stillp Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 I do not trust any AI-derived prognostications. AI is a black box in which the reasons for the output are entirely unknowable. Independent verification is essential. OK it may win at "Go" and chess - and we can verify that- but trusting AI when we have no way of verifying its output is dodgy. In the context of viruses AI might provide clues as to what to look for, but not a definitive answer. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 BBC News South, 6:30 and 10:30 pm tonight should carry an interview with Prof Singhal on using D3 in Weston-super-Mare hospital. Prof Singhal is a clinical endocrinologist and President of BAPIO ( Brit Assoc Physicians of Indian Origin) who wrote to all members last April alerting them to risk of deficiency of D3 re C-19. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lebro Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 I will watch with interest. Bob. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 BBC News South, 6:30 and 10:30 pm tonight should carry an interview with Prof Singhal on using D3 in Weston-super-Mare hospital. Prof Singhal is a clinical endocrinologist and President of BAPIO ( Brit Assoc Physicians of Indian Origin) who wrote to all members last April alerting them to risk of deficiency of D3 re C-19. Peter ERROR: BBC 1 Points West 10:30 pm should also be on i=player for 24 hrs apologies for misinfo Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000sfnt/points-west-evening-news-19022021 6:00 Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lebro Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 Between 6 minutes in & 9 minutes  Very good. Bob Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 D3 gets a paragraph in The Staggers https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-nhs-is-still-in-desperate-need-of-reform/amp Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 22, 2021 Report Share Posted February 22, 2021 The human sacrifice demanded by a protocol http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-after-barcelona-more.html Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted February 27, 2021 Report Share Posted February 27, 2021 Editorial in a BMJ journal. Chapter and verse on D3 for C-19 and other infections. Covers loading doses to get serum level up fast. The final sentenc https://rmdopen.bmj.com/content/6/3/e001454 Pls fwd the link to your MP, MS. MSP etc. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grahamgl Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 Gentlemen, The following is an extract from today’s Guardian on line. The idea that vitamin D supplements can reduce susceptibility to, and the severity of, Covid-19 is seductive – it offers a simple, elegant solution to a very complex and lethal problem. But analyses encompassing large European datasets suggest the enthusiasm for the sunshine vitamin may be misplaced. Two still to be peer-reviewed papers looked at the link between vitamin D levels and Covid-19 and both reached the same conclusion: evidence for a direct link between vitamin D deficiency and Covid outcomes is lacking. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Motorsport Mickey Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) Just as well I'm taking it for general well being then, any Covid-19 protection will be purely co incidental...but beneficial. I've reached the stage of non caring regarding general scientific or medical reports that show no advantage, whatever will be will be. I trust the peer reviews of these large data sets have adequate experience in D3 application for them to give respectability to the results one way or another. In the meantime I'm taking an affordable, safe (at 4000 iu per day) supplement which will help general physiological levels until when/if the medical profession in general can be definitive, maybe when large scale RCT show it one way or the other. Mick Richards Edited March 9, 2021 by Motorsport Mickey Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SuzanneH Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 +1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 The BMJ editorial parrots NICE: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n544 -now read the Rapid Responses. ==== Canadian clinicians are forthright: https://www.bitchute.com/video/nQgq0BxXfZ4f/ === Mick is right, it's what I do and all my family. ( dose for yougnsters is lower). === Graham, there are many badly designed D3 studies, not only for C-19. If the studies do not embrace physiological serum 25(OH)D (100-150 nmol/L) or supplements that will attain that ( typ 4000 IU pd, more for obese) they are cr*p.  Most european nations like UK have low mean serum 25(OH)D, half to one third physiological === Dr David Grimes' latest: http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/03/covid-19-vitamin-d-haredi-bame-obese.html note mention of good D3 needed to get vaccine to work. look at his Asian pts serum 25(OH)D ditribution: only 4 out of 1754 had physiological level he worked in Blackburn, Lancs. no wonder he is angry. Peter Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 A warning. D3 deficinecy can be silent and unrecognised by GPs, who are told by NICE not to measure pts 25(OH)D so by and large do not accumulate expertise. A 35 year old family member, female, slim, good mixed diet with some fish, told me her hair was coming out in clumps. GP advised vitE. I pointed her to City Assays, Birmingham to get her serum 25(OH)D tested ( postal service, ca £28). Result: badly deficient 12 nmol/L. Close call, too close for comfort. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 9, 2021 Report Share Posted March 9, 2021 Grauniad piece, will go through the referenced studies if you want https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/09/vitamin-d-supplements-may-offer-no-covid-benefits-data-suggests but after a year of D3 posts most of you know enough to see the flaws in the studies and that article. