JohnG Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Rod1883 said: I think that is a bit harsh. For weeks people, the media, businesses and opposition politicians have been asking for a road map to recover from lockdown. All have said trust us to use common sense and trust us to use our intelligence to do the right thing as we remobilise the economy - yet now as the first steps start to be discussed, all people can do is complain! Watching the news programs this morning I was getting quite angry at many commentators and interviewee's comments. If those people put as much effort into thinking about how to do the right thing as they seem to be into finding fault - then we will be fine. Agreed . . .harsh BoJo could have promised a bag of gold for everyone and still, all we would hear is moaning The news outlets, the political opposition of any hue and a lot of the population don't care what the message is, they just want to be heard. Yes it was pre-recorded . . . .should it have been live, with the chance for questions? No. Why? This way, we get 20 hours or so to mull over the general message, BEFORE, the full 50 page message is presented in parliament, where the offical opposition will have had proir copies and our MP's and apparently, some members of the public, will be able to question the PM about it. If the 20 or so hours were being used to think instead of shout inane comments, maybe we could make some real progress Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, john.r.davies said: Rod, Yes, he's been ill, but do you not expect the PM of the country to be fully functional, not missing on several cylinders? If he can't say what he meant to say, then it's not him that should be saying it. John That is a very fair point. I just worry about the need for all the negative comments, when, some quiet contemplation regarding the proposals, ready to question the PM this afternoon, might make for more sensible, thought out questions/comments Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rod1883 Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, john.r.davies said: Rod, Yes, he's been ill, but do you not expect the PM of the country to be fully functional, not missing on several cylinders? If he can't say what he meant to say, then it's not him that should be saying it. John Fair observation, but all I'm trying to say John is that rather than complain about what might have been a slight misspeak, everyone in responsible positions should be pulling together, not putting all their efforts into undermining. As wjgco John says, perhaps it was intentional to get people thinking before the further announcements today - it's just a shame we can't all think a little more positively when we are all facing the same enemy - the virus. Edited May 11, 2020 by Rod1883 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Anyone notice the brief mention of allowing sunbathing ? maybe the message is getting through to SAGE. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Spit_2.5PI Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Yes Peter, we noticed that too and wondered if the comment was inspired by D3. Cheers, Richard Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 34 minutes ago, Spit_2.5PI said: Yes Peter, we noticed that too and wondered if the comment was inspired by D3. Cheers, Richard Richard, yes, could be. If they follow it with instructions not to slip-slap-slop for the firsr 20 mins then I think D3 is definitely driving their change of rules. SAGE might have been alerted to this paper concluding that the low COVID impact in NZ and Oz is due to them being replete with D3 at the end of summer: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/apt.15777 - the main author was in same medical dept as an advisor to SAGE. Guessing thats what might have happened: "who you know not what you know" Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said: Richard, yes, could be. If they follow it with instructions not to slip-slap-slop for the firsr 20 mins then I think D3 is definitely driving their change of rules. SAGE might have been alerted to this paper concluding that the low COVID impact in NZ and Oz is due to them being replete with D3 at the end of summer: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/apt.15777 - the main author was in same medical dept as an advisor to SAGE. Guessing thats what might have happened: "who you know not what you know" Peter Peter I've stayed away from commenting on this discussion, although I have tried to follow it, the subject is one I have zero knowledge of . . . . . . . . At least, it was, until you started posting The relationship between being out in the fresh air and sunshine is always a tonic for most of us, even if we don't know why. Like all things, if it is good for you, most of the time you enjoy it. I would say however, that I never use suncream. What I do is catch the sun 'til I've had enough, then, move into the shade, if it's available, the shade of a decent oak tree! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Misfit Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 (edited) On 5/11/2020 at 1:12 PM, wjgco said: Agreed . . .harsh BoJo could have promissed a bag of gold for everyone and still, all we would hear is moaning The news outlets, the political opposition of any hue and a lot of the population don't care what the message is, they just want to be heard. Yes it was pre-recorded . . . .should it have been live, with the chance for questions? No. Why? This way, we get 20 hours or so to mull over the general message, BEFORE, the full 50 page message is presented in parliament, where the offical opposition will have had proir copies and our MP's and apparently, some members of the public, will be able to question the PM about it. If the 20 or so hours were being used to think instead of shout inane comments, maybe we could make some real progress Having listened to a TV morning show I’ve established, That as a result of Boris speech we will now have 1,000,000,00 of sons and daughters rushing to see us parents one at a time. With millions rushing out driving miles to take lots of walks and sunbath in parks, and play football or other sports with family members Transport buses and tubes will be over run because of relaxed rules because people that can’t work from home will be back in work. This will cause loss of thousands of lives. My response that is totally unacceptable what was he thinking. I need to listen to this idiot. Having listened, we now need those that can’t work from home (reference to the Construction workers and manufacturing works) need to go back to work. Not hospitality or retail at this time and only later if the number allow, guide