CORONAVIRUS

[Ian Vincent]

The question I have been asking for the last few days is "Why does Germany have so few CV fatalities?"

I was discussing this with a friend who is a doctor during the week, at which point France had about 1800 cases and 31 fatalities, Germany had a comparable number of cases (1600) and 3 fatalities.  My friend said it was too early to draw conclusions and the numbers were not statistically significant as the sample size was too small.

This morning in the paper I see that France now has circa 4500 cases and 91 deaths whilst Germany with a similar number of cases (i.e. circa 4500) has had 9 deaths.  To me this looks consistent with the earlier figures and is statistically significant.

So does anyone out there know the answer?  Is it sauerkraut's influence on the immune system?

Rgds Ian

[Peter Cobbold]

52 minutes ago, john.r.davies said:

Quis custodiet?     All healthcare workers who are still helathy will be caring for theyoung sick.

A large proportion of elderly, ie 70+,  are heakthy and independent and capable of looking afte themslevs in protective isolation.

The dependent elderly  are at high risk from infected but symptomless carers. No answer to that unless the carers isolate with them.

 

[TorontoTim]

Hi Ian,

One theory that I read (from a proper study, not just a random thought - haven't got the source to hand) was that social structures in various countries are different in terms of younger adults mixing with older ones.

The hypothesis ran that the virus is introduced through business travel - mainly undertaken by early middle-age and middle age people, who (in Germany, for example) tend to have a large part of their contact with similar aged people and their younger family members in the home.  Therefore, as the virus spreads, it is generally spreading to those less at risk of dying.  Alternatively, in Italy, the social structures in Italy have several generations all living and socialising together; therefore, as the virus spreads it infects far more older (and at risk) people earlier in the epidemic, thus in these relatively early stages the death rate is higher.

I don't know if this means that, eventually, the rates will largely equal out everywhere as the virus spreads to a large proportion of the population, but I suppose time will tell.

Strong caveat:  I have no idea whatsoever if this is all sound logic but I honestly don't think putting it on here will impact how we react so I thought it interesting enough to share.

I hope you are all able to stay safe and healthy.  (and maybe panic buying of sauerkraut is just on the horizon...)

Tim

[Peter Cobbold]

I've never seen a German do a cheek-to-cheek greeting. Italy, France -yes. And our Dutch  friends...........three times. That behavioru is guranteed to increse the "multiplicty of infection" - the number of virus partilces transfrreed. A higher multiplicity meansa worse more aggressive illness and greater risk of death.

Just a guess

And sauerkraut breath ensures a goood 3m distnacing ?

Peter

Edited March 15, 2020 by Peter Cobbold

[Ian Vincent]

3 minutes ago, Peter Cobbold said:

I've never seen a German do a cheek-to-cheek greeting. Italy -yes. And our Dutch  friends...........three times. That behavioru is guranteed to increse the "multiplicty of infection" - the number of virus partilces transfrreed. A higher multiplicity meansa worse more aggressive illness and greater risk of death.

Just a guess

Peter

By a factor of ten?!

Rgds Ian

[Peter Cobbold]

1 minute ago, Ian Vincent said:

By a factor of ten?!

Rgds Ian

Compared with hand to mouth trasfer froma contaminated surface, or from a hnadshake, I'd expect it to be more than ten.

Peter

[Malcolm Tatton]

I have had a quick look but can't find anything about the testing regimes in each country.

Could it be that in France only those with severe symptoms are tested but in Germany there are more tests and so those with no symptoms are included?

Don't know the answer, but in the UK where those with mild symptoms are not even tested, how can we know the true extent of virus in the population and therefore how can we know the true level of fatalities as a proportion of those infected?

[john.r.davies]

3 hours ago, Peter Cobbold said:

A large proportion of elderly, ie 70+,  are heakthy and independent and capable of looking afte themslevs in protective isolation.

The dependent elderly  are at high risk from infected but symptomless carers. No answer to that unless the carers isolate with them.

