CORONAVIRUS

[Misfit]

John 

Come on, I’m not sure what TV you are watching, original thought might be interesting occasionally. 

Questions asked and answered are asked again and again. Sometimes when I listen to Andrew Marr or Red Andy as he was know in his younger days I have cringe.  

Propaganda is communication that is used primarily to influence an audience and further an agenda, which may not be objective and may be presenting facts selectively to encourage a particular synthesis or perception, or using loaded language to produce an emotional rather than a rational response to the information that is presented. 

[john.r.davies]

Ian,

Did you read my post in answer to Roger's?   On the culpable lack of preparedness of this and previous Tory Govs?   Prepared governments, see South Korea,  acting on previous warnings and experience,  have allowed their populations to escape widespread infection, without even lockdown.    This lot started to check and quarantine as advised by WHO and acted upon by other nations eg Germany, but then gave up because their previous policies of austerity and 'running down the state'  had made that impossible to pursue.    Lockdown, "Save the NHS" and Herd immunity were all that was left, at the bottom of the policy barrel.

Best wishes to your D-inLaw!     My family are not working in ICU, but I have still feared for them, seeing newly admitted patients.    They assure me that they do have sufficient PPE now, at the level they need.   Your D-inlaw wil need the highest, I feel for her.

[john.r.davies]

Derek,

My original thought, or that of interviewers?     It was the late, great Robin Day,  who wrote that at when interviewing politicians, he kept at the front of his mind the question, "Why is this b4s74^d lying to me?".  He died twenty years ago, but his lesson for journalists still stands.    And the - thank goodness, still living - Jeremy Paxman, who asked the then Home Secretary the same  question twelve times in the same interview, because he would not give an answer.     When bluster and diversion are the politicians response, asking the same question may be as revealing as a guilty answer.

I'm sad as well as angry at the state we are in, but that is becasue I am informed, not because I am influenced.

[iain]

Like Ian and John, we have a vested interest at the sharp end......our son working in ITU.

My concern is that the public have shown (certainly in the South West) a distinct change in behaviour this week. Traffic volumes are very much higher. Compliance with social distancing very much poorer. I think they think "its all over", because we have "reached the peak".........Boris needs to get a grip and fast before peak number 2 is on us.

Iain

 

[john.r.davies]

"They think it's all over"

Clearly so - today's Red Top front pages:

[Peter Cobbold]

DDDonald for POTUS again 

Most Americans are badly deficient in vitamin D3, raising their risk of severe COVID, due to inadequately primed innate immunity. If America-wide supplementation with 2000 to 4000 IU per day were introduced by POTUS to bring D3 to a physiological level, there is an excellent probability that USA could exit COVID without a terrible death toll. And in time for the elections. Unlike bleach, D3 could Make America Healthy Again. D3 deficiency is rampant in UK but with no signs of any action by SAGE. We should all watch Trump taking the D3 route to re-election with interest.

 

 

 

[Rod1883]

It would be funny if t wasn't so serious John. All those papers in your post, and the media generally, pressed so hard for a lockdown - now they can't wait to criticise and undermine said lockdown by second guessing the next steps and encouraging all and sundry to break the rules over this upcoming weekend. I bet we will be inundated with motorbikes again in this part of Sussex over the next few days.

 

[Bleednipple]

1 hour ago, Rod1883 said:

It would be funny if t wasn't so serious John. All those papers in your post, and the media generally, pressed so hard for a lockdown - now they can't wait to criticise and undermine said lockdown by second guessing the next steps and encouraging all and sundry to break the rules over this upcoming weekend. I bet we will be inundated with motorbikes again in this part of Sussex over the next few days.

 

Okay but come on, where do we actually think all the papers got their insights from about what's going to be announced on Sunday. From the government's daily pressers? PMQs? No way, the cabinet has leaked this for tactical reasons of its choosing. Fine, that's how they often use the media.

The clue is always the phrase "ministers are expected to announce...".

Always easy to blame the press for doing what the press do. If they challenge the official CO comms grid feed they get told they're being negative, or alarmist, or interviewing aggressively, or asking the same questions again (almost invariably because the govt chose not to answer the first time); if they don't, then they're propagandists, or only interested in ad revenues, or in pushing clickbait. 