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said: Grauniad piece, will go through the referenced studies if you want https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/09/vitamin-d-supplements-may-offer-no-covid-benefits-data-suggests but after a year of D3 posts most of you know enough to see the flaws in the studies and that article. Peter No doubt you have read the papers, Peter, but after a year of D3 posts, I recognise evangelism, and the unwarranted discounting of contrary evidence.  If you won't discuss them, then I will. First, they are both 'pre-prints' published before peer review and publication in a journal. Today, this is a common practice and not a criticism itself of the publication. Bakaloudi & Chourdakis, "Prevalence of vitamin D is not associated with the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. A judicial update of the existing evidence", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.04.21252885v1.full.pdf  This is what is called a 'metastudy' searching previous reports and figures and putting them together.  Again, a respectable method, from a respectable university and one of its professors.   They looked at the levels of VitD in the people of European countries and the incidence of Covid infection and mortality there.   They found that in Finland the VItD deficiancey rate was 6%, while that in Turkey it was 75%, and that there was no correllation between that and Covid infection, recovery or death. Butler-Laporte, Nakanishi,Mooser et al, Vitamin D and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the COVID-19 Host Genetics: A Mendelian randomization study, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190975v5.full.pdf  is an even more effective discounting of the VitD myth, from authors at leading universities in Canada, Japan, Isreal, Italy and the UK.  "Mendelian randomisation" sounds like genetic handwaving, but is again a respected and effective technique that allows analysis of the effect of a specific variable in genetics and epidemiology, and has the same status as a randomised controlled trial.  So, just what we need to tell if VitD is a wonder drug, or else just one incidental factor.   And it included nearly half a million subjects, mostly from the UK BioBank, 14,000 Covid victims and 1.2 million Covid-free from other countries.  This was not the small study so often assocated with VitD success.  Their main finding is worth quoting, "increased 25OHD levels by one standard deviation on the logarithmic scale had no significant association with COVID-19 susceptibility" They concluded that, "vitamin D supplementation as a means of protecting against worsened COVID-19 outcomes is not supported by genetic evidence. Other therapeutic or preventative  avenues should be given higher priority for COVID-19 randomized controlled trials." (My underline) This paper is worth reading if only for the discussion on the "confounding and reverse causation bias" that has influenced so much on VitD and Covid. Over to you, Peter. Edited March 10, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
barkerwilliams Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) I have a mirror for the refusal to D3 test. A Labrador of ours developed some odd symptoms, we put it out on the internet dog forums and within 10 minutes two American dog owners came back to us with a probable diagnosis of Lyme Disease and advised to get a particular type of test for Lyme. So off we went to the vets who examined the dog said they didn't know what the problem was and we then suggested Lyme. The vet scoffed said we don't have Lyme around here and we don't test for it. We said if you don't test for it how do you know whether it is around here? Catch 22. In the end the dog had the treatment he would have had following a positive Lyme test and after a long period he recovered. Incidentally deer tics spread Lyme, deer wander everywhere there is woodland and there are not many areas in the UK without Lyme. Alan  Edited March 10, 2021 by barkerwilliams grammar Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 3 hours ago, john.r.davies said: No doubt you have read the papers, Peter, but after a year of D3 posts, I recognise evangelism, and the unwarranted discounting of contrary evidence.  If you won't discuss them, then I will. First, they are both 'pre-prints' published before peer review and publication in a journal. Today, this is a common practice and not a criticism itself of the publication. Bakaloudi & Chourdakis, "Prevalence of vitamin D is not associated with the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. A judicial update of the existing evidence", https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.04.21252885v1.full.pdf  This is what is called a 'metastudy' searching previous reports and figures and putting them together.  Again, a respectable method, from a respectable university and one of its professors.   They looked at the levels of VitD in the people of European countries and the incidence of Covid infection and mortality there.   They found that in Finland the VItD deficiancey rate was 6%, while that in Turkey it was 75%, and that there was no correllation between that and Covid infection, recovery or death. Butler-Laporte, Nakanishi,Mooser et al, Vitamin D and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the COVID-19 Host Genetics: A Mendelian randomization study, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190975v5.full.pdf  is an even more effective discounting of the VitD myth, from authors at leading universities in Canada, Japan, Isreal, Italy and the UK.  "Mendelian randomisation" sounds like genetic handwaving, but is again a respected and effective technique that allows analysis of the effect of a specific variable in genetics and epidemiology, and has the same status as a randomised controlled trial.  So, just what we need to tell if VitD is a wonder drug, or else just one incidental factor.   And it included nearly half a million subjects, mostly from the UK BioBank, 14,000 Covid victims and 1.2 million Covid-free from other countries.  This was not the small study so often assocated with VitD success.  