lines to employers to follow, including distancing requirements. A request not use transport unless you need it, and a request to cover face should you have to. Now this has been said earlier, this area don’t have tubes and limited other transport. Most construction workers I know, use their own transport to ferrying them selves and tools to their place of work. Obviously other will be returning to work but surely, surely as individuals we have a responsibility to ourselves and others, from what was said 85% of the public have acted responsible. I know my daughters would not risk me or my wife and even if they would, I wouldn’t let them. I am able to distance myself and if when I got somewhere I could not I’d move on. Repeatedly he referred to caution and if necessary he will stop and lock down again. m Edited July 27, 2020 by Misfit Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Its a simple strategy, let those that can not work from home go to work "as safely as they can"......if we run into a problem with R increasing to 1 or above, shut down again. They are being used to test the water. You never know it might just work...............i'm staying well clear because I don't think for one second it will work watching peoples reckless behaviour. A new peak in 10 days time is my predication, which I hope is wrong. Iain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Misfit Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, iain said: Its a simple strategy, let those that can not work from home go to work "as safely as they can"......if we run into a problem with R increasing to 1 or above, shut down again. They are being used to test the water. You never know it might just work...............i'm staying well clear because I don't think for one second it will work watching peoples reckless behaviour. A new peak in 10 days time is my predication, which I hope is wrong. Iain Like Iain I too am hopeful that this strategy works because if it does not, and lockdown continues and keeps continuing, I believe the resulting economic recession, that will occur, will be horrendous, and non related Covid 19 death toll will be equally significant. I believe based on the fact 85% have already complied, like him the majority will remain clear of reckless individuals and hopefully the authorities will deal with them. The Government has confirmed that it will take whatever action is necessary, hopefully it will not be necessary. I also agree with Iain I hope his 10 day prediction is wrong. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, wjgco said: Peter I've stayed away from commenting on this discussion, although I have tried to follow it, the subject is one I have zero knowledge of . . . . . . . . At least, it was, until you started posting The relationship between being out in the fresh air and sunshine is always a tonic for most of us, even if we don't know why. Like all things, if it is good for you, most of the time you enjoy it. I would say however, that I never use suncream. What I do is catch the sun 'til I've had enough, then, move into the shade, if it's available, the shade of a decent oak tree! Exactly right. There are sunlotions and sunlotions and some are dangerous. Dermatologist who advise them amy not know about D3. An Oz study of dematologists' serum 25IOH)D3 found 87% were deficient ! The feel good factor has a real basis. 1,25(OH)D3 switches on genes that control serotonin synthesis. Serotonin is the anti-depression brain neurotransmitter ( that Prozac targets more expensively) Peter Edited May 11, 2020 by Peter Cobbold Quote Link to post Share on other sites
barkerwilliams Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Other links to wide ranging benefits of D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXw3XqwSZFo&app=desktop Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, iain said: Its a simple strategy, let those that can not work from home go to work "as safely as they can"......if we run into a problem with R increasing to 1 or above, shut down again. They are being used to test the water. You never know it might just work...............i'm staying well clear because I don't think for one second it will work watching peoples reckless behaviour. A new peak in 10 days time is my predication, which I hope is wrong. Iain London is going to light up, all that public transport.................. Wales is staying shut and for once I heartlly agree with the First Minister. But with only 4% seropositives outside London there is a looooooooooooooooooooong way to go without a breakthrough. Peter Edited May 11, 2020 by Peter Cobbold Quote Link to post Share on other sites
foster461 Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 We found no clinical evidence that vitamin D supplements are beneficial in preventing or treating COVID-19. We would need evidence from well-masked randomized trials to determine if there are effects, before recommending vitamin D3 supplements for treating or preventing COVID-19 infection. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/vitamin-d-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-treatment-or-prevention-in-covid-19/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 No surprises there then.......just reinforcement of the paucity of clinical data. Iain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) and again....https://sciencenorway.no/epidemic-virus-vitamins/can-vitamin-d-protect-you-from-covid-19/1682602 Tin Hat on waiting for a Peter to give me a good clout :-) Iain Edited May 12, 2020 by iain Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, foster461 said: We found no clinical evidence that vitamin D supplements are beneficial in preventing or treating COVID-19. We would need evidence from well-masked randomized trials to determine if there are effects, before recommending vitamin D3 supplements for treating or preventing COVID-19 infection. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/vitamin-d-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-treatment-or-prevention-in-covid-19/ Science is cut and thrust and subject to interpretation. That puff of a paper is padded with elementary info about D3 that the well read forumite will recognsie. And the rest says that the lack of trials means there is no evidence. It is poppycock. And the email above politely tells their head of department so. She did not reply. Peter Edited May 12, 2020 by Peter Cobbold Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, iain said: and again....https://sciencenorway.no/epidemic-virus-vitamins/can-vitamin-d-protect-you-from-covid-19/1682602 Tin Hat on waiting for a Peter to give me a good clout :-) Iain No mention anywhere of serum levels in Norway. She even claims: "" Most people in Norway have good levels of vitamin D, according to Dierkes. “We’re good at taking cod liver oil, and we consume fish and enriched milk.” But Norwegian clinicians who have measured it find a large percentage of population with deficienct defined as >50 nmol/L, with elderly, those in nursing homes and immigrnats worst. