little jim Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said: On Nov 6 the elderly in nursing homes In Andalucia were given oral calcifediol ( 25(OH)D3 which acts quicker than oral D3) Dosage not given. Here is a plot of deaths, updated to today No vaccinations, no change to isolation. This is D3 in action, saving lives. Peter What caused the drop 1 May to ! Sep Pete? Looks steeper than 1 Enero. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
little jim Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) error Edited January 14, 2021 by little jim Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said: On Nov 6 the elderly in nursing homes In Andalucia were given oral calcifediol ( 25(OH)D3 which acts quicker than oral D3) Dosage not given. Here is a plot of deaths, updated to today No vaccinations, no change to isolation. This is D3 in action, saving lives. Peter Peter, You should know better than to publish data with no comparison. And no dates! WHEN was D3 given to this population? What may we compare it with? I can only find a chart of total deaths in Spain, and only until September, and it exactly parallels your chart for cases, with less detahs as would be expected for a vulnerable population. Are you saying that the fall since Xmas is due to VitD? Show us the evidence! John Edited January 14, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stillp Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 From the BBC News web page: "Some researchers have suggested that vitamin D deficiency might be linked with poorer outcomes if someone catches coronavirus. But other underlying risk factors, such as heart disease, are common in these patients too, making it hard to draw conclusions. Prof Jon Rhodes, Emeritus Professor of Medicine at the University of Liverpool, says vitamin D has anti-inflammatory effects, and some research suggests it may dampen down the body's immune response to viruses. This could be relevant in very ill coronavirus patients, where severe lung damage can result from an inflammatory state in response to the virus, he says, although much more research is needed." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52371688 Pete Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The summer dips are found in most european antions and are due to a rise in 25(OH)D from incidental sunlight. Epidemiloist try yo blame it upon more tiem outdoors and sunlight killnig the virus otudoors. Discussed here: http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/covid-19-vitamin-d-at-end-of-2020.html Two actions of D3 are in play: better innate defnces do less severe C-19, and less virus shedding by infecteds so less transmission. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 hours ago, john.r.davies said: Peter, You should know better than to publish data with no comparison. And no dates! WHEN was D3 given to this population? What may we comparhe it with? I can only find a chart of total deaths in Spain, and only until September, and it exactly parallels your chart for cases, with less detahs as would be expected for a vulnerable population. Are you saying that the fall since Xmas is due to VitD? Show us the evidence! John g Andalucia nursing home residents were dosed with calcifediol from 6 Nov , dosage not released.http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/presidencia/portavoz/salud/155979/ConsejeriaSaludFamilias/ConsejoGobierno/Covid/mayores/vitaminaD/calcifediol All inof is in Spanish and ther is no random testing data for comparison. We know the elderly are at high risk of death and nursinh home residents especially so because of infected staff. So Andalucia-wide deaths are probably heavily influenced by this cohort and calcifidiol has worked as anticipated. There are no data on the age-distribution of deaths either. http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/institutodeestadisticaycartografia/salud/COVID19.html Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 1 Edited January 14, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 2 Edited January 14, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 3 Edited January 14, 2021 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 "All inof is in Spanish" No probs, Peter! Go to Google translate, paste the foreign language website URL in the box and label it with the appropriate language (Spanish). In the second make sure it says English and click on the 'go to' symbol (square with an arrow out of it) The webpage will be displayed in English. This works for text. It does not for diagram labels and other graphics text. EG "COVID-19 report in Andalusia Page prepared by the Ministry of Health and Families in collaboration with the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia, with the aim of making information about the evolution and behavior of COVID-19 in the autonomous community accessible, visually and in a way that these data can be reusable by users. The Confirmed PDIA data (Active Infection Diagnostic Tests) includes all cases of COVID-19 with active infection, confirmed by PCR technique or the latest generation rapid antigenic tests, as established by the strategy for early detection, surveillance and control of COVID-19 of the Ministry of Health . The Totals data includes all cases of COVID-19 with a positive result in a diagnostic test (PDIA or antibody test). The data is updated daily from Monday to Friday. Every Monday the information corresponding to the previous weekend is updated. The ongoing process of debugging and consolidation can lead to minor discrepancies." The top graph on that page shows the same time interval, with lines for symptoms, diagnoses, hospitalisation and deaths for the whole population. Sad to say, it shows a similar first and second wave peak, your graph being the same red line with an expanded vertical axis. Because deaths are so much fewer , it is difficult to see on the four line chart, but deaths typically follow two weeks behind hospitalisation, which this chart seems to follow, with no evidence of any effect from VitD on the care home residents. Sorry, Peter, unproven, nul result. And even sadder, it shows a third wave right behind the second (post Xmas?) that no doubt will carry off even more. I'm more than willing to accept that VitD has a role, but like dexamethazone it is not a magic bullet. The steroid is helpful in those seriously ill with lung problems - it does not benefit the mildly sick or prevent infection. A limited and targeted role for VitD I can see - all powerful panacea, no. John Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Quadruple post as wasn't loading properly. No delete button. Mods please edit? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) I think I got it first time. Roger Edited January 14, 2021 by RogerH Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 It just sat on my screen and refused to say that it was uploaded. I'd delete the extras but there's no 'delete' button. