CORONAVIRUS

[Waldi]

Hi Pete,

that’s the idea here. Facts, science health and economy are a great mix.
Our government indicates wearing a mask does not provide additional safety (“there is no scientific proof”), but large city’s like Rotterdam will make it mandatory. Clear mess(age).

Waldi 

[Motorsport Mickey]

How they manage to get a Job and retain it I’ll never know.

 

Matt Hancock has ordered an urgent review into the reporting of coronavirus deaths after it emerged that Public Health England (PHE) has "over-exaggerated" the true figures.

A significant proportion of the official daily death toll are people who have recovered from Covid-19 but then gone on to die of other causes, Oxford University experts revealed.

PHE's figures feed into the daily death statistics published by the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

Unlike in Scotland and Wales, where there is a 28-day cut-off, anyone who has ever tested positive for coronavirus in England will count as a Covid death when they die, even if that is months later and from an obviously unrelated cause.

Professor Carl Heneghan, the director at Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, said the true number of deaths from Covid-19 in England is likely to be at around 30 to 35 a day. He said that, under the current counting system, "no one can ever recover from Covid-19".

"A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a Covid death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later," he said.

The centre has calculated that there are approximately 80,000 recovered Covid-19 patients currently in the community. Many are elderly and would naturally be expected to die of age or other illnesses in the next few months or years.

Prof Heneghan said that, if all are counted as Covid-19 deaths, the official PHE toll could well exceed 290,000.

The disparity helps explain why PHE's out-of-hospital Covid death figures have remained stubbornly high, even though Office for National Statistics data shows deaths have been below the five-year average for the last three weeks.

Just when you thought politicians were the most incompetent group you could find, another group jumps in front !

Mick Richards

[Rod1883]

It often seems to me that certain entities, organisations etc do their utmost to undermine everyone else's efforts to get through this crisis.

At best this is incompetence of the highest order, at worst it is close to a treasonous act

[Ian Vincent]

With regard to the issue of cause of death and the observation that PHE have been wrongly reporting Covid deaths, there is another very telling statistic, namely: excess deaths over those that would normally expected for the time of year.

Unfortunately, those excess death figures still show the UK as having done particularly badly in controlling the epidemic.

Rgds Ian

[Rod1883]

I fully agree Ian - total excess deaths is the overall measure. I imagine it will be some time before we will have the full picture of just what the real cause of those excess deaths were. Many will be the virus itself, and I'm sure there will be a significant number associated with absence of treatment of other conditions because of the focus on Covid.

I do wonder though just how honest/accurate many other countries figures are. Perhaps we have a number of things that compound the impact of the virus - population age, density, obesity rates, ethnic mix etc etc

Edited August 4, 2020 by Rod1883

[Motorsport Mickey]

1 hour ago, Rod1883 said:

I fully agree Ian - total excess deaths is the overall measure. I imagine it will be some time before we will have the full picture of just what the real cause of those excess deaths were. Many will be the virus itself, and I'm sure there will be a significant number associated with absence of treatment of other conditions because of the focus on Covid.

I do wonder though just how honest/accurate many other countries figures are. Perhaps we have a number of things that compound the impact of the virus - population age, density, obesity rates, ethnic mix etc etc

“The latest Office for National Statistics data shows that deaths in England and Wales are now slightly below the five-year average. There are fewer than a few thousand people in hospital with the virus and about 150 on ventilators. In London, there are fewer than 50 new cases most days, in Manchester it is less than a dozen and the entire South West’s case numbers have been in the single digits for the last week.“

Professors Yoon K Loke and Carl Heneghan, who discovered the statistical flaw, explain. Adam Smith institute.

Does that give you an inkling of where we should by lying In the Covid league table with our reflected excess deaths position ?