Their main finding is worth quoting, "increased 25OHD levels by one standard deviation on the logarithmic scale had no significant association with COVID-19 susceptibility" They concluded that, "vitamin D supplementation as a means of protecting against worsened COVID-19 outcomes is not supported by genetic evidence. Other therapeutic or preventative  avenues should be given higher priority for COVID-19 randomized controlled trials." (My underline) This paper is worth reading if only for the discussion on the "confounding and reverse causation bias" that has influenced so much on VitD and Covid. Over to you, Peter. John, You have followed this thread so you know what is wrong with those papers. None of the populations studied had physiological 100-150 nmol/L D3 levels. So none of the genetic variants and polymorphs of protiens inovlved in D3 signalling would work correctly as evolution had detemined, including the wild type. In other words, the wild type control is not working prperly, so no difference from mutants will be apparent. Their definitions of "deficiency" have been plucked out fo the air ( ie bone) , and do not accord with known need for 100-150 nmol/L to optimise immune defences -see Open Letter and https://rmdopen.bmj.com/content/6/3/e001454 The Biobank study has now been sidelined - they used 25(OH)D data that were up to 10 years old, hardly relevant to C-19 in 2020. We shall have to disagree on D3 for C-19. I take a much wider embrace of the science than you. But I doubt you will dismiss the abundance of research -ca 5000 papers pa- describing the huuge range of actions of D3. Its receptors bind to DNA in every cell nucleus in our body, demethylate DNA at 20,000 sites per nucleus and regulate the expression of at least 450 genes, Asa result D3 is implicated in a host of diseases as collated by  https://vitamindwiki.com/ When we examine the evolution of the vitamin D receptor we find that its first function 500 million years ago was in regulation of innate immunity. It is highly unlikely that 500m years of evolution has failed in 2020. Peter     Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 3 hours ago, barkerwilliams said: I have a mirror for the refusal to D3 test. A Labrador of ours developed some odd symptoms, we put it out on the internet dog forums and within 10 minutes two American dog owners came back to us with a probable diagnosis of Lyme Disease and advised to get a particular type of test for Lyme. So off we went to the vets who examined the dog said they didn't know what the problem was and we then suggested Lyme. The vet scoffed said we don't have Lyme around here and we don't test for it. We said if you don't test for it how do you know whether it is around here? Catch 22. In the end the dog had the treatment he would have had following a positive Lyme test and after a long period he recovered. Incidentally deer tics spread Lyme, deer wander everywhere there is woodland and there are not many areas in the UK without Lyme. Alan  It is a scary disease, a middle-aged neighbour got it in Scotland15 years ago and has not recovered, despite three visits ot USA for treatment. No deer here , yet, but lots of sheep. I carry small tick-tweezers in wallet. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) Bit a sidepath from the gnreral 'roadmap' of this thread, but at the same time a parallel.  I thought to find a map of Lyme disease in the UK, and here it is, from a BJGP paper on LD and Bell's Palsy (https://bjgp.org/content/67/658/e329) And despite the almost complete freedom of Wales from LD, there is a low incidence warm-spot near Hereford. The parallel is that the 'net, even local to the UK, is full of scare stories about the prevalence of LD, offering maps lke this, under headlines like "UK People are at Risk of Lyme Disease!": Edited March 10, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
barkerwilliams Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 John, Yes you are absolutely correct sheep, deer, wild boar etc instinctively know and respect county boundaries and never, ever cross them, not once in recorded history and the medical profession would never accept that the possibly of wild animal migration might happen without double blind trials, and of course the well known track-and-trace scheme for muntjac. Seems to be a theme of ostrich medical policies here. Alan  Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 I wonder what percentage of my sheep-farmer neighours are sero+ve ..... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SuzanneH Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 11 hours ago, barkerwilliams said: John, Yes you are absolutely correct sheep, deer, wild boar etc instinctively know and respect county boundaries and never, ever cross them, not once in recorded history and the medical profession would never accept that the possibly of wild animal migration might happen without double blind trials, and of course the well known track-and-trace scheme for muntjac. Seems to be a theme of ostrich medical policies here. Alan  Brilliant. NB Dead dear are often seen on the roadside and centre reservations on roads within the M25 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, barkerwilliams said: John, Yes you are absolutely correct sheep, deer, wild boar etc instinctively know and respect county boundaries and never, ever cross them, not once in recorded history and the medical profession would never accept that the possibly of wild animal migration might happen without double blind trials, and of course the well known track-and-trace scheme for muntjac. Seems to be a theme of ostrich medical policies here. Alan  UK species of deer don't 'migrate' like polar caribou or reindeer do.  You may have heard the term "hefted", used by shepherds who know that their sheep are highly territorial and will wander only within tight boundaries.  Wild deer are also territorial and while doe may move between stags' locations, they are confined by him once taken in. You produce opinuion, I produce fact.  Try producing evidence instead.  Edited March 11, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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