 

4% are in care homes - more than a quarter of a million people

[PaulAnderson]

My partner’s mother is in a specialist dementia care home and all family visits were stopped on Friday.  So, as stated above it’s relying on staff remaining symptom and virus free.   A good idea in principle to keep the public out but with staff on near minimum wage I fear that they may be tempted to go to work as much as possible.  
Paul

[Misfit]

Having just returned from the Middle East and India,  I now have a runny nose and cough, I had always intended to self isolate. I don’t have a temperature,  (it’s just a cold) which I picked up on the ship as a girl that helped me in customer care, while sniffing. I checked she had apparently been tested twice for Covid 19 over a week so I’m confident it was not Covid19.

When entering Dubai we were interviewed when boarding the ship, everyone’s temperatures was taken before we boarded and more forms. When entering India, more forms and my temperature was taken again. Everyone on board was made to attend the disembarking area whether going ashore or not it was compulsory.

 When we arrived in Heathrow there was nothing, auto passport check gates opened and straight through.  There was a gentleman on board BA flight 198 Row 29H coughing with difficulty breathing when I brought  it to the attention of cabin crew they just asked him was he Ok he said yes and that was it. I later saw the cabin crew rushing to catch an adjoining flight. Hence I’m keeping clear of my family and everyone else for a week which runs out tomorrow night and even then not attending any events or gathering or visiting friends and  family for another week. 

We are told not to contact your Doctor or 111 unless you have a temperature/ fever but there are conflicting advice, I was far more confident at Dubai and Mumbai even when planning to transfer from Dubai to Singapore than I am now. So better safe than sorry as I have no wish to pass on anything even a cold. I just hope others will do the same.

M

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Misfit

[Peter Cobbold]

2 hours ago, john.r.davies said:

4% are in care homes - more than a quarter of a million people

96% are not and probably capable of voting.

Seriously though I agree that 4% are going to be in a desperate situation.

No answer I can see, The OH used to be matron of a Nursing home and said she would have had to isolate herself and staff with the residents.....for months

Peter

[stillp]

Another possible reason for the apparently low fatalities in Germany is their high number of ICU beds - about four times as many as the UK.

Pete

[Mick Forey]

An interesting analogy trying to illustrate why the timing of any large scale lock-down is important to get right.

Mick

 

[Peter Cobbold]

Mick, Neat analogy. I just hope the flow of the infected pts from the bucket has been predicted right.

A physicist's take on balancing the time-course is here:  https://www.volcanocafe.org/you-and-corona/

Peter

[Ian Vincent]

3 hours ago, stillp said:

Another possible reason for the apparently low fatalities in Germany is their high number of ICU beds - about four times as many as the UK.

Pete

That would only be a valid reason if the UK had reached capacity with its ICU beds. My understanding is that at this stage we haven’t, so the extra capacity in Germany is not relevant. 

Rgds Ian

[stillp]

Ian, I was responding to the question about why Germany has so many fewer fatalities than France for a comparable number of confirmed cases. I believe France has about the same number of ICU beds as the UK.

Pete

[Ian Vincent]

Pete,

Fair comment but do we know if France has reached capacity with its IC beds?

Rgds Ian 

[iain]

I think again this is just numbers being expounded as facts without all the underlying data.

Death rates are causing confusion because they are not all recording the same thing. 

i.e. Death caused by Covid-19 is not the same as died with Covid-19. The laters death in other words happened because of another causative factor

[Waldi]

On 3/14/2020 at 6:11 PM, Peter Cobbold said:

Iain.

If I  were Boris ( perish the thought):  Isolate evryone over say 65, the most at risk of death and who would block ICUs in the process. Isolate all of any age with seriously impaired health.

Let the rest, young healthy go about business as usual, and be infected, its most;y mild for them. While using the ICU capacity of NHS for those who are badly infected. They will provide herd immunity.

It will take until autumn, and by then there miight be a new vaccine or drug.

Pete

 

Peter,

we all have an opinion on this forum, but only few have a deeper insight/understanding (I’m just a simple engineer).

Your proposal looks better that the current strategy in our country which is based on creating group-immunity. I never heard of that last month, it suddenly is the pilar of our nations rescue plan A. Other more knowledgeable people than me say it should be plan C.
It will work, but as a side effect, many weaker persons could die. not just a couple of thousand, which is “normal” for an average flue here.

