CORONAVIRUS

[john.r.davies]

The whole page is here, Suzanne: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vitamin-d-for-vulnerable-groups/vitamin-d-and-clinically-extremely-vulnerable-cev-guidance

But I realy hope that ther is no one here who qualifies for the free hand out: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19#cev

John

[Peter Cobbold]

That advice is for a mere 400 IU pd and only for bone and muscle health. NICE do not accept there is any evidence for D3 being of utility against C-19.  But masses of studies show that reducing C-19 severity and infectiuoness needs 5 to 10-fold more: 2000 to 4000 IU pd.  Why is this? In our recent 20,000 year evolution as humans moved nort out of Africa lack of D3 lead not onlt to rickets but to narrowing of the femal pelvic canal resulting in death of mother and neo-nate. This reuslted in a very strong  evolutionary selective pressure means that nowadays our bones repsond to lower D3 than any other tissue. 400 is not enough to optimise immunity.

I am assembling data form Andalucia showing a steep plunge in nursing home deaths following use of calcifidiol in all residnets from 6 Nov. Cacifediol is 25(OH)D3. It raises serum 25(OH)D fast, without the ca  2 month delay upn starting D3. Will post here when complete. 

Peter

 

[Spit_2.5PI]

Is that data from the link posted on Dr. Grimes' blog Peter? If you look around other regions of Spain on the clever graph half way down the page it shows similar falls in deaths elsewhere. Unless there's more data which I haven't seen then I'm not convinced that, in this case, the reduction in hospitalisation & fatalities is due to vitamin D. The common factor I would say seems to be the Spanish lock-down announced at the end of October.

Cheers, Richard

[john.r.davies]

I hear the News today, Oh Boy!    They are trumpeting about the "massive vaccination centres" that will open this coming week.

The Lancaster and Morecambe vaccination centres, organised by the local medical practices, have been operating for TWO WEEKS, and 40% of all the most vulnerable people in the area have been vaccinated already.     I was helping at one of these yesterday and we were already getting down to younger age groups and NHS community staff.    More would have been done, sooner, but some arranged deliveries of vaccine have failed, or else were in much smaller quantities than promised,

This demonstrates the power of local enterprise, in the face of an increasingly centralised control-freak Government.

 

More encouraging was a conversation with Daughter, a consultant physician at a major hospital.     She is not an immunologist, but knows several and their view of the delay in giving the second dose of vaccine is that this will be a 'good thing'.      The Pfizer trial was designed to get a quick result, so the interval between the doses was the minimum that could work.   Pfizer cannot say that a longer delay is good, or bad, they have no data, but it was the view of immunologist friends, based on experience with other vaccines, that a longer delay will produce a better and more long lasting response.   This is not just hearsay - an immunologist on Radio 4 said that an interval as long as a year might be appropriate - again, supposition, no data, but an educated opinion!

JOhn

Edited January 10, 2021 by john.r.davies

[RogerH]

7 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

 

More encouraging was a conversation with Daughter, a consultant physician at a major hospital.     She is not an immunologist, but knows several and their view of the delay in giving the second dose of vaccine is that this will be a 'good thing'.      The Pfizer trial was designed to get a quick result, so the interval between the doses was the minimum that could work.   Pfizer cannot say that a longer delay is good, or bad, they have no data, but it was the view of immunologist friends, based on experience with other vaccines, that a longer delay will produce a better and more long lasting response.   This is not just hearsay - an immunologist on Radio 4 said that an interval as long as a year might be appropriate - again, supposition, no data, but an educated opinion!

JOhn

Hi John,

all that is very good news - certainly for Lancaster and that region.

However if an immunologist having no data or research or other such information can make a best guess that a longer delay is quite OK, why can't NICE or SAGE or any health authority make the same best guess regarding the Hormone VitD3 with all its substantiating evidence.  Even if the guess is wrong there will be no danger of over dose up to 4000IU/Day and the cost will be pennies (assuming the patient can take D3)

 

Dual standards comes to mind or worse - vested interest.

