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1 hour ago, Tony_C said:

Have any / all of you seen the 2015 clip of Bill Gates warning / predicting this?

 

Have been trying to post it for a while... It’s either:

  1. Conspiracy Theory
  2. My IT skills are cr@p
  3. combination of above
  4. None of above

 

Worth a look if you have not already seen.......

 

Huh...if you check out the internet there's a wealth of websites/individuals predicting an oncoming Armageddon...Bill Gates ain't no Mystic meg.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00eUT2orMMF-Jc9Qddv9UFZ2s2_ng%3A1584541532731&source=hp&ei=XC9yXqaUKc-NlwSOw4C4Ag&q=predictions+of+pandemic&oq=Predictions+of+P&gs_l=psy-ab.1.7.0l10.1418.8448..12686...1.0..0.352.1606.12j3j0j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i131j35i39.IKkhUkf2QdA

Like the next Financial crash...it's always just around the corner and imminent, hell in this case one is likely to trigger the other, see I've just joined in the forecasting. The REAL trick is to be able to pick out the timing of the real McCoy and not just a look alike, this one is a possibility but as this fact checking website shows the 2014/15 flue epidemic resulted in 28,000 casualties whereas the last years flue was a real pussy at under 2000 deaths. The truth is only going to be established in another 12 months when the dust has settled (or we still battle it).

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Mick Richards

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1 hour ago, Peter Cobbold said:

I dont share John's bravura: shopping is high risk. Tesco delivers on-line orders and I expect that will soon be restricted to self-isolators and the over 70s. Morrisons open early for an hour solely for over 70s without family or neighbours to shop for them. A aged fmaily member in Norfolk has been delighted that the paper boy has offered to do her essential food shopping. Isolation is feasible with a little planning by us and the authorities. The most important thing is the old act responsibly and do not become a hospital admission. leaving the ICUs free for the younger parents who get COVID bad. I see that as my duty, as well as satisfying and instinct for self preservation.

Peter

I am considering using the Sainsburys over 70s hour tomorrow as it is difficult to get a delivery slot.  However it may still more risky than it appears as I am aware of several over 70s (including some with other underlying conditions) who seem to be taking pride in carrying on as normal.

Mike

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6 minutes ago, mike ellis said:

I am considering using the Sainsburys over 70s hour tomorrow as it is difficult to get a delivery slot.  However it may still more risky than it appears as I am aware of several over 70s (including some with other underlying conditions) who seem to be taking pride in carrying on as normal.

Mike

Mike,  Maybe safer to ask a local shop to bag up what you need and you just dash in and out to pay and collect.  Peter

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3 hours ago, mike ellis said:

I am considering using the Sainsburys over 70s hour tomorrow

I was looking at that, but it's the first hour of opening, i.e. 7 am to 8 am, and I wonder how many of the elderly rely on buses and will be unable to get to a Sainsbury's that early.

Pete

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Bravura?

I go shopping, when I come back I WASH MY HANDS.   My coat goes on the peg, I won't use it again until I go out again, I change my clothes and set them to wash.  Can't 'disinfect' my shopping, but it's what I touch, and who else has touched it, that is the problem.

This is in line with the Gov and scientfic advice, not bravura.

John

ps We hum "God Save the Queen" as we wash.   Did you know that the Americans hum "MyCountry 'tis of Thee" AND IT'S THE SAME TUNE!

Edited by john.r.davies
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Scientific advice is far from infallible. The high density of supermarket shoppers increases the risk of catching coughed aerosols, and surfaces for inadvertent hand to mouth trasfer of virus abound ( trolley handle, doors,key pad, etc )  It is about the higest risk environment short of an NHS waitng room. And soon snotty kids off school to add to the risk. Hand washing half an hour after inadvertently smearing virus over the face is no protection.

Peter

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We are told to hum the Happy Birthday tune twice while washing our hands with soap. I just learned that the soap is not just to wash the virus away, the virus has multiple layers that are not held together that well and the soap breaks the surface tension and the virus falls apart faster than a rusted TR. So soap up, get in between the fingers and under the fingernails and do it for 20 seconds.

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20 hours ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

on...Bill Gates ain't no Mystic meg

Very true Mick........... However, some how or other he managed to make a bob or two...

 

Even Meg never mentioned we’d have ‘the Army on the streets of London from Monday’

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The action of detergent on the fatty outer coating ( lipid layers) of the virus. Very effective if done properly, hence why Doctors scrub up so thoroughly.

Edited by iain
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1 hour ago, iain said:

The action of detergent on the fatty outer coating ( lipid layers) of the virus. Very effective if done properly, hence why Doctors scrub up so thoroughly.

Here is a very good demonstration.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tony_C said:

Very true Mick........... However, some how or other he managed to make a bob or two...

 

Even Meg never mentioned we’d have ‘the Army on the streets of London from Monday’

Probably because that's total speculation, as far as I know the armed forces support teams are being readied and trained but as to when and how they are deployed better ask Meg again lol. :lol:

Mick Richards

Edited by Motorsport Mickey
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17 minutes ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

Probably because that's total speculation, as far as I know the armed forces support teams are being readied and trained but as to when and how they are deployed better ask Meg again lol. :lol:

 

‘Cast-iron Nailed-on’ this one Mick, it’s been known for some time, Boris will tell us on Monday........ Albeit, from ‘someone who knows someone‘.....

 

(If / when it does happen.. you did NOT hear it here first!)

 

Should not be doing this... but, ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’........anyone reliably heard how Prince Philip is?

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Interestingly the Private Eye medical corresondent thinks the handwashing initiative is a considerable success, because there has been a reduction of hospital admissions for a number of contagious diseases.

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2 hours ago, Motorsport Mickey said:

Probably because that's total speculation, as far as I know the armed forces support teams are being readied and trained but as to when and how they are deployed better ask Meg again lol. :lol:

Mick Richards

Digging trenches ?

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I didn't know that one - I was thinking, "We'll all go together when we go!"

 

While we hope that his song is about a past threat, his preamble couldn't be more topical!

Edited by john.r.davies
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The Imperial Coll model that triggered self-isolation and school and univ closures.  Note fig 3A If restrictions are lifted the epdiemiv bounces abck a couple of months later.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

image.png

Edited by Peter Cobbold
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If they keep it up that long the economic recovery from the damage cause by the shut-down will take decades, not merely years as at present. 

Edited by RobH
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11 hours ago, RobH said:

If they keep it up that long the economic recovery from the damage cause by the shut-down will take decades, not merely years as at present. 

How long did it take Britain to recover from WW2 and have we actually recovered from it yet?

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image.png.72188951d4058d1de7ef87f0ecbd1916.png

This, from the Wiki page, shows that we did recover from the economic strains of either World War by the 1990s.   A lot quicker than we did after the peak of debt at the beginning fo the Victorian Age.

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Sue, we only finished repaying the loan from our "friends" the Americans back in - when was it? - 2005 or 2015, from when they pulled the (financial) rug out from under us days after the end of WW2.

Cheers, Richard

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A proper assessment at last:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

It seems the government response is being based on an assumed potential infection rate of 80% of the population ( in the IC computer model).

It is interesting that evidence from the Diamond Princess cruise ship showed an infection rate of only 20% in a closed community, across all age groups including the over-70s. It was ten days before the infection was recognised and after that isolation measures were reported as poor.  In approximate figures, of the 3700 people on board only 700 became infected, half of whom had no symptoms  - and of the other half,  7 died. 

 

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