Nigel

[Misfit]

3 hours ago, iain said:

Like Ian and John, we have a vested interest at the sharp end......our son working in ITU.

My concern is that the public have shown (certainly in the South West) a distinct change in behaviour this week. Traffic volumes are very much higher. Compliance with social distancing very much poorer. I think they think "its all over", because we have "reached the peak".........Boris needs to get a grip and fast before peak number 2 is on us.

Iain

 

+1

[barkerwilliams]

John,

"....Thanks, barkerwilliams, thanks a bunch.      As a time-expired NHS worker, retired from the frontline, but with a whole family of my children there, your brutal prescription is most unwelcome.  Over 100 of their colleagues are DEAD from Covid, in pursuit of your objective (and it apears the Government's) of Herd Immunity, a misused concept from the study of vaccination, not purposeful exposure...."

Would you seriously suggest that no NHS worker would have died if they had had other professions? in my post above on April 28 I wrote:

"..Any once else listen to Radio 4 "More or Less" on 22nd at nine? In that program they show that statistically the percentage of NHS worker Covid deaths are similar to percentage of working age deaths in the UK from Covid. Not trying to make a point just interesting that NHS workers seem not to have an excessive risk.."

Do you have information that shows that NHS workers are at greater risk than the wider community? I know and appreciate that we all would guess that the risk is greater but it would seem the figures do not bear that out . Even the lack of PPE has not increased the risk to NHS workers.

Sure as hell if I worked there I would want the full PPE space suit with filtered air just to work on the reception desk, and I would never go home to see the kids, but risk can be measured.

With no vaccine, no treatment and the necessity of easing of lockdown I reflect on your phrase of purposeful exposure.  What differing policy would you pursue, not what should have happened, not politics just what realistic path to follow now?

 

Alan

 

 

 

[Rod1883]

The situation here and in other countries is so hard to compare, and understand.

We all saw the health service in Italy being overwhelmed with scenes of what appeared to be seriously ill patients in corridors, and I think Spain was pretty hard pressed too. We've seen reports of riots in France against lockdown type measures.

Our NHS has, from the news reports, been pressurised but at no time (to my knowledge) have our ICU or High Dependency units been overwhelmed. Yes PPE has clearly been an issue, but again it seems from news reports it has been elsewhere too - even Germany.

We locked down and closed businesses, stopped people going out, etc. probably at as soon a point 'on the curve' as most in Europe - certainly when it became clear how serious Italy was being affected, and given where we were a couple of weeks or so behind them on that 'curve'. Our compliance has been pretty good too - although there are signs that it is beginning to be ignored by an increasing minority.

So why are we now, from the reported numbers, the worst nation in Europe and only second to the US worldwide for number of Covid-19 related deaths?

Is it because we are a global hub for international travel and we didn't stop/check/track arrivals into the UK as soon as things became serious - i.e. when the Italy numbers and situation took off?

Is it because we have an older population profile than many other nations - I don't know if that is the case or not, but clearly Care Homes are a major area of concern at present?

Is it because our island is more crowded than other countries of similar total population and so the virus can be transmitted more easily in and between centres of population?

Is it because we didn't have a testing infrastructure of any scale in place until just a week ago and so we just couldn't do enough testing to track and so pin down those with the disease?

Is it because we have more of an obesity problem (akin to the US) in this country when compared to other European nations?

Is it because we have a larger BAME community population than some/many other European countries?

Is it because our Vitamin D levels are lower generally than other European countries? From info in Peter's posts I'm not sure this is the case.

Clearly I don't know, and probably no-one does, or will until significant analysis is done in the year(s) to come. It is probably a combination of all the above, plus other factors too.

I do wonder though if it isn't time to start to get the country back to work, keeping good hygiene measures (hand washing etc) in place, and some physical distancing too. Perhaps certain sub sets of the population first - clearly younger people are less susceptible to serious affects of the disease, and with better testing and tracking/tracing it has to be the way to go before there is nothing to go back to. There are some commentators I believe that suggest the full lockdown was not necessary (e.g Sweden?)

