to D3 deficiency/restoration and C-19 they are all met.

Trials take time, meanwhile tens of thousands are dying, even more suffer 'long covid', education is screwed, the  economy is tanking and politicians are losing the battle for hearts and minds. Societal collapse beckons. And all because of a failure by SAGE to recommend a decent dose of D3 costing a few pence per day per person.

Peter

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20 hours ago, Ian Vincent said:

Apparently there is a very recent Canadian study that shows that high doses of D3 (more than 4000 units/d), promotes osteoporosis in women of a certain age. 

Rgds Ian

https://asbmr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jbmr.4152

- paywalled so details not available. eg PTH responses, dietary Ca

note tibia strength not impaired at any dose.

no unsupplemented controls, where we would expect  25(OH) to be ca 40-50 nmol/L and for density and strength to decline.

Doubtless this will be cited by SACN as showing D3 supplements >400 IU pd are dangerous.

Pity that infections and the numerous other D3-related diseases heve never been given the research resources the bone community command.

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3 hours ago, iain said:

Iain, easy:

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/161052136.pdf

(it is a refereed paper (unlike the german edict) presnted here as pre-print because that journal is paywalled.)

Peter

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1 hour ago, iain said:

That’s 3 years ago Peter.....

So what ?

NICE/SACN D3 panel has not yet left the 20C

Peter

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"New Scientist" (24/10 2020)has always been my favourite science review journal and now it's go-to for Covid news.    The latest issue is full of interest, which is bit like saying I'm a turkey, watching the calendar in December.

First, anyone want to be a hero?   Imperial College will start to infect volunteers with Covid in January, not to treat them, but in a dose-finding study.     All our discussions about spread are hampered by having no knowledge of how much virus is needed to start an infection.      We didn't even know how much spit was spread by singing, or playing instruments, until the Royal College of Music (I think) did some tests earlier this year.   We really are in the dark about so much, and this will be another chink of light, but through heroic volunteers agreeing to breath in nebulised virus in increasing doses.   I fear none of them will get even on OBE next year!

And we don't really know if lock-downs, short, long, partial or intense, are any good.   The London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine have a paper out that studies by modelling the effect of "pre-emptive" lockdowns, that are pre-planned, for example every two months for two weeks.      They sugges that business and industry could plan for and survive that better than recative, unplanned lockdowns.     I recall that this strategy was one suggested as early as March, but discounted at the time.

 

We are aghast at having the number of Covid infections in the UK approaching a million with 50,000 deaths not far away.   In India last year, half a million people died from TB, and three and a half million are infected.     The 'track & trace ' effort for TB has been diverted to Covod and there may be nearly 100,000 more deaths from TB there in the next year.    The Collateral damage to the UK population by Covid is great, but nothinglike in other places.

And Covid hasn't mutated, yet!    There has been almost no mutation in the virus, as it spreads around the world.   Good news, as a vaccine that works will work anywhere.   But it may have styed the same becasue there is no pressure for it to change.   No humans are resistant, no drugs oppose it's effect and we have no vaccine.   But once - if! - we acquire those, then we may see new mutations arise, and there are suggesions from the few repeat infections seen that they occur with mutated virus strain. 

Finally, one of the long articles dicusses the risks of Covid.  Many have been vastly exagerrated, for instance, if someone in your home has Covid, then the risk that they will pass it to another is ten times LESS if they are in hospital.    The fear of catchingCovid by going into hospital has been a major cause of collateral deaths, from heart diease and cancer.   The author discusses the "risk budget" concept, but I'll not try to precis that here!

John

Edited by john.r.davies
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The problem with the Imperial viral challenge study is they only test young people. the lowest risk group for seriuos C19. Whether oldies respond to the viral dose the same as 20-30 year olds will remain unknown.

The virus IS mutating. Thats how by RNA sequencing thay can tell that meat-factories spread it at work ( only one variant )  whereas hospital outbreaks  reveal several different  variants, ergo imported not spreading within the hospital.  IIRC Norwich work.

Houston outbreak was  also a new variant but so far no signs of enhanced pathology.

India TB  deaths are tragic especially as there is a cheap and safe non-drug cure. known since 1930s.but since forgotten.

Peter

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18 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

The problem with the Imperial viral challenge study is they only test young people. the lowest risk group for seriuos C19. Whether oldies respond to the viral dose the same as 20-30 year olds will remain unknown.

Peter

IC's study is not one of vaccine effectiveness, nor age related infectiveness, but a dosing finding study, to illuminate epidemiology.     Given the far greater lethality of Covid on the aged, it would be unethical to include us.

And if there is a "non-drug" cure for TB I'm sure that India would love to know about it.   

Edited by john.r.davies
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