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10 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

On Nov 6 the elderly in nursing homes In Andalucia were given oral calcifediol ( 25(OH)D3 which acts quicker than oral D3) Dosage not given. Here is a plot of deaths,  updated to today

image.png.44ef09d812c4848d60fec0574e69808f.png

No vaccinations, no change to isolation. This is D3 in action, saving lives.

Peter

What caused the drop 1 May to ! Sep Pete? Looks steeper than 1 Enero.

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11 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

On Nov 6 the elderly in nursing homes In Andalucia were given oral calcifediol ( 25(OH)D3 which acts quicker than oral D3) Dosage not given. Here is a plot of deaths,  updated to today

image.png.44ef09d812c4848d60fec0574e69808f.png

No vaccinations, no change to isolation. This is D3 in action, saving lives.

Peter

Peter,

You should know better than to publish data with no comparison.   And no dates!  WHEN was D3 given to this population? What may we compare it with?

I can only find a chart of total deaths in Spain, and only until  September, and it exactly parallels your chart for cases, with less detahs as would be expected for a vulnerable population.     Are you saying that the fall since Xmas is due to VitD?   Show us the evidence!

John

image.png.286b1ad9d7ad5603735281552a8afbae.png

Edited by john.r.davies
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From the BBC News web page:

"Some researchers have suggested that vitamin D deficiency might be linked with poorer outcomes if someone catches coronavirus. But other underlying risk factors, such as heart disease, are common in these patients too, making it hard to draw conclusions.

Prof Jon Rhodes, Emeritus Professor of Medicine at the University of Liverpool, says vitamin D has anti-inflammatory effects, and some research suggests it may dampen down the body's immune response to viruses.

This could be relevant in very ill coronavirus patients, where severe lung damage can result from an inflammatory state in response to the virus, he says, although much more research is needed."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52371688

Pete

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The summer dips are found in most european antions and are due to a rise in 25(OH)D from incidental sunlight.

Epidemiloist try yo blame it upon more tiem outdoors and sunlight killnig the virus otudoors.

Discussed here:

http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/covid-19-vitamin-d-at-end-of-2020.html

Two actions of D3 are in play: better innate defnces do less severe C-19, and less virus shedding by infecteds so less transmission.

Peter

 

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5 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Peter,

You should know better than to publish data with no comparison.   And no dates!  WHEN was D3 given to this population? What may we comparhe it with?

I can only find a chart of total deaths in Spain, and only until  September, and it exactly parallels your chart for cases, with less detahs as would be expected for a vulnerable population.     Are you saying that the fall since Xmas is due to VitD?   Show us the evidence!

John

g

Andalucia nursing home residents were dosed with calcifediol from 6 Nov , dosage not released.http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/presidencia/portavoz/salud/155979/ConsejeriaSaludFamilias/ConsejoGobierno/Covid/mayores/vitaminaD/calcifediol

All inof is in Spanish and ther is no random testing data for comparison. We know the elderly are at high risk of death and nursinh home residents especially so because of infected staff. So Andalucia-wide deaths are probably heavily influenced by this cohort and calcifidiol has worked as anticipated. There are no data on the age-distribution of deaths either.

http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/institutodeestadisticaycartografia/salud/COVID19.html

Peter

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"All inof is in Spanish"

No probs, Peter!   Go to Google translate, paste the foreign language website URL in the box and label it with the appropriate language (Spanish).

In the second make sure it says English and click on the 'go to' symbol (square with an arrow out of it)     The webpage will be displayed in English.  This works for text.   It does not for diagram labels and other graphics text.   EG

"COVID-19 report in Andalusia

Page prepared by the Ministry of Health and Families in collaboration with the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia, with the aim of making information about the evolution and behavior of COVID-19 in the autonomous community accessible, visually and in a way that these data can be reusable by users.

The Confirmed PDIA data (Active Infection Diagnostic Tests) includes all cases of COVID-19 with active infection, confirmed by PCR technique or the latest generation rapid antigenic tests, as established by the strategy for early detection, surveillance and control of COVID-19 of the Ministry of Health . The Totals data includes all cases of COVID-19 with a positive result in a diagnostic test (PDIA or antibody test).

The data is updated daily from Monday to Friday. Every Monday the information corresponding to the previous weekend is updated. The ongoing process of debugging and consolidation can lead to minor discrepancies."

The top graph on that page shows the same time interval, with lines for symptoms, diagnoses, hospitalisation and deaths for the whole population.      Sad to say, it shows a similar first and second wave peak, your graph being the same red line with an expanded vertical axis.      Because deaths are so much fewer , it is difficult to see on the four line chart, but deaths typically follow two weeks behind hospitalisation, which this chart seems to follow, with no evidence of any effect from VitD on the care home residents.   Sorry, Peter, unproven, nul result.       And even sadder, it shows a third wave right behind the second (post Xmas?) that no doubt will carry off even more.

I'm more than willing to accept that VitD has a role, but like dexamethazone it is not a magic bullet.   The steroid is helpful in those seriously ill with lung problems - it does not benefit the mildly sick or prevent infection.   A limited and  targeted role for VitD I can see - all powerful panacea, no.