Sorry for the length of this, just unloading thoughts - it is quite therapeutic.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Rod1883

[Bleednipple]

I think the govt now recognises that transmission in community settings is now very low, and the aggregate R0 (which govt maintains is between 0.5 and 0.9) is very largely driven by transmission in hospital and care home settings, only. They more or less acknowledged that at today's press briefing although they declined to give specifics which I find a bit frustrating.

So I think Cabinet will be prepared to go a fairly long way on relaxing lock-down measures next week. But we'll have to wait until Sunday to find out.

Nigel

[john.r.davies]

barkerwilliams,

Your statement "Would you seriously suggest that no NHS worker would have died if they had had other professions?" is comtemptible.

Yes, I do suggest that, and further more that their deaths may be due to the inadequate preparation by successive Tory Govs.

John

 

[Ian Vincent]

1 hour ago, Rod1883 said:

The situation here and in other countries is so hard to compare, and understand.

We all saw the health service in Italy being overwhelmed with scenes of what appeared to be seriously ill patients in corridors, and I think Spain was pretty hard pressed too. We've seen reports of riots in France against lockdown type measures.

Our NHS has, from the news reports, been pressurised but at no time (to my knowledge) have our ICU or High Dependency units been overwhelmed. Yes PPE has clearly been an issue, but again it seems from news reports it has been elsewhere too - even Germany.

We locked down and closed businesses, stopped people going out, etc. probably at as soon a point 'on the curve' as most in Europe - certainly when it became clear how serious Italy was being affected, and given where we were a couple of weeks or so behind them on that 'curve'. Our compliance has been pretty good too - although there are signs that it is beginning to be ignored by an increasing minority.

So why are we now, from the reported numbers, the worst nation in Europe and only second to the US worldwide for number of Covid-19 related deaths?

Is it because we are a global hub for international travel and we didn't stop/check/track arrivals into the UK as soon as things became serious - i.e. when the Italy numbers and situation took off?

Is it because we have an older population profile than many other nations - I don't know if that is the case or not, but clearly Care Homes are a major area of concern at present?

Is it because our island is more crowded than other countries of similar total population and so the virus can be transmitted more easily in and between centres of population?

Is it because we didn't have a testing infrastructure of any scale in place until just a week ago and so we just couldn't do enough testing to track and so pin down those with the disease?

Is it because we have more of an obesity problem (akin to the US) in this country when compared to other European nations?

Is it because we have a larger BAME community population than some/many other European countries?

Is it because our Vitamin D levels are lower generally than other European countries? From info in Peter's posts I'm not sure this is the case.

Clearly I don't know, and probably no-one does, or will until significant analysis is done in the year(s) to come. It is probably a combination of all the above, plus other factors too.

I do wonder though if it isn't time to start to get the country back to work, keeping good hygiene measures (hand washing etc) in place, and some physical distancing too. Perhaps certain sub sets of the population first - clearly younger people are less susceptible to serious affects of the disease, and with better testing and tracking/tracing it has to be the way to go before there is nothing to go back to. There are some commentators I believe that suggest the full lockdown was not necessary (e.g Sweden?)

Sorry for the length of this, just unloading thoughts - it is quite therapeutic.

I had a long conversation with my D-in -Law on these self same questions a couple of nights ago and her view was that:

1. Because we missed out on testing and quarantine at an early stage the extent of infection with the virus was an unknown and was much larger than anyone initially estimated - probably exacerbated by UK being a travel hub and London (and  other large cities) being densely populated.
2. The lockdown has not been as strict as in some other countries which means it has not been as effective in reducing the spread of the infection.
3. The failure to keep the disease out of care homes has had a particularly devasting impact on the figures.

Her view was that it was  unlikely to be as a result of our (as in UK) NHS being massively less effective than other countries and that if any country had a silver bullet treatment regime, we would all be copying it by now.