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228698999_Vitamin_D_status_in_the_Norwegian_Population/link/0046351405995907d4000000/download http://prntscr.com/sfm553 So all that codliver oil, fish and fortified milk is not having great effect. She has staked her colours on the wrong mast, the good ship status quo. Still, we cant all be right, and science needs its disseneters to progress. Noway according toher regards 50 as adequate, yet physiology says 100 to 150. Ir requires hubris to try to redefine waht evolution has bestowed upon us, But science always triumphs over the hubristic, and COVID will reveal the deeply flawed trials-based procdures used to try to defind the correct level, We know from Philippines, Indonesia, Louisians, India, Switzerland and Belgium that belwo 75 nmol/L raises risk fo severe COVID, above it is mostly mild. We have family in Norway including three medics- they all take 2000, their oldies 4000 IU pd. Better safe than sorry. Yes, I put the evidence before them. Peter BTW UK mean level is 43 nmol/L. So Norwegians fortifed milk/CLO/fish is not helping them much Edited May 12, 2020 by Peter Cobbold Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/tcd-vdd051220.php Eire taking the lead. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iain Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 Hi Peter this is just reiterating the guidance from PHE July 2016. Reinforced by NHS England on their website https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/ Iain PS Pm sent with some ideas Quote Link to post Share on other sites
john.r.davies Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) Just heard the latest issue of the excellent BBC Radio4 programme, "More or Less". It criticises and examines scientifically, claims of all sorts and the evidence they use to support them. This one featured VitD and Covid. You can listen to it at https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j2r7 The verdict was "Unproven". There is evidence that low VitD levels expose one to a greater risk of respiratory disease, but only observations, no controlled trials, that show this is true for Covid, or that Covid may be prevented or treated with VitD. Such trials are running now, in particular, the Covidence UK Study from Queen Mary's London, King's, Swansea, Queen's Belfast, Endinburgh and the Lonson School of Tropical Medicine: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/covidence/about-the-covidence-uk-study/ From that page, you can volunteer to join in and provide data, so lets all do that! And get this question answered. John PS I've just registered - some searching personal Qs, takes maybe half an hour. Edited May 13, 2020 by john.r.davies Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 3 hours ago, iain said: Hi Peter this is just reiterating the guidance from PHE July 2016. Reinforced by NHS England on their website https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/ Iain PS Pm sent with some ideas If that advice were publicised - which it is not - the uk public would reach a serum 25(OH)D3 of 50 nmol/L . This is too low to prevent severe COVID. We need to get to 75 or above where the risk of severity falls almsot 20-fold. Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
foster461 Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 Dr JoAnn Manson https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 3 hours ago, john.r.davies said: Just heard the latest issue of the excellent BBC Radio4 programme, "More or Less". It criticises and examines scientifically, claims of all sorts and the evidence they use to support them. This one featured VitD and Covid. You can listen to it at https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j2r7 The verdict was "Unproven". There is evidence that low VitD levels expose one to a greater risk of respiratory disease, but only observations, no controlled trials, that show this is true for Covid, or that Covid may be prevented or treated with VitD. Such trials are running now, in particular, the Covidence UK Study from Queen Mary's London, King's, Swansea, Queen's Belfast, Endinburgh and the Lonson School of Tropical Medicine: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/covidence/about-the-covidence-uk-study/ From that page, you can volunteer to join in and provide data, so lets all do that! And get this question answered. John PS I've just registered - some searching personal Qs, takes maybe half an hour. I would not sign up to any trial that uses D3 doses that fail to acheive >100 nmol/L annd that needs a daily dose of 2000 to 4000 IU od . If those trial use what NICE advises (400 IU) thay will fail. The vast majority of flu trials used 400 or 800 becasuce it is the dosee advised by NICE or Inst Med, and they failed to benefit except in the very seriusoly deficinet. Beware.- there is a circular argument inherent in trials that fail to embrace a wide raange of doses, anf fail to report 25(OH)D3. On that R4 prog, a colleague much more experienced with D3 than me ( a clinician) commnets "More or Less" Unfortunately an uninformed debate. Failure to realise the importance of observational studies (eg cigarette smoking and lung cancer), failure to understand the urgency of the problem, failure to understand how long peer review takes, failure to appreciate the importance of a preliminary report at a time like this, failure to appreciate that there have been 30,000 deaths in the UK, failure to understand the pragmatic approach of potential benefit versus potential harm, failure to understand the the difference between the daily doses of vitamin D necessary for bone health and immune health, total ignorance of the vitamin D controlled immune escalation in response to infection, == Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Peter Cobbold Posted May 13, 2020 Report Share Posted May 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, foster461 said: Dr JoAnn Manson https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152 Harvard ... I gather she is well regarded too. A scottsih journo with 56,000 followers has re-tweeted the video Perhaps we shall hear from Nicola S, snatching the initiative from BoJo. : take D3 and we will open Scotland for business safely Peter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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