 

Roger

[john.r.davies]

But back to the VitD idea.     I also read that the impact of Covid in Africa has been nothing like as bad as feared, especially given the state of many health services.  South Africa is probably best placed to record and manage infections, and they have had 200,000 in a population of 60 million, or 300 per 100,000.    That's the same population as the UK, and we have had 3 MILLION cases.     The SA CMO has no definitive explanation, except to suggest that they have a relatively young population.

VitD levels in South Africans are "sufficient", according to Norval et al, but that is at a level which the enthusiasts above would consider grossly insufficient.     So VitD is NOT the reason why Africans in Africa are escaping the worst of the pandemic.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5086758/#:~:text=The levels of 25(OH,to the cultural preference to

[Mick Forey]

Population distribution by age is dramatically different from Northern Europe and USA. A friend from South Africa described it as a young country and getting old is not an option for many people.

 

[RogerH]

2 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

But back to the VitD idea.     I also read that the impact of Covid in Africa has been nothing like as bad as feared, especially given the state of many health services.  South Africa is probably best placed to record and manage infections, and they have had 200,000 in a population of 60 million, or 300 per 100,000.    That's the same population as the UK, and we have had 3 MILLION cases.     The SA CMO has no definitive explanation, except to suggest that they have a relatively young population.

VitD levels in South Africans are "sufficient", according to Norval et al, but that is at a level which the enthusiasts above would consider grossly insufficient.     So VitD is NOT the reason why Africans in Africa are escaping the worst of the pandemic.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5086758/#:~:text=The levels of 25(OH,to the cultural preference to

Hi John,

As you know the Hormone VitD3 is constantly being used up by any attack on the body that it has an affinity with. 

So the just adequate levels of D3 in their system is not being topped up and expanding by the sunshine but simply just staying a head of the game.

Put those same people in darkness and their D3 would be used immediately and C19 would take over.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2648  -  I read that Dexamethasone has not had extensive trials and results look not too bad but not highly impressive.

But they have grasped the straw - well done. The Hormone VitD3 is (I believe) from the same family but is poo poo'd - yet is has significanly more data but of individual smaller scale.

 Roger

[john.r.davies]

Mick,

A comparison is necessary:  

 

Roger,

Africa is traditionally the "Dark Continent", but in fact gets more sunshine than any other, as its widest part (not, obviously, SA) lies on the Equator.   No one is putting those people in darkness, so their VitD levels should be continuously replenished.       And is VitD "constantly being used up by attacks on the body"?     Like any vitamin it cannot be stored in the body, so needs a constant supply, either in the diet or by synthesis - D must be unique among vitamins as it can be synthesised in the body!   But is it consumed by infection?   It must be consumed by something, or excreted, else it would accumulate, and low levels are associated with infection.    But is the level of VitD lowered BY infection?

[mike ellis]

Useful article in one of today's papers.  Perhaps too much use of the word nutrient.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jan/10/does-vitamin-d-combat-covid

 

[RogerH]

9 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

Mick,

A comparison is necessary:  

 

Roger,

Africa is traditionally the "Dark Continent", but in fact gets more sunshine than any other, as its widest part (not, obviously, SA) lies on the Equator.   No one is putting those people in darkness, so their VitD levels should be continuously replenished.       And is VitD "constantly being used up by attacks on the body"?     Like any vitamin it cannot be stored in the body, so needs a constant supply, either in the diet or by synthesis - D must be unique among vitamins as it can be synthesised in the body!   But is it consumed by infection?   It must be consumed by something, or excreted, else it would accumulate, and low levels are associated with infection.    But is the level of VitD lowered BY infection?

Hi John

The Hormone VitD3 is indeed unique amongst Vitamoins because it is not a vitamin.  It is a Hormone. And you now how powerful Hormones are.

Roger

[RogerH]

21 minutes ago, mike ellis said:

Useful article in one of today's papers.  Perhaps too much use of the word nutrient.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jan/10/does-vitamin-d-combat-covid

 

Hi Mike,

sadly the end of the Guardian piece does not say what the free issue dose level is - Prof. Pete says it is 400IU/day and is a utter waste of time as it will not benefit anybody from C19.

The Gov't has blood on it's hands

 

Roger

[AndyR100]

4 minutes ago, RogerH said:

 

sadly the end of the Guardian piece does not say what the free issue dose level is

i'll know for sure when mine arrives - request completed just over a week ago.