Mick Richards

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Motorsport Mickey

[Peter Cobbold]

We are in the calm before the storm, the low numbers now are likely due to................sunshine and D3 made by it. Solar D3 lasts twice as long ie its helf life is double that of supplemental D3. In an infection D3 gets used up, so the extra D3 we make in summer sun is more effective at tackling viruses than D3 from supplements in winter. After September little solar D3 will be made so unless we supplement, our stores decay and resistance to severe infections declines though winter. Official advice is to supplement with 400 or 800 IU pd, but it is not broadcast as far as I can see. " Colds" and 'flu will also use up D3 so if SARS-CoV-2 follows a 'cold' the outlook for those pts looks grim. I cannot see lockdown being avoided unless by some miracle a vaccine is available, even so many elderly fail to respond effectively to 'flu vaccines. I am planning ahead for self isolation throughout winter.

Oz - Melbourne - is now at the stage of running out of solar D3, and numbers are soaring. In six months I reckon we will see much the same.

Peter

[little jim]

13 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

 

Oz - Melbourne - is now at the stage of running out of solar D3, and numbers are soaring. In six months I reckon we will see much the same.

Peter

Suspect there is a bit more to it than that Pete.

Tasmania is quite a bit a bit further south than Melbourne and covid rates are much lower, and recently nil.

Further south still, is New Zealand, where they have nipped it in the bud completely, despite winter levels of D3 generation. Perhaps it is just one of many contributing factors; the experts are certainly rating personal contact (or lack thereof) as very high on the list.

[Motorsport Mickey]

24 minutes ago, little jim said:

Suspect there is a bit more to it than that Pete.

Tasmania is quite a bit a bit further south than Melbourne and covid rates are much lower, and recently nil.

Further south still, is New Zealand, where they have nipped it in the bud completely, despite winter levels of D3 generation. Perhaps it is just one of many contributing factors; the experts are certainly rating personal contact (or lack thereof) as very high on the list.

Well that's where New Zealand scores heavily little Jim, with a population of 4 million people spread over the same surface area as that of the UK against our 60 plus million and with our very tight population crammed into a couple of dozen or more conurbations along with heavily inhabited areas in between. If NZ had quite a few large cities of millions headcount I think their numbers might be considerably different, and especially if they adopted the PHE method of mortality count where anybody who had caught Covid in February but then recovered only to have been taken and eaten by a Great White last week whilst surfing was counted as a Covid death ! 

Mick Richards 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Motorsport Mickey

[Peter Cobbold]

It is curious that the UK in summer with far greater freedom of movement than in lock-down experiences far fewer deaths. Yet the time spent outdoors will only be an hour or so longer out of each 24. I dont see inactivation of the virus by heat or sunlight doing that. Rather I suspect the benefits of buffered serum 25(OH)D3, induced by around 15 min of sun exposure daily, leads to a greater level of symptomless infections who do not get tested. Without random testing we cannot tell.

Aberdeen residents will have much less solar D3 than most of UK. Leicester and Blackburn have large BAME communities who are averse to sunbathing. The raised infection rates in those cities may be a clue too.

Peter

[barkerwilliams]

Ian,

Excess Deaths.

I see the UK's excess deaths are now being reported as below average. I would expect that any patient with the infamous comorbidities and possibly a life expectancy of several months who caught and succumbed to Coronavirus thus becoming an "excess death", or more correctly a premature death would, in dying early obviously not feature in the later months statistics. It therefore becomes rather difficult to quantify "excess deaths", selecting a longer period to compare the figures simply eliminates any spike in the figures.

What I find totally unforgivable is the absence of any reliable figures on the numbers of deaths and their precise location, to wage any war you first need to know the enemies deployment and strengths but the NHS seems to prefer to wage a political war against the government and the people - just ask those on ever expanding waiting lists viewing the empty hospitals.

Alan

 

[SuzanneH]

41 minutes ago, barkerwilliams said:

Ian,

Excess Deaths.

I see the UK's excess deaths are now being reported as below average. I would expect that any patient with the infamous comorbidities and possibly a life expectancy of several months who caught and succumbed to Coronavirus thus becoming an "excess death", or more correctly a premature death would, in dying early obviously not feature in the later months statistics. It therefore becomes rather difficult to quantify "excess deaths", selecting a longer period to compare the figures simply eliminates any spike in the figures.