Rgds Ian

[Peter Cobbold]

No silver bullet for treatment but lots of emerging data for preventing severe COVID, and we know how it works and dosage, safety etc

In the following “normal” or “sufficient” vitamin D level was defined as 75 nmol/l (30 ng/ml)

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484 - 212 hospitalised patients in the Philippines:  nearly 20 times better chance of a mild clinical outcome vs critical outcome 
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561 - 780 patients in Indonesia, 380 died - but ONLY 16 died who had normal Vitamin D status. Insufficient Vitamin D in half of of the trial group as a whole BUT 96% of those dying.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20079376v1 - 186 hospitalised patients in Belgium had lower blood D-levels than controls. Authors recommend D-supplements
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1 - 20 patients in US in ICU - 84% of the critical patients had insufficient vitamin D levels
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1 - 20 European countries were compared, those with lowest vitamin D levels had highest mortality, particularly older age groups in Italy, Spain and Switzerland
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3593258 - 176 hospitalised patients in India, severe in 92% of insufficient, but only in 61% of those with sufficient blood levels

 

UK is "science led" ???  They are missing the elephant in the room

Peter

[Misfit]

8 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

Derek,

My original thought, or that of interviewers?     It was the late, great Robin Day,  who wrote that at when interviewing politicians, he kept at the front of his mind the question, "Why is this b4s74^d lying to me?".  He died twenty years ago, but his lesson for journalists still stands.    And the - thank goodness, still living - Jeremy Paxman, who asked the then Home Secretary the same  question twelve times in the same interview, because he would not give an answer.     When bluster and diversion are the politicians response, asking the same question may be as revealing as a guilty answer.

I'm sad as well as angry at the state we are in, but that is becasue I am informed, not because I am influenced.

John

I too am old enough and fortunate enough to have watched both these journalists in action.  A single journalist asking the same question in an interview 12 times because he interviewee fails to answer is one thing. Having 12 separate journalists asking the the same question to get the same answer is another. Hence my original thought observation. 
 

2 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

further more that their deaths may be due to the inadequate preparation by successive Tory Govs.

John

 

Their deaths here and abroad is the result of a shocking virus, which has been transported around the world. 

I wonder here if in your informed opinion you honestly believe that, had those  members previous running the Labour Party or even those current running the Labour Party,  been in Government they would be or would have been better placed to take us though this pandemic.

I recall a note left by a minister,  having just been removed from Government by the people, to a incoming Tory Government. 
 

[rog1]

You sound as if you are slipping back into your role as an insurance salesman Derek?

[Crawfie]

Slightly of topic....but t do with C-19....

it is my granddaughters first birthday on Saturday . My daughter is trying to make it a special day for her.

Morrisons ,near her home, have a party section and sell those helium balloons.

My son in law bought some and asked for them to be inflated ( this is the service !!)

Shop assistant.....Cannot do that....too close contact .

S-I-L.....why do you sell them then ?

shop assistant....shrugs shoulders

S-I-L.....I would like to return them then

Shop assistant....can't do that .....close contact

I know it's not an essential item, but .......really ???

 

Went  to ASDA.....no problems at all....

[Bleednipple]

13 hours ago, Ian Vincent said:

I had a long conversation with my D-in -Law on these self same questions a couple of nights ago and her view was that:

1. Because we missed out on testing and quarantine at an early stage the extent of infection with the virus was an unknown and was much larger than anyone initially estimated - probably exacerbated by UK being a travel hub and London (and  other large cities) being densely populated.
2. The lockdown has not been as strict as in some other countries which means it has not been as effective in reducing the spread of the infection.
3. The failure to keep the disease out of care homes has had a particularly devasting impact on the figures.

Her view was that it was  unlikely to be as a result of our (as in UK) NHS being massively less effective than other countries and that if any country had a silver bullet treatment regime, we would all be copying it by now.

Rgds Ian

I think the UK death rate can be very adequately explained by your first point Ian, pretty much on its own. As a result of the initial 'flying blind' and coupled with the initial assumptions about strategy, which were not changed until mid March, the UK did not impose its lockdown until 23 March. In the 7-10 days before that, the government was saying they would lock down "at the right time" but probably felt (wrongly) that the public would not stand for a protracted lockdown and the goal anyway was simply to keep critical cases below the national ICU capacity (which of course was achieved).

If we do simple back-calculations based on any nominal assumption about the starting point level of infection in the first week of March, it's a trivial exercise with a spreadsheet and approximate R values (I used R=2.5  pre-lockdown, R=0.9 post) to see that the level of infections, and hence the 'baked in' mortality outcomes for a proportion of those, by the Easter weekend peak would have been been only about 20% of what was actually experienced, if the lockdown had been imposed just one week earlier than 23 March.