...... Andy

[SuzanneH]

9 minutes ago, RogerH said:

Hi Mike,

sadly the end of the Guardian piece does not say what the free issue dose level is - Prof. Pete says it is 400IU/day and is a utter waste of time as it will not benefit anybody from C19.

The Gov't has blood on it's hands

 

Roger

From the NHS link I posted earlier it looks like it is going to be as follows.

[Peter Cobbold]

58 minutes ago, mike ellis said:

Useful article in one of today's papers.  Perhaps too much use of the word nutrient.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jan/10/does-vitamin-d-combat-covid

 

Last line "We are going to win this battle in the long run".  But I doubt very much UK will be in the lead, the dead hand of NICE is seeing to that.
When D3 does halt the pandemic the fury of the bereaved, damaged, unemployed, businesses biig and small will be vented against politicians ( nothing new there) but also the medical profession at large. Dotors are obeying -publicly if not privately- the dictat of NICE. And NICE is wrong. There will be a humungous aftermath, writs flying in all directions.

The good thing is that the hormone will at long last be reognised as ahving huge impact upon many aspects of health, not only fighting off a virus. Younger generations will, when thye supplement to reach physiological levels, lifelong, be much healthier in many respects: metbolically, cardiovascular, cancers, dementias, and longevity. Long term Covid-19 will be seen to have done us a favour.

Peter

[Peter Cobbold]

50 minutes ago, AndyR100 said:

i'll know for sure when mine arrives - request completed just over a week ago.

...... Andy

400 IU pd  Its only advised for bone and muscle health not for C-19. NICE who adivse NHS claims there is no evidence for role of D3 in combating nC-19.

But a long list of internationl scientists and clincians disagree, and they decalre how many IU they take personally, typically 4000 IU pd  https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html

Peter

[Peter Cobbold]

1 hour ago, john.r.davies said:

Mick,

A comparison is necessary:  

 

Roger,

Africa is traditionally the "Dark Continent", but in fact gets more sunshine than any other, as its widest part (not, obviously, SA) lies on the Equator.   No one is putting those people in darkness, so their VitD levels should be continuously replenished.       And is VitD "constantly being used up by attacks on the body"?     Like any vitamin it cannot be stored in the body, so needs a constant supply, either in the diet or by synthesis - D must be unique among vitamins as it can be synthesised in the body!   But is it consumed by infection?   It must be consumed by something, or excreted, else it would accumulate, and low levels are associated with infection.    But is the level of VitD lowered BY infection?

Kenyan natural living tribes Maasai and Hazda run at 125 nmol.L  serum 25(OH)D and are our best indication of ancestral physiological levels. Closely related Ubuntu who live in cities have 75 nmol/L year round, UVB is absorbed by windows.The C-19 death rate in Kenya, with a popualtion the size of Wales is lwo: 500 versus 2500 in Wales, when 5% of Kenyans were sero-posititive.

D3 is a sacrificial pro-hormone, and when cells are activated  its  conversion from 25 to 1,25 to inactive 1,2,25 OH is sped up. Unless we have  good sun exposure of decent rate of supplementation 25(OH) will fall. And with that fall our immune systmes fail. Mainitaining physiologgical 25 (OH)D is therefore of paramount importance and that needs around 4000 IU pd.

Peter

[AndyR100]

37 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said:

400 IU pd  Its only advised for bone and muscle health not for C-19. NICE who adivse NHS claims there is no evidence for role of D3 in combating nC-19.

But a long list of internationl scientists and clincians disagree, and they decalre how many IU they take personally, typically 4000 IU pd  https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html

Peter

Yep, i am aware of the formal position of Regulatory bodies and NHS - i was simply saying that i'll know exactly what is being provided as part of the free suplemental-provision for those in the EV category when my pack arrives.

..... Andy

[Peter Cobbold]

2 hours ago, Mick Forey said:

Population distribution by age is dramatically different from Northern Europe and USA. A friend from South Africa described it as a young country and getting old is not an option for many people.