What I find totally unforgivable is the absence of any reliable figures on the numbers of deaths and their precise location, to wage any war you first need to know the enemies deployment and strengths but the NHS seems to prefer to wage a political war against the government and the people - just ask those on ever expanding waiting lists viewing the empty hospitals.

Alan

 

Here in our NHS Authority our hospitals are opening up for operations and have done so since June 2020.

Indeed two member of this household ( the only two members)  have each had an operation recently. Roger had major surgery at Charing Cross Hospital on 7/7/20 after it being cancelled twice in the previous two months and I had an eye operation on 3/8/20 having had my pre opp checkup just before lockdown on 5/3/20. 
I will add that I am still waiting for a hip replacement which in February was estimated to take place in about November 20 but who knows when it will be now.

[little jim]

Mick,

I think the kiwis are pretty happy with there Covid death rate at 1 per 219,192 head of population, as against the UK rate of 1 per 1,463 head of population.

Oz is doing 1 per 101,210 head of population.

Stepping in early with isolation measures looks like it has more effect  on the numbers than the amount of sunlight, to me anyway. 

[Motorsport Mickey]

2 hours ago, little jim said:

Mick,

I think the kiwis are pretty happy with there Covid death rate at 1 per 219,192 head of population, as against the UK rate of 1 per 1,463 head of population.

Oz is doing 1 per 101,210 head of population.

Stepping in early with isolation measures looks like it has more effect  on the numbers than the amount of sunlight, to me anyway. 

I don't think you get the point here littlejim, the UK rate of 1 per 1,463 per head of population is being incorrectly counted. For whatever reason auditing authorities are now convinced it is badly toted up and includes many, many nonCovid attributable cases, as per the example I gave you about being counted as a Covid mortality MONTHS AFTER recovering from the virus and without it being a contributory cause.

I could understand it if the person died from an airways related illness which the Covid exacerbated  ie pneumonia but apparently it's being certified as cause of death even when there is no correlation of that being the defining mortality. The sunlight boosting D3 numbers is an all round immune system boost and helps prevent many conditions developing, it can't prevent person to person access which as you say is better accomplished by isolation...the earlier the better. Sadly for many northern climes countries the scientists say Covid seems to develop faster and more efficiently at about 4 deg C conditions which will prevail here from any particular time November through till March next year, happily for Oz those better bug breeding temps aren't doled out at too many places. New Zealand has places which certainly get into those areas but as said their population is well spread  (natural isolation measures) and will benefit from it.

Mick Richards

Edited August 6, 2020 by Motorsport Mickey

[Peter Cobbold]

For the enthusiast, here is the latest review of roles of D3 in COVID etc.

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/aop/eje-20-0665/eje-20-0665.xml

The third author Hewison is on record as taking 2000 IU pd., significantly more than official advice.

Peter

 

[boxofbits]

My contribution to this thread is a video from Dr Grundy, a heart surgeon from the United States, who among much other advice on the general strengthening of the immune system , also talks  about the benefit of vitamin D. ( I'm hoping this one is not a quack !)

Another one on surprise foods which previously you might think are healthy but are in fact dangerous.

 

[Peter Cobbold]

Gundry isn't a quack, his publications are in cardiology. His focus on lectins in diet reflect a popular hypothesis that gut biota might influence brain health.. and maybe heart/blood vessels. However he is not a mainstream researcher in this area.  He might or might not be right on dietary lectins loosening the tight junctions between gut epithelial cells. Interesting that D3 promotes epithelial integrity. I have a bias towards thinking that a lot of this diet/gut biota/brain/heart stuff reflects the D3 deficiency of the population at large. And that at physiological 25(OH)D3 a lot of these diet effects, which are ill-defined and difficult to pin down, might disappear.

Peter

Edited August 7, 2020 by Peter Cobbold

[boxofbits]

3 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

Gundry isn't a quack, his publications are in cardiology. His focus on lectins in diet reflect a popular hypothesis that gut biota might influence brain health.. and maybe heart/blood vessels. However he is not a mainstream researcher in this area.  He might or might not be right on dietary lectins loosening the tight junctions between gut epithelial cells. Interesting that D3 promotes epithelial integrity. I have a bias towards thinking that a lot of this diet/gut biota/brain/heart stuff reflects the D3 deficiency of the population at large. And that at physiological 25(OH)D3 a lot of these diet effects, which are ill-defined and difficult to pin down, might disappear.