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lebro Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 You can edit them down to a single character, then save Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mick Forey Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just watched the parliamentary debate. The response from the government was completely predictable, heads well and truly buried in the sand. Mick Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mick Forey said: Just watched the parliamentary debate. The response from the government was completely predictable, heads well and truly buried in the sand. Mick In the sand...........I thought they were up their ars*s. How can they allow people to die for such a simple medication. Vested interested shouting out loud. Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mick Forey Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful. Mick Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 After Davis' brilliant exposition its up to journalists to investigate. The minister was floundering, they will see that. And it wont be lost on "captains of industry" eg airlines who will see a new (to them) exit strategy. This afternoon the D3 cat is well out of the bag. TG Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mick Forey said: Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful. Mick All gone shopping for D3 before supplies run out ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 46 minutes ago, john.r.davies said: "All inof is in Spanish" No probs, Peter! Go to Google translate, paste the foreign language website URL in the box and label it with the appropriate language (Spanish). In the second make sure it says English and click on the 'go to' symbol (square with an arrow out of it) The webpage will be displayed in English. This works for text. It does not for diagram labels and other graphics text. EG "COVID-19 report in Andalusia Page prepared by the Ministry of Health and Families in collaboration with the Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia, with the aim of making information about the evolution and behavior of COVID-19 in the autonomous community accessible, visually and in a way that these data can be reusable by users. The Confirmed PDIA data (Active Infection Diagnostic Tests) includes all cases of COVID-19 with active infection, confirmed by PCR technique or the latest generation rapid antigenic tests, as established by the strategy for early detection, surveillance and control of COVID-19 of the Ministry of Health . The Totals data includes all cases of COVID-19 with a positive result in a diagnostic test (PDIA or antibody test). The data is updated daily from Monday to Friday. Every Monday the information corresponding to the previous weekend is updated. The ongoing process of debugging and consolidation can lead to minor discrepancies." The top graph on that page shows the same time interval, with lines for symptoms, diagnoses, hospitalisation and deaths for the whole population. Sad to say, it shows a similar first and second wave peak, your graph being the same red line with an expanded vertical axis. Because deaths are so much fewer , it is difficult to see on the four line chart, but deaths typically follow two weeks behind hospitalisation, which this chart seems to follow, with no evidence of any effect from VitD on the care home residents. Sorry, Peter, unproven, nul result. And even sadder, it shows a third wave right behind the second (post Xmas?) that no doubt will carry off even more. I'm more than willing to accept that VitD has a role, but like dexamethazone it is not a magic bullet. The steroid is helpful in those seriously ill with lung problems - it does not benefit the mildly sick or prevent infection. A limited and targeted role for VitD I can see - all powerful panacea, no. John the chart is interactive; remove all ticks except fallicidos and deaths plumetting is obvious. D3 is fundamental: defcieincy is causal, restoring physiology is defensive against all variants. Andalucia study is bassed upon decades of science, it wont turn out to be a flash in the pan. You do recall the Cordoba hospital stdy with calcifidiiol- a25 fold reduction in pts needing ICU. Imagine what that would do to save the NHS. But NICE say no: they dismissed the Cordoba trial as nto being big enough, then MIT mathematicians showed the trial has a mere 1 in 1 million chance of being a fluke. NICE, SACN, PHE are murderous in their ignorance. Peter Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RogerH Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Mick Forey said: Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful. Mick I counted four people David Davies, The Speaker, The minister and the chap form NI Roger Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SuzanneH Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, Mick Forey said: Roger, did you spot your MP in the chamber? Mine was missing, along with 99% of MPs. Disgraceful. Mick At least he David Davies only had to give way once, when and if the D3 debate is proven to be true won’t it be wonderful if they play back a recording and the Health Ministers reply. I will wait with baited breath for this to happen. Roll on that day. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
RobH Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Well there's not a word about it on the BBC news website this evening (no surprise there then). Their lead story on parliament is about an MP who sounded like a dalek on a zoom meeting...... Priorities anyone? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Spit_2.5PI Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said: the chart is interactive; remove all ticks except fallicidos and deaths plumetting is obvious. Indeed. You can also go around other regions of Spain. Granada, Cadiz, Seville, you name it. When you've un-ticked the infections and the scale readjusts, they all show the same drop in deaths in November/December. The drop in deaths in Andalucia may be co-incident with supplementation in nursing homes, but it's also when their nationwide lockdown happened. So, unless the whole nation was getting vitamin D, I'm afraid my conclusion is that it was lockdown that caused the drop shown on the graph. Peter, you know I'm an advocate of vitamin D, but in this case, I don't think that's where the evidence points. If I've missed something, I'd be very happy for you or anyone to point it out. Cheers, Richard Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 It puzzles me why the debate was permitted. The petition did not reach anywhere near the 10,000 needed And the minister had hardly aleg to stand on in reply to DD. As an own goal against the minister it could easily have been avoided by simply not organising the debate. So is it adeliberate ploy by politicians to pressurise or divide PHE.NICE.SACN ? The Opposition have been alerted to the ministerial shambling; perhaps the All-party Covid Group will now take up the cudgels? Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.