We (my wife and me) have also choosen for total isolation, not because of my age (that risk can be ignored in my case, I’m under 60), but because of a medical condition I have.

We will see how this develops, I hope that with time (couple of months?) the government is able to make more evidence based decisions and hopefully, fatality rates will reduce to “normal” by improved treatment and medication.

Stay safe,

Waldi

 

Edit: Oh, I forgot to mention the obvious: you are a specialist matter expert to me!! Please keep posting your thoughts.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Waldi

[Peter Cobbold]

22 minutes ago, Waldi said:

Peter,

we all have an opinion on this forum, but only few have a deeper insight/understanding (I’m just a simple engineer).

Your proposal looks better that the current strategy in our country which is based on creating group-immunity. I never heard of that last month, it suddenly is the pilar of our nations rescue plan A. Other more knowledgeable people than me say it should be plan C.
It will work, but as a side effect, many weaker persons could die. not just a couple of thousand, which is “normal” for an average flue here.

We (my wife and me) have also choosen for total isolation, not because of my age (that risk can be ignored in my case, I’m under 60), but because of a medical condition I have.

We will see how this develops, I hope that with time (couple of months?) the government is able to make more evidence based decisions and hopefully, fatality rates will reduce to “normal” by improved treatment and medication.

Stay safe,

Waldi

 

Edit: Oh, I forgot to mention the obvious: you are a specialist matter expert to me!! Please keep posting your thoughts.

Waldi,  We are both at a higher risk than normal, and also for age in my case. So total isolation is the  only option left to us. We ahve told family we dont expect to be free to meet them until late summer, maybe later. it will depend upon the numbers stil infected then, whether a drug is available and local NHS provision of ICU beds. We all take D3 as it should hlep tip the balance between a really seriuos infection and merely serious. Stay safe, Peter

[john.r.davies]

There are are over 12 million people over 65 years in the UK.   State isolation for all those into secure accomodation, feeding and caring for them would be impossible.   Anyway, I went on working for two years after I was 65!   As a doctor!   Gald I'm not there now, and b*gg*r*d if I'll go back.   Can't recall the drug names, let alone how to spell them!

But isolation is impossible anyway.     My neighbours would, I'm sure get my shopping, but one who is 90 has alreday refused my offer to do hers.    Can't be less independant than that feisty lady!

Too early to plant veggies, at least to crop in in time, I could shoot pigeons and squirrels for protein, but I'm a bit doubtful about that.   Shopping is a must, even if I become a hermit for everything else.

John

[Tony_C]

Have any / all of you seen the 2015 clip of Bill Gates warning / predicting this?

 

Have been trying to post it for a while... It’s either:

1. Conspiracy Theory
2. My IT skills are cr@p
3. combination of above
4. None of above

 

Worth a look if you have not already seen.......

 

[RobH]

Do you mean this one Tony?

 

[Waldi]

Thanks Peter, 

and John, we all make our own decisions, each with our own but different views, experiences, condition and importantly: possibilities.

Our son does the necessary   shopping for us, the rest will have to wait. 
 

To help me in my perseverance: I just received an mail with information for those with auto-immune diseases:

Avoid contact with others, also neighbours, friends and children and grandchildren. So my neurologists now officially agree with my approach, which I now have followed for 10 days and plan to continue.
Cheers,

Waldi

[Peter Cobbold]

I dont share John's bravura: shopping is high risk. Tesco delivers on-line orders and I expect that will soon be restricted to self-isolators and the over 70s. Morrisons open early for an hour solely for over 70s without family or neighbours to shop for them. A aged fmaily member in Norfolk has been delighted that the paper boy has offered to do her essential food shopping. Isolation is feasible with a little planning by us and the authorities. The most important thing is the old act responsibly and do not become a hospital admission. leaving the ICUs free for the younger parents who get COVID bad. I see that as my duty, as well as satisfying and instinct for self preservation.

Peter

Edited March 18, 2020 by Peter Cobbold