Peter

I agree Peter he’s slightly ‘quack-ish’ in that he is on YouTube and has quite a high profile selling books and medicines but seems his ideas none-the-less are well meant and being American they see nothing wrong in marketing and promoting knowledge and experience for financial gain.

 I can’t agree on de-aging though, that does seem quackery, though is he referring to the relative age of heart, lung and gut aging? He’s obviously one bright guy and doubt he is stupid enough to try and convince people they can live forever!

His ideas on vit D are much what you were talking about at the beginning of Covid which decided me to post them ( You may have already heard of him ).

I think his ideas appear to be outside the box on Lectins and he’s often derided by other medical scientists, but unless people like him do stand up and push the boundaries we will never make progress.

Its interesting that people see the threat from Coronavirus ‘in isolation’ rather than thinking more about the general health and strength of their own immune system/ gut etc which may well be a deciding factor of whether you can survive it or go down with it. When you look around in our own country why are so many people sick, in mobility scooters, overweight and probably unable to fight this, or the inevitable next threat of infection. In that respect his advice on diet etc is well founded and well worth a listen. 

Kevin

[Peter Cobbold]

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/is-there-a-link-between-vitamin-d-and-coronavirus/12566324

Oz yesterday ABC radio............................................wake up Beeb !

Peter

[Spit_2.5PI]

Vitamin D Supplements in September's Which? magazine pp. 32. They mention that deficiency is common, less sunlight in UK - worse if we're staying indoors. Hard to get enough from diet. Govt. advice 10ug/day. All stuff we know.

Quote

Keeping your vitamin D levels up is crucial for good bone, muscle and joint health. While it won't protect you against catching coronavirus, vitamin D supports the normal function of your immune system, so it can aid recovery if you do get sick.

Cheers, Richard

Edited August 21, 2020 by Spit_2.5PI
Highlighted sentence in quote from article.

[Peter Cobbold]

17 minutes ago, Spit_2.5PI said:

Vitamin D Supplements in September's Which? magazine pp. 32. They mention that deficiency is common, less sunlight in UK - worse if we're staying indoors. Hard to get enough from diet. Govt. advice 10ug/day. All stuff we know.

Cheers, Richard

Richard, I know of at least one signatory to that "10ug/day" (= 400 IU) official advice who is  on record as himslef taking 2000 IU pd. And he is an expert on the actions of D3 on the immune systems. "Do as I say, not as I do" comes to mind.

D3 from sunlight is more valuable in fighting COVID than from supplements, as we are seeing in the summertime fall in  deaths:http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/08/

His ebook is worth reading: http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/08/vitamin-d-and-covid-19-book-is-now.html

Peter

 

[Spit_2.5PI]

I've just highlighted the important part of the quote in my last post.

Thanks Peter. I've been watching Dr. Grimes blog posts. I had wondered if his book was preaching to the converted?

Richard

[Peter Cobbold]

10 minutes ago, Spit_2.5PI said:

I've just highlighted the important part of the quote in my last post.

Thanks Peter. I've been watching Dr. Grimes blog posts. I had wondered if his book was preaching to the converted?

Richard

 

Richard, There are an enormous number yet to be converted, globally. Those in the know cannot decide if offcial bodies advising on D3 are "Ignorant or ignoring", as in his book  section. I suspect the D3 panels of NICE and SACN have backed themsleves into a corner and will have to be disbanded to save face. Sadly the one body advsing 4000IU pd as safe was PHE. Peter

[ntc]

Interesting observation today had to park in a hospital car park today looking at houses in the area and this was for 6 hours there was a family from the Bame community in one house and the heating was running all day it was 19 c outside go figure?

[stillp]

I was reading something online a few days ago written by someone who claimed to be a specialist in osteomalacia, who had a colleague who was showing symptoms similar to ME. The author blamed this on increased calcium uptake due to the patient taking a 5 000 iu D3 supplement daily. Can't find the link now dammit.

Pete