 

This is why yhe new South AFrica variant is of such concern. It seems to have evolved to cuase serious sickness in youngsters, though 6 spike protein mutations.It is possible that current vaccines may nto work effectively against the SA virus and rapid tests too eg flow-test. (PCR tests in labs are easy to tweak). It is quite possible anew vaccine will be needed, and for all 60 million of UK population not only the  oldies. Twice..

The idea that stopping direct travel from SA will inuslate UK is nonsense, it can only delay it. Large areas of the planet are populated by young population where the virus is allowed to spread out of control, iit will reach UK willy nilly.

Fortunately for those of us in the know, our innate immunity, given enough D3, inacitvates all forms of enveloped virus including SARS-CoV-2. Vaccines only make antibodies whereas innate immunity makes anti-mcirobial peptides that work like antibodies and hinder spike binding to cell receptrs but also disrupt the virus envelope and "killing" it before it gets into a cell. Vaccines are human inventions and nowhere near as clever as our innate first line of defence thhat has honed itself over 500 million years of evolution. GIven anough D3 our saliva and other mucosal  secterions are continually replete with defensive antimicrobial peptide killing bacteria, fungus, and viruses of all sorts. A globule of coronavirus is not going to escape the cathelcidin, defensins, lysozyme and the dozens of other AMPs lying in wait to inactivate all-comers. However if our D3 is low, as in most UK population and globally, these defences are below par, especially in winter (no sun) and we get seasonal flu,"colds" etc. Take 4000 IU pd D3 and these are abolished. It follows that D3 supplements costing pence per day are a smarter, cheaper, easier, and more efffective defense against any variant of SARS-COV-2 and the days of relying solely on mass re-vaccinations are drawing closer. Paradoxically the South Africa is a good thing as it will likely bring D3 inot  sharp focus.

Peter

[Peter Cobbold]

3 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

But back to the VitD idea.     I also read that the impact of Covid in Africa has been nothing like as bad as feared, especially given the state of many health services.  South Africa is probably best placed to record and manage infections, and they have had 200,000 in a population of 60 million, or 300 per 100,000.    That's the same population as the UK, and we have had 3 MILLION cases.     The SA CMO has no definitive explanation, except to suggest that they have a relatively young population.

VitD levels in South Africans are "sufficient", according to Norval et al, but that is at a level which the enthusiasts above would consider grossly insufficient.     So VitD is NOT the reason why Africans in Africa are escaping the worst of the pandemic.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5086758/#:~:text=The levels of 25(OH,to the cultural preference to

The mean 25(OH)D is around 75 nmol/L in youngesters who are heavily infected -ca 50% of popualtion with SARS-COv2- with some seriously ill. The new variant has evolved to infect the young more effectively despite thier D3 status being better than UK mean of 50 nmol/L.

HIV infection is high anf that may well depress thecytokine storm and hence deaths.

Peter

[john.r.davies]

Carfeul, Peter,

You have powerful arguments, but to say that "Vaccines only make antibodies whereas innate immunity makes anti-mcirobial peptides that work like antibodies and hinder spike binding to cell receptrs etc" ignores the fact that the vaccines so far approved stimulate the production of antibodies to the spike proteins.      Those antibodies bind to the spikes, inactivate them and attract other components of the immune system, in particular neutrophils that secrete active molecules such as peptides to destroy the viral particles.

Further, peptides do not "work like antibodies".   They are both parts of the complex immune system, with their own functions which are complementary.  

John

[Peter Cobbold]

22 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

Carfeul, Peter,

You have powerful arguments, but to say that "Vaccines only make antibodies whereas innate immunity makes anti-mcirobial peptides that work like antibodies and hinder spike binding to cell receptrs etc" ignores the fact that the vaccines so far approved stimulate the production of antibodies to the spike proteins.      Those antibodies bind to the spikes, inactivate them and attract other components of the immune system, in particular neutrophils that secrete active molecules such as peptides to destroy the viral particles.

Further, peptides do not "work like antibodies".   They are both parts of the complex immune system, with their own functions which are complementary.  