Even if the lockdown measures had been substantially less strict than they were, say achieving R=1.2 (maybe something like the Swedish concept?) but still imposed a week earlier than 23 March, the deaths total would still only have been 40% of actual.

That's based on very crude factors, but it shows the huge sensitivity of the outcomes to the precise timing. I will be very surprised if, once all the analysis has been done in due course, the date of the lockdown doesn't turn out to have been the hinge factor in explaining the biggest part of the UK's mortality.

A bit like if you're coasting downhill and gaining speed and kinetic energy, whether you'll crash at the bottom is mainly about when you decide to apply the brakes, much less about whether you're on new or old brake pads once you've pressed the pedal.

Nigel

[Misfit]

On 5/7/2020 at 11:04 PM, rog1 said:

You sound as if you are slipping back into your role as an insurance salesman Derek?

 

No I’ve now moved on. 
m

Edited July 27, 2020 by Misfit

[RogerH]

56 minutes ago, Derek Hurford said:

 

No I’ve now moved on. 

Are you no longer in Devon ?

 

Roger

[JohnG]

23 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

"They think it's all over"

Clearly so - today's Red Top front pages:

 

John hi,

I think these pictures sort of help my cause.

Yes, I was extreme in my original post . . . Designed really to be brief and to highlight the lack of real percpective in the information we now receive.

Most, if not all those papers called for action to control the virus and now they want to retreat towards what they see as normal.

Was it the inimitable Peirs Morgan, then editor of the Sun, who said something about not reporting the news, rather, making the news.

They are all still doing it.

Listen to the tone of the shouted questions at any politician who shows their face.

Listen to the opinions offered by Laura and her ilk.

 

Maybe I was extreme in my earlier post, but, the sentiment was, in my view, pretty fair.

[Motorsport Mickey]

1 hour ago, wjgco said:

 

John hi,

I think these pictures sort of help my cause.

Yes, I was extreme in my original post . . . Designed really to be brief and to highlight the lack of real percpective in the information we now receive.

Most, if not all those papers called for action to control the virus and now they want to retreat towards what they see as normal.

Was it the inimitable Peirs Morgan, then editor of the Sun, who said something about not reporting the news, rather, making the news.

They are all still doing it.

Listen to the tone of the shouted questions at any politician who shows their face.

Listen to the opinions offered by Laura and her ilk.

 

Maybe I was extreme in my earlier post, but, the sentiment was, in my view, pretty fair.

Really John we should now be “ haranguing” these papers with questions along the line of “ you published incorrect information” ?... “who gave it to you” ?...” what steps did you take to check it “ ?... “ aren’t you you going to apologise for lying to the public ?”...” when are going to resign “? ... “ why aren’t you going to resign” ? etc which will be similar to their constant stupid behaviour.

Mick Richards

Edited May 8, 2020 by Motorsport Mickey

[Misfit]

should now be “ haranguing ” these papers with questions along the line of “ you published incorrect information” ?... “who gave it to you” ?...” what steps did you take to check it “ ?... “ aren’t you you going to apologise for lying to the public ?”...” when are going to resign “? ... “ why aren’t you going to resign” ? etc which will be similar to their constant stupid behaviour.

Mick 

I can’t find any of those above questions in any of these papers headlines. 

Clearly the Government have not got it all right,  of course we should call the Government to account 

 Of course the journalists and their papers would never lie or bend the truth or produce headlines and or content to help sell their papers or that might mislead just to suits their political view point. 

 

Therefore why would anyone suggest haranguing them when unlike the Government they get everything right without hindsight

We wouldn’t want to hold them to the same account as we do the Government 

m

Edited July 27, 2020 by Misfit

[JohnG]

5 hours ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

Really John we should now be “ haranguing” these papers with questions along the line of “ you published incorrect information” ?... “who gave it to you” ?...” what steps did you take to check it “ ?... “ aren’t you you going to apologise for lying to the public ?”...” when are going to resign “? ... “ why aren’t you going to resign” ? etc which will be similar to their constant stupid behaviour.

Mick Richards

Trouble is Mick, the very limited controls on the free press, preclude answers to your questions.

It would be nice if we could believe what we are told, but, I've found that by not believing a word the news industry tells me, I am rarely surprised and rarely disappointed