John

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3 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Just watched the parliamentary debate. The response from the government was completely predictable, heads well and truly buried in the sand.

Mick

In the sand...........I thought they were up their ars*s.   How can they allow people to die for such a simple medication. Vested interested shouting out loud.

 

Roger

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After Davis' brilliant exposition its up to journalists to investigate. The minister was floundering, they will see that.

And it wont be lost on "captains of industry" eg airlines who will see a new (to them) exit strategy.

This afternoon the D3 cat is well out of the bag.  TG

Peter

 

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3 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful.

Mick

All gone shopping for D3 before supplies run out ?

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46 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

"All inof is in Spanish"

No probs, Peter!   Go to Google translate, paste the foreign language website URL in the box and label it with the appropriate language (Spanish).

In the second make sure it says English and click on the 'go to' symbol (square with an arrow out of it)     The webpage will be displayed in English.  This works for text.   It does not for diagram labels and other graphics text.   EG

"COVID-19 report in Andalusia

Page prepared by the Ministry of Health and Families in collaboration with the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia, with the aim of making information about the evolution and behavior of COVID-19 in the autonomous community accessible, visually and in a way that these data can be reusable by users.

The Confirmed PDIA data (Active Infection Diagnostic Tests) includes all cases of COVID-19 with active infection, confirmed by PCR technique or the latest generation rapid antigenic tests, as established by the strategy for early detection, surveillance and control of COVID-19 of the Ministry of Health . The Totals data includes all cases of COVID-19 with a positive result in a diagnostic test (PDIA or antibody test).

The data is updated daily from Monday to Friday. Every Monday the information corresponding to the previous weekend is updated. The ongoing process of debugging and consolidation can lead to minor discrepancies."

The top graph on that page shows the same time interval, with lines for symptoms, diagnoses, hospitalisation and deaths for the whole population.      Sad to say, it shows a similar first and second wave peak, your graph being the same red line with an expanded vertical axis.      Because deaths are so much fewer , it is difficult to see on the four line chart, but deaths typically follow two weeks behind hospitalisation, which this chart seems to follow, with no evidence of any effect from VitD on the care home residents.   Sorry, Peter, unproven, nul result.       And even sadder, it shows a third wave right behind the second (post Xmas?) that no doubt will carry off even more.

I'm more than willing to accept that VitD has a role, but like dexamethazone it is not a magic bullet.   The steroid is helpful in those seriously ill with lung problems - it does not benefit the mildly sick or prevent infection.   A limited and  targeted role for VitD I can see - all powerful panacea, no.

John

the chart is  interactive; remove all ticks except fallicidos and deaths plumetting is obvious.

D3 is fundamental: defcieincy is causal, restoring physiology is defensive against all variants. Andalucia study is bassed upon decades of science, it wont turn out to be a flash in the pan. You do recall the Cordoba hospital stdy with calcifidiiol- a25 fold  reduction in pts needing ICU. Imagine what that would do to save the NHS. But NICE say no: they dismissed the Cordoba trial as nto being big enough, then MIT mathematicians showed the trial has a mere 1 in 1 million chance of being a fluke.

NICE, SACN, PHE are murderous in their ignorance.

Peter

 

Peter

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17 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful.

Mick

I counted four people   David Davies, The Speaker, The minister and the chap form NI

 

Roger

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30 minutes ago, Mick Forey said:

Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful.

Mick

At least he David Davies only had to give way  once, when and if the D3 debate is proven to be true won’t it be wonderful if they play back a recording and the Health Ministers reply.

I will wait with baited breath for this to happen. Roll on that day.

 

 

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Well there's not a word about it on the BBC  news website this evening (no surprise there then). Their lead story on parliament is about an MP who sounded like a dalek on a zoom meeting......    Priorities anyone?

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2 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

the chart is  interactive; remove all ticks except fallicidos and deaths plumetting is obvious.

Indeed. You can also go around other regions of Spain. Granada, Cadiz, Seville, you name it. When you've un-ticked the infections and the scale readjusts, they all show the same drop in deaths in November/December. The drop in deaths in Andalucia may be co-incident with supplementation in nursing homes, but it's also when their nationwide lockdown happened. So, unless the whole nation was getting vitamin D, I'm afraid my conclusion is that it was lockdown that caused the drop shown on the graph.

Peter, you know I'm an advocate of vitamin D, but in this case, I don't think that's where the evidence points. If I've missed something, I'd be very happy for you or anyone to point it out.

Cheers, Richard

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It puzzles me why the debate was permitted. The petition did not reach anywhere near the 10,000 needed

And the minister had hardly aleg to stand on in reply to DD. As an own goal against the minister it could easily have been avoided by simply not organising the debate.

So is it adeliberate ploy by politicians to pressurise or divide PHE.NICE.SACN ? 

The Opposition have been alerted to the ministerial shambling; perhaps the All-party Covid Group will now take up the cudgels?

Peter

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