John

John You quoted me incompletely and missed out the bit about innate anti-microbial peptide inactivating the virua by disrupting tis membrane, Vaccine indiced antibodie cannot do thta. All antibodles do is compete with cell ACE2 receptors to bind to the spike protien, The innate agnets such as cathelicidin do that too, but with far wider traget range- they will bind to all virus variants spike protein and hinder cell uptake

Yet another variant has been announced in Japan. There will again be concerns that it will circumvent the present vaccines rendering them less effective. Innate immune systems  regulated  by D3 avoid will tackle that variant too, disrupting the envelope membrane, lysing the particle and destroying its viability. Antibodies induced by vaccines cannot do that, it is beyond current technology.

In other words vaccines are an incomplete therapy  with many disadvantages over D3-innate immunity. Far from being comptlementary, D3 will make vaccines redundant. If that seems miraculous then recall that no nation has anywhere near physiological D3, we are all deficient in innate immunlty. Correct that and the pandemic will rapidly be overcome.

Neutrophils are a late response to an infection. The innate AMPs are , given good D3 levels, present 24/7, BEFORE any SARS arrives, its nipped in the bud (lysed) before it gets near epithelia. No doctor anywhere has ever worked with a population with all her pts having top-rate innate immunity. When it is rolled out globally either form sun or supplements D3 will be seen as miraculous and vaccination for enveloped viruses outdated, cumbersome, and ineffective  in the face of rapid viral evolution.

Peter

[john.r.davies]

I'm sorry, Peter.   Your arguments were beginning to make me think you had  a point, but "D3 will make vaccines redundant." is overstating it by a long way.

There never was and never will be a 'magic bullet' for any disease.

John

Edited January 10, 2021 by john.r.davies

[Bleednipple]

12 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

I'm sorry, Peter.   Your arguments were beginning to make me think you had  a point, but "D3 will make vaccines redundant." is overstating it by a long way.

There never was and never will be a 'magic bullet' for any disease.

John

But there have indeed been 'magic bullets' for some diseases. Perhaps not a close equivalent but an obvious one would be scurvy: citrus fruit was effectively proved as virtually 100% preventative through observational studies in the 1740s and 50s, but nevertheless it took a further 40 years before the government formally adopted it as a prophylactic for issue to sailors. And in fact in the end it was naval commanders themselves who ordered its use, rather than the medical establishment who mostly continued to deny its efficacy.

The Guardian article linked above seems to me a decent summary of how a weight of opinion is shifting towards Vit D for covid prevention, while the health authorities dig in their heels. Nice may eventually be right but I must say I was particularly struck by their reported conclusion that "“For now, recommendations for vitamin D supplementation to lessen Covid-19 risks appear premature and, although they may cause little harm, they could provide false reassurance leading to changes in behaviour that increase risk of infections.” I couldn't help but recall the War Office's justification for not issuing parachutes to aircrew throughout the First World War "...because it might impair a pilot's nerve".

(Just for full disclosure, I've been taking D3 for quite a while, at about 1,500 IU/day. It might make no difference but I can personally see no downside.)

Nigel

 

[Peter Cobbold]

18 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

I'm sorry, Peter.   Your arguments were beginning to make me think you had  a point, but "D3 will make vaccines redundant." is overstating it by a long way.

There never was and never will be a 'magic bullet' for any disease.

John

JOhn, careful, medicine has never experienced a D3-replete cohort of pts.  D3 will be as close to a magic bullet as can be forseen. A hormone in whcih >90% of UK is physiologically deficient is ignored by medics. That hormone binds to receptors on our DNA at 23,000 sites per nucleus, and regualtes at least 450 genes, with thos so far described having defensive functions. Even a cursory look at vitaminDwiki shows the extent that D3 plays in health, its a long list.  Your evidence base is out of date, but excusable because few in your profession are D3-aware including most of clinical academics, globally. C-19 has found them lacking. The profession will change to embrace physiological D3, it is inevitable, othwerwise the pandemic will rattle around the globe, new variant by new variant, chased by new vax and new vax, for years to come. The benefits of good  D3, lifelong, to diabetes, autism, dementias, hypertension, cancers ( gut, prostate, melanoma etc) will appear to be miraculous. And clinical teaching will no longer relegate D3 to bone and